Tariffs and competition are linked at the hip. And there are many combinations. Also you have to look at who has the power. The buyer or the seller. In almost all cases, the US (the buyer), has the power. Walmart is making China eat the tariffs.
The Trump tariffs are far more complex than all these detractors can understand.
And they are just one moving piece of the economic puzzle. Any tiny increase in consumer costs will be more than offset by the other economic measures. What is the biggest cause of inflation? Money for nothing. DOGE is chewing that up quickly. Demand will go down with the deportations. Energy prices that are in everything are already starting to go down. And the private sector expansion going on will more than offset the government job losses.
Next, examine your monthly bills. How many will be affected by tariffs? Almost zero. And big ticket items are usually bought using payments. They would only change by a few dollars and those dollars will likely be offset by lower interest rates.
What is the biggest cause of inflation? Money for nothing.
Something almost no one understands anymore. We've been lied to all my life about the benefits for deficit spending. And I remember when Dems used to argue in favor of a balanced budget, which was code for, we're going to steal the SS surplus and increase taxes but no promise that will keep up with our spending.
Exactly. Deficit spending policy that the democrats use creates a boom, bust, stagnation economy. During the last 4 years they tried it on steroids and shoved a lot of money into their own pockets. Leaving the bust scenario for Trump. But Trump already had a plan. Before the election, I had already played out the plan to see how it would pan out. That is why I said that historians would call this the Golden Age of Trump. Trump is more modestly calling it the Golden Age of America.
You're completely correct on all fronts, and I would just like to supplement your thoughts with some information I've picked up in my own research. I've been thinking about creating a post that would attempt to give readers 360° coverage on this tariff issue - but its no easy task because of the sheer amount of other issues this will touch and effect. The real scope of what Trump has done with these tariffs is only now starting to come into view, I think.
The implications are massive, its easily the biggest single thing he's set his sights on, the border being the only other thing that's even comparable. This has the potential to be the final nail in globalism's coffin - and maybe even trigger a reset of the entire world order... but we'll save all that for another time.
And they are just one moving piece of the economic puzzle. Any tiny increase in consumer costs will be more than offset by the other economic measures
According to Scott Bessent in the interview with Tucker yesterday, Treasury recently received some economic research from MIT concerning Trump's tariffs from his first term, which was a 20% tariff(on China, hopefully no one needed to know that). Without getting too complicated we can just allow that the cost of a tariff is split between several parties.
According to Bessent, the research found the price increase from that tariff was around +0.7%. READ THAT AGAIN.From a 20% tariff on China, the actual price increase to the consumer was 0.7% ...
This doesn't mean the new round of tariffs will have that same ratio when it comes to price hikes, but it certainly DOES help provide clarity and calm some nerves.
What is the biggest cause of inflation? Money for nothing. DOGE is chewing that up quickly
Government spending is THE ONLY thing that can cause inflation. Those words belong to Milton Friedman, who I very much admired as an Economics student. As all the hysterics and prattling have begun and now become nearly deafening, I have continued to consider this statement. Are tariffs a form of government spending? Doesn't seem obvious to me that they are, but Jerome Powell certainly knows more than I do... (right? RIGHT!?!?)
Positing that, I will say that a scenario of stagflation is possible (having been documented before in relation to tariffs).
Demand will go down with the deportations. Energy prices that are in everything are already starting to go down. And the private sector expansion going on will more than offset the government job losses.
Of course the private sector moves WAY faster than our lugubrious government (and the snails and slugs who populate it). To that end, I do not have much belief or respect for the myriad time frames that have been carelessly thrown around by people who appear to have no expertise or credentials on this topic.
How do you know that it will take 4 years and maybe a couple more to bring back "manufacturing" writ large from offshore? What about plants that moved to Canada or Mexico, will it take them equally as long? Are we taking over an abandoned factory or building from scratch, and what industry will be coming back, and what is the capacity required?
Consider the rollout for COVID and then ask yourself if Trump would take similar measures ESPECIALLY for those designated as strategic, like pharmaceuticals, shipwrights, aluminum and steel, etc. WAYYY too many variables to have a solid opinion or answer on that question currently.
With regard to energy, commodity prices have moved lower in a big hurry, to the tune of about 10%. This is going to help with all prices generally, and lifts a significant burden on the bottom 50% of earners that experience relatively more pain at the pump for an inelastic good like gasoline.
Oh and it should be noted that the 10-year yield curve is about to touch down to 4% following this tariff rollout. Trump managed this without the Fed's help, so if Jerome will cooperate and cut rates we can push the front end lower to match the recent action on the back end.
That yield curve was recently threatening 5% ... and every 10 basis points (or .1%) is good for about 10 billion to the deficit financing repayment. We could save nearly half a trillion if we can sustain the downward pressure on the 10-year, not to mention it will make Scott's job of selling T-bills that much easier, and give us a small boost in the housing market.
Hope some of this added information proves useful and helps underline your points. We do indeed hold the power; and Trump is NOT AFRAID to wield that power to maximum effect. Exciting times ahead.
Excellent add. There are a lot of ripple effects. Generally all good. But that is why there is much more of an economic plan in place. To answer a question: the vast majority of factories will be new. The old ones have been idle too long and they don’t meet the requirements of most modern factories. This would normally take years and Trump knows that. He has a plan for a hyper speed approval process and is working with the companies to get the operations up and running in an amazingly short time.
Another key item: the money supply needs to be out in front of growth by a little bit. Lagging would slow things down. The Fed will be buying up government debt, which will improve several things, including the banking sector issues with holding a bunch of government debt that has declined in value. Ripple, everywhere a ripple. Generally they will be all good. But the Trump team must be vigilant for certain item squeezes, whether physical items, people, monetary or intellectual property.
True , but doesn't mean he got everything wrong. And if he hadn't ,others would have because he didn't cause Dunkirk , he was their chosen hope for survival.
He was only head of the Navy. And like Yamamoto in Japan may not have been as enthusiastic as others in their respective governments.
“{Socialism is} government of the duds, by the duds, and for the duds.” --Churchill
It’s so simple that one can only conclude, those who don’t understand aren’t incapable of doing so, they just don’t want to. Trump derangement syndrome is real, if Trump said “you need 6 glasses of water a day” I bet some lefties would die of thirst.
Oh, and some of that wealth should also go to my XRP bag.
🤣
But what about the mOrAl HaZaRd it could lead to....
We can just, y'know, GIVE the American people Money For Nothing (and ya chics for free) 😉🎸
Years ago I remember some brilliant gent in Congress saying that most Americans who received social safety net payments & welfare would just spend their $money$ on whiskey and women if they were given more. Yeah, that's what the poorest of the poor do - unlike the RIGHTEOUS AND UPSTANDING members of the Congress. LOL!
But hey, why stop at the SCOUNDRELS in Congress and their well documented relations with drink, drugs and licentious sexual activities? Can't we give some money to those CEOs and big dogs in the financial sector who nearly blew up the global economy with their easy credit policies?
They were just doing their PATRIOTIC DUTY of creating more home owners in our great country! Can't we give them a pass, invent a slogan.... "no pain no gain".... damnit, no, it should be like the opposite of that...
Too Big To Fail! Eureka!
So that's why we have to give them free moneyliquidity and make sure we fund the CEO and executive bonus packages without any interruptions... they worked hard as hell you wouldn't understand....
What? Money for the shareholders? For the homeowners getting evicted? For the little fish on Wall St who got annihilated overnight?
Well listen, payments like that, essentially just GIVING money to all the everyday Americans, when they did nothing to earn it other than be unfortunate victims of business cycles in capitalism.... that can lead to what some call a MORAL HAZARD... 🤣🤣🤣😪
Honestly I am 100% okay if the stock market crashes because quite frankly all these companies are too goddamn big and powerful and they need to break up anyway.
Tariffs and competition are linked at the hip. And there are many combinations. Also you have to look at who has the power. The buyer or the seller. In almost all cases, the US (the buyer), has the power. Walmart is making China eat the tariffs.
The Trump tariffs are far more complex than all these detractors can understand.
And they are just one moving piece of the economic puzzle. Any tiny increase in consumer costs will be more than offset by the other economic measures. What is the biggest cause of inflation? Money for nothing. DOGE is chewing that up quickly. Demand will go down with the deportations. Energy prices that are in everything are already starting to go down. And the private sector expansion going on will more than offset the government job losses.
Next, examine your monthly bills. How many will be affected by tariffs? Almost zero. And big ticket items are usually bought using payments. They would only change by a few dollars and those dollars will likely be offset by lower interest rates.
So worry not my frens.
Most excellent point my fren.
Something almost no one understands anymore. We've been lied to all my life about the benefits for deficit spending. And I remember when Dems used to argue in favor of a balanced budget, which was code for, we're going to steal the SS surplus and increase taxes but no promise that will keep up with our spending.
"Money for nothing." "And the Chicks for free"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wTP2RUD_cL0&list=RDwTP2RUD_cL0&start_radio=1
Easier to survive with out all the "little faggot" parasites.
Lol, aww damn, I made the🎶🐤comment before scrolling down🐸
Exactly. Deficit spending policy that the democrats use creates a boom, bust, stagnation economy. During the last 4 years they tried it on steroids and shoved a lot of money into their own pockets. Leaving the bust scenario for Trump. But Trump already had a plan. Before the election, I had already played out the plan to see how it would pan out. That is why I said that historians would call this the Golden Age of Trump. Trump is more modestly calling it the Golden Age of America.
As Trump might say, "I'm not getting credit for how modest I am. That's OK, I never do." ;p
“What is the biggest cause of inflation? Money for nothing.”
Mark Knopfler figured this out in 1985 😉
Great minds. I figured it out in the’70s when suffering under Carter.
🎶& your🐥🐤🐣for free🎶🐸
Fantastic job with your comment good sir.
You're completely correct on all fronts, and I would just like to supplement your thoughts with some information I've picked up in my own research. I've been thinking about creating a post that would attempt to give readers 360° coverage on this tariff issue - but its no easy task because of the sheer amount of other issues this will touch and effect. The real scope of what Trump has done with these tariffs is only now starting to come into view, I think.
The implications are massive, its easily the biggest single thing he's set his sights on, the border being the only other thing that's even comparable. This has the potential to be the final nail in globalism's coffin - and maybe even trigger a reset of the entire world order... but we'll save all that for another time.
According to Scott Bessent in the interview with Tucker yesterday, Treasury recently received some economic research from MIT concerning Trump's tariffs from his first term, which was a 20% tariff(on China, hopefully no one needed to know that). Without getting too complicated we can just allow that the cost of a tariff is split between several parties.
According to Bessent, the research found the price increase from that tariff was around +0.7%. READ THAT AGAIN. From a 20% tariff on China, the actual price increase to the consumer was 0.7% ...
This doesn't mean the new round of tariffs will have that same ratio when it comes to price hikes, but it certainly DOES help provide clarity and calm some nerves.
Government spending is THE ONLY thing that can cause inflation. Those words belong to Milton Friedman, who I very much admired as an Economics student. As all the hysterics and prattling have begun and now become nearly deafening, I have continued to consider this statement. Are tariffs a form of government spending? Doesn't seem obvious to me that they are, but Jerome Powell certainly knows more than I do... (right? RIGHT!?!?)
Positing that, I will say that a scenario of stagflation is possible (having been documented before in relation to tariffs).
Of course the private sector moves WAY faster than our lugubrious government (and the snails and slugs who populate it). To that end, I do not have much belief or respect for the myriad time frames that have been carelessly thrown around by people who appear to have no expertise or credentials on this topic.
How do you know that it will take 4 years and maybe a couple more to bring back "manufacturing" writ large from offshore? What about plants that moved to Canada or Mexico, will it take them equally as long? Are we taking over an abandoned factory or building from scratch, and what industry will be coming back, and what is the capacity required?
Consider the rollout for COVID and then ask yourself if Trump would take similar measures ESPECIALLY for those designated as strategic, like pharmaceuticals, shipwrights, aluminum and steel, etc. WAYYY too many variables to have a solid opinion or answer on that question currently.
With regard to energy, commodity prices have moved lower in a big hurry, to the tune of about 10%. This is going to help with all prices generally, and lifts a significant burden on the bottom 50% of earners that experience relatively more pain at the pump for an inelastic good like gasoline.
Oh and it should be noted that the 10-year yield curve is about to touch down to 4% following this tariff rollout. Trump managed this without the Fed's help, so if Jerome will cooperate and cut rates we can push the front end lower to match the recent action on the back end.
That yield curve was recently threatening 5% ... and every 10 basis points (or .1%) is good for about 10 billion to the deficit financing repayment. We could save nearly half a trillion if we can sustain the downward pressure on the 10-year, not to mention it will make Scott's job of selling T-bills that much easier, and give us a small boost in the housing market.
Hope some of this added information proves useful and helps underline your points. We do indeed hold the power; and Trump is NOT AFRAID to wield that power to maximum effect. Exciting times ahead.
Excellent add. There are a lot of ripple effects. Generally all good. But that is why there is much more of an economic plan in place. To answer a question: the vast majority of factories will be new. The old ones have been idle too long and they don’t meet the requirements of most modern factories. This would normally take years and Trump knows that. He has a plan for a hyper speed approval process and is working with the companies to get the operations up and running in an amazingly short time.
Another key item: the money supply needs to be out in front of growth by a little bit. Lagging would slow things down. The Fed will be buying up government debt, which will improve several things, including the banking sector issues with holding a bunch of government debt that has declined in value. Ripple, everywhere a ripple. Generally they will be all good. But the Trump team must be vigilant for certain item squeezes, whether physical items, people, monetary or intellectual property.
“There is a precipice on either side of you—a precipice of caution and a precipice of over-daring.” - Churchill
CARRY ON
Churchill sent millions of White men to die, filling their heads with bullshit that wasn't happening.
True , but doesn't mean he got everything wrong. And if he hadn't ,others would have because he didn't cause Dunkirk , he was their chosen hope for survival. He was only head of the Navy. And like Yamamoto in Japan may not have been as enthusiastic as others in their respective governments.
“{Socialism is} government of the duds, by the duds, and for the duds.” --Churchill
It’s so simple that one can only conclude, those who don’t understand aren’t incapable of doing so, they just don’t want to. Trump derangement syndrome is real, if Trump said “you need 6 glasses of water a day” I bet some lefties would die of thirst.
Nothing of value would be lost.
🤣
But what about the mOrAl HaZaRd it could lead to....
We can just, y'know, GIVE the American people Money For Nothing (and ya chics for free) 😉🎸
Years ago I remember some brilliant gent in Congress saying that most Americans who received social safety net payments & welfare would just spend their $money$ on whiskey and women if they were given more. Yeah, that's what the poorest of the poor do - unlike the RIGHTEOUS AND UPSTANDING members of the Congress. LOL!
But hey, why stop at the SCOUNDRELS in Congress and their well documented relations with drink, drugs and licentious sexual activities? Can't we give some money to those CEOs and big dogs in the financial sector who nearly blew up the global economy with their easy credit policies?
They were just doing their PATRIOTIC DUTY of creating more home owners in our great country! Can't we give them a pass, invent a slogan.... "no pain no gain".... damnit, no, it should be like the opposite of that...
Too Big To Fail! Eureka!
So that's why we have to give them
free moneyliquidity and make sure we fund the CEO and executive bonus packages without any interruptions... they worked hard as hell you wouldn't understand....What? Money for the shareholders? For the homeowners getting evicted? For the little fish on Wall St who got annihilated overnight?
Well listen, payments like that, essentially just GIVING money to all the everyday Americans, when they did nothing to earn it other than be unfortunate victims of business cycles in capitalism.... that can lead to what some call a MORAL HAZARD... 🤣🤣🤣😪
cue up (Payback! by James Brown)
😎😂
Honestly I am 100% okay if the stock market crashes because quite frankly all these companies are too goddamn big and powerful and they need to break up anyway.