IMO, to have leverage in negotiating the other side of the ceasefire. Putin has not agreed to a ceasefire yet. Only Z has.
Now that Z has agreed to the ceasefire, POTUS is restoring the support for the purpose of getting Putin to also agree to a ceasefire as well. Until both sides agree, there is no ceasefire.
If POTUS did not restore the support, then Putin would have zero reason to stop aggression at all.
If I were a fly in the room, which I am clearly not, I would imagine Trump saying something like this to Putin.
I've gotten Ukraine to agree to a 30-day ceasefire so we can wind this down and save the lives of your citizens and theirs. Too many people are dying. You don't want to lose any more of your countrymen, and neither do the Ukrainians.
I've restored all support to Ukraine until you also agree to a ceasefire. Not only that, I am prepared to give Ukraine so much overwhelming support that you will lose every inch of territory that you've taken over the last 3 years. Remember those beautiful golden domes in Moscow we talked about during my first term? If you don't agree to a ceasefire immediately, you're going to lose those big beautiful golden domes, too. We'll wipe them out so fast you won't have any idea how we did it so quickly. We'll have to say bye-bye to those golden domes.
Agree to the ceasefire now, and you can keep the territory in the Donbas. We will ensure Ukraine never joins NATO. Oh, and you can keep your golden domes.
Not a credible scenario. Why would restoring aid to Ukraine be any worse than what they have already rolled over? The Russian requirements are simple and only need to be satisfied. It would mean Ukraine has to face the fact that it has lost, and the only difference in the outcome is whether they lose more men in combat. The Russians have so far spared the core electrical services, so there is always something worse they can impose on Ukraine. They have already been abjured by the West, so public relations mean nothing to them. Good PR is good if it aligns with their objectives ("What's the harm?"), but if not, it is useless and discarded. They really don't give a shit for anyone's opinion. Only for their reputation as a force to reckon with.
Leverage? Or an inducement? If Ukraine is willing to surrender, withdraw out of Russian and Novorossiyan territories and forswear any NATO membership, I think Putin would be happy to agree. He would have what he has always declared was necessary. The question is whether Trump can get Zelensky to do the right thing---but I am now coming to the belief that such a thing is impossible. Zelensky is at the mercy of powers that absolutely do not want the pacification of Ukraine. It could be his death warrant if he did agree.
If Ukraine wants to piss and moan about "security guarantees" and drag its feet at the last instant (which seems to be its style), the "deal" is no deal. Everyone forgets how the Eastern Front of World War II turned out. The residual Ukraine could end up as the only member of a "Kiev Pact" with Putin watching over their shoulders.
I will say that I admire the Russians. They behave like men, not like prancing dancers.
I agree that the prancing dancer is just a puppet.
As I've shared my belief elsewhere in this thread, the real proxy war is Russia vs NATO.
And NATO is being most strongly guided in this endeavor by UK and France, based on the prancing dancer scrambling to hug and huddle with Kier Starmer and Macron before and after his beatdown at the Whitehouse by POTUS and VPOTUS.
The Euro-Faction all want the US to fully commit to "boots on the ground" security in Ukraine. They do not want the war to end. None of them want peace. They all want US money, US equipment, and US soldiers if they can get them.
Not going to happen while Trump is POTUS.
Everyone calls Putin a liar, but the US and NATO lied about not expanding NATO eastward towards Russia. Time and again, those promises were broken, and with NATO on Russia's doorstep by making Ukraine the next to join NATO, Putin had enough and hit them hard. We would do the same thing if China or Russia was on our border. Look at the Cuban Missile Crisis as an example (which by the way, the US started by placing Jupiter Missiles in Turkey).
Shutting off the money and equipment was just as much, if not more, of a way to say to NATO "F-You." and not as much about saying anything to the prancing dancer. Z already showed that he is a puppet, and that's it. He holds no cards.
I do not think it is in Russia's long-term interest to be in perpetual war. I don't think Putin wants it to just keep going.
I'm not sure about all of the Novorossiyan area, but If Russia is offered the Donbas and is assured that Ukraine will never be in NATO, I would bet that he takes that deal and the war ends.
Do you really, honestly believe, that we can bully the country with:
The largest number of nuclear weapons.
Hypersonic missiles.
Oreshnik-like missiles.
A very strong and very capable military and the BEST continental military on the planet.
With a threat to bomb Moscow? Really?
This might work with Panama. Conversations between superpowers don't devolve to bullying or threats, because there is very, VERY little leverage that Trump has. And threatening Moscow with bombs is not it.
Pivoting to Russia, Trump said the same is true of Putin, who he claimed to have an excellent relationship with. He added that at one point, he told him: “Vladimir, if you go after Ukraine, I am going to hit you so hard, you’re not even going to believe it. I’m going to hit you right in the middle of fricking Moscow… We’re friends. I don’t want to do it, but I have no choice.”
According to the former president, Putin reacted with disbelief, saying “no way.” “Way,” Trump responded. “You’re going to be hit so hard, and I’m going to take those f**king domes right off your head,” he reportedly said, apparently referring to the Russian leader’s Kremlin residence.
“I don’t want to comment, because this statement was made obviously in the context of the election campaign and I don’t want to comment on it,” he told journalist Pavel Zarubin. Earlier, Trump, at a meeting with the editorial board of The Wall Street Journal, said that he allegedly threatened Russian President Vladimir Putin to strike Moscow if Russia “persecutes Ukraine.”
Putin noted that he does not remember a threatening conversation with the former US leader.
He also said that there is no point in threatening Russia - it only invigorates.
IMO, to have leverage in negotiating the other side of the ceasefire. Putin has not agreed to a ceasefire yet. Only Z has.
Now that Z has agreed to the ceasefire, POTUS is restoring the support for the purpose of getting Putin to also agree to a ceasefire as well. Until both sides agree, there is no ceasefire.
If POTUS did not restore the support, then Putin would have zero reason to stop aggression at all.
If I were a fly in the room, which I am clearly not, I would imagine Trump saying something like this to Putin.
Not a credible scenario. Why would restoring aid to Ukraine be any worse than what they have already rolled over? The Russian requirements are simple and only need to be satisfied. It would mean Ukraine has to face the fact that it has lost, and the only difference in the outcome is whether they lose more men in combat. The Russians have so far spared the core electrical services, so there is always something worse they can impose on Ukraine. They have already been abjured by the West, so public relations mean nothing to them. Good PR is good if it aligns with their objectives ("What's the harm?"), but if not, it is useless and discarded. They really don't give a shit for anyone's opinion. Only for their reputation as a force to reckon with.
How much leverage would POTUS have in negotiating a ceasefire with Putin if Ukraine has no defense at all?
Leverage? Or an inducement? If Ukraine is willing to surrender, withdraw out of Russian and Novorossiyan territories and forswear any NATO membership, I think Putin would be happy to agree. He would have what he has always declared was necessary. The question is whether Trump can get Zelensky to do the right thing---but I am now coming to the belief that such a thing is impossible. Zelensky is at the mercy of powers that absolutely do not want the pacification of Ukraine. It could be his death warrant if he did agree.
If Ukraine wants to piss and moan about "security guarantees" and drag its feet at the last instant (which seems to be its style), the "deal" is no deal. Everyone forgets how the Eastern Front of World War II turned out. The residual Ukraine could end up as the only member of a "Kiev Pact" with Putin watching over their shoulders.
I will say that I admire the Russians. They behave like men, not like prancing dancers.
I agree that the prancing dancer is just a puppet.
As I've shared my belief elsewhere in this thread, the real proxy war is Russia vs NATO.
And NATO is being most strongly guided in this endeavor by UK and France, based on the prancing dancer scrambling to hug and huddle with Kier Starmer and Macron before and after his beatdown at the Whitehouse by POTUS and VPOTUS.
The Euro-Faction all want the US to fully commit to "boots on the ground" security in Ukraine. They do not want the war to end. None of them want peace. They all want US money, US equipment, and US soldiers if they can get them.
Not going to happen while Trump is POTUS.
Everyone calls Putin a liar, but the US and NATO lied about not expanding NATO eastward towards Russia. Time and again, those promises were broken, and with NATO on Russia's doorstep by making Ukraine the next to join NATO, Putin had enough and hit them hard. We would do the same thing if China or Russia was on our border. Look at the Cuban Missile Crisis as an example (which by the way, the US started by placing Jupiter Missiles in Turkey).
Shutting off the money and equipment was just as much, if not more, of a way to say to NATO "F-You." and not as much about saying anything to the prancing dancer. Z already showed that he is a puppet, and that's it. He holds no cards.
I do not think it is in Russia's long-term interest to be in perpetual war. I don't think Putin wants it to just keep going.
I'm not sure about all of the Novorossiyan area, but If Russia is offered the Donbas and is assured that Ukraine will never be in NATO, I would bet that he takes that deal and the war ends.
Fren,
Do you really, honestly believe, that we can bully the country with:
With a threat to bomb Moscow? Really?
This might work with Panama. Conversations between superpowers don't devolve to bullying or threats, because there is very, VERY little leverage that Trump has. And threatening Moscow with bombs is not it.
No, I do not believe we can bully the country with the items you note.
I was simply pointing out that Trump already claimed to have threatened Putin with "hitting Moscow" and maybe he would follow through with it now.
Original story:
Trump claims he threatened Putin with strike on Moscow
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov's response:
Lavrov said that Trump’s threats to strike Moscow were made as part of PR
Yes but that was in 2019.
Anyway, I'll take your 48-hour offer. Let's revisit this in 48 to 72 hours :).
How about 24 hours?
u/#correct u/#SmirkingTrump
Sounds good. I appreciate your comments, as always, fren.