BRICS is kind of dead in the water. The LME just dumped the Yuan - they will only trade in US dollars. Xi's vision of making the Yuan a competitor to the dollar pretty much has been evaporated. Nobody wants their currency unless they are forced to transact using Yuan. Even the Chinese are dumping Yuan if they can. The Chinese government had to set limits on exchange because of it. No one trusts their currency because is not market based and is easily manipulated.
China's economy is tanking - regardless of what the beautified official numbers say. Direct foreign investment is bailing and they are not quite sure how to stop the hemorrhage. What they are calling FDI is really just Chinese money rerouted through Hong Kong and then put back into China. Even Tesla is scaling back with regards to the Chinese market. International companies are heading for the exits. China is simply no longer worth the risks.
If you take a good look at the nations in BRICS, none of the main players trust each other. It sounded like a good idea at the time, but these countries, especially India, Russia, and China, all have ongoing border disputes that are not going to be rectified any time soon. China would throw any of them under the bus in a heartbeat - and they all know it. The CCP has never been an honest broker with anyone. Russia is dealing with them for the moment because they have to, in order to keep their own boat afloat - but it has cost them dearly. India? If you watch closely, India is playing things close to the vest, not wanting to upset either the West or the East. Don't forget, the US has the market everyone wants. That is a fact.
China may have seemed like a contender to the US led system over 10 years ago, but Xi has all but single handedly blown that up with one really bad policy after another. The Chinese market has lost its demographic dividend and the middle class will soon be none existent - they are returning to poverty. The Chinese dream is dying. Consumers have no money, jobs are scarce, they are drowning in debt and are in a deflationary spiral. Real estate, the main driver of their economy, has imploded. Now their last pillar, exports, are getting hit and they have competition - India and other countries is So East Asia.
BRICS has lost most of the steam it seemed to have when they first started. You could tell by the last summit they had. None of the big players even showed up and the smaller countries are loosing interest. China just is not as impressive as they once were, plus, too many countries have been burned doing business with them. Some of the BRI nations are booting the Chinese out of their countries. Africa is a good example. Several countries in Africa are rioting against the Chinese - looting their business and forcing them out. Many countries are beginning to see the CCP for who they really are.
It has NOTHING to do with the currency, but everything to do with TRADE! This is where Trump got it very wrong because he listens to the neocons. The BRICS nations - and many are joining by the day - realise that trading with the US and Europe is not worth it. And there is nothing they need anyway as they have adapted thru the sanctions which has strengthened manufacturing greatly in Russia. BRICS was set up to bypass this strangling system that doesn’t benefit them, but penalises them and they are not going down that rabbit hole again. Once again, people are gorging down on media lies and their propaganda instead of researching the truth. And just who is dumping US Bonds atm?? It will take America years to recover but hey, there’s another war to start and fight in Venezuela and I think Trump mentioned he wants to have a pot shot at Columbia as well. And the mid terms are rapidly approaching and the neocons and Democrats are chomping at the bit to put their boy Rubio in. Wasn’t it he that put forward the 19 point peace plan - a rabid Ukraine lover and he absolutely despises Trump and has told him so. The old adage - Keep your friends close but your enemies closer - comes to mind. Tell me. Why is JD very, very quiet atm?
Our conclusions obviously differ, especially on the economic and financial front. But I do agree with your assessment of the neocons. They have always been a bunch of war mongering knuckle draggers. They never met a war they didn't like. I am sure it is not easy for Trump to navigate around them considering there are just so many of them - most with their own fingers in the MIC.
China's economy is tanking. It started to show cracks in the mid 2010s. Zero Covid lockdowns drove it over the cliff. They have not recovered. The tariffs are the nail in the coffin. As I already stated, real estate drove about 25 to 30 percent of China's GDP. That market still has not hit bottom yet. China has spent years with a real estate debt economy that has now dried up. Most of the middle class Chinese had their wealth tied up in real estate. And a lot of that property was leveraged. Now they are holding the bag. Most of the property is valued far less than what the mortgages are. There are no jobs and there have been massive pay cuts for those still employed - even for Golden Rice Bowl government workers. Some people go months with no paychecks. There are no personal bankruptcy fixes in China.
Development companies are not fairing any better. Some of the larger companies are either bankrupt or are close to it. Money printed by the government is not flowing into the economy. It just circulates through the banks - used to pay old provincial debt with new loans.
The Yuan really has no value. If the central government did not fix the rate artificially, the Yuan would tank. That is why internationally, countries and other entities are pulling back from dealing in the Yuan. The latest was the LME - London Metals Exchange. As far as developing an alternative to SWIFT, BRICS Pay, it still has not advanced past the prototype stage. Challenges remain due to technical interoperability, divergent national interests, and the lack of a unified BRICS currency. The Yuan getting hit hard makes it seem less likely they will get it off the ground. The Yuan was supposed to be the backbone of BRICS to challenge the dollar based system. As I said, it appears as though that part of BRICS has pretty much evaporated as of late and I don't see that situation improving any time in the near future.
The last meeting of BRICS in Brazil was subdued as compared to years previous. Not a great deal of coverage - especially in the Chinese press. That speaks volumes if you know anything about CCP black box politics. Putin attended by video link and Xi was absent. He sent his lap dog Premier Li Qiang instead. Modi was the only one of the big three that was present. He timed it with a state visit to Brazil otherwise he may have not been there either. India is supposed to be the host country next year. Indonesia joined, but that was expected. They have been pretty roped in due to BRI - but there is some anti China backlash coming from the people and there have been riots. Indonesia tried to institute CCP style internet censorship and the people revolted.
As far as dumping US bonds. I have heard mixed reports on that. China using the nuclear option at this time seems to be unlikely because of their own dire economic situation. They are trying to hold as much foreign currency as they can. It had been speculated that China might try to offload treasuries because of some overnight yield spikes in April, but so far there is no evidence that confirms large-scale dumping.
Thank you for your opinions. All discussions should be on the table.
Definitely. I’ve just posted a link to the interview with The Duran and Robert Barnes. He is brilliant in fitting the pieces of the puzzle together. He goes hard on the neocons. Thanks for your reply.
I like Barnes. He is a really smart guy and he does a good job staying on top of the legal rumor mill in DC. I studied law back in the day and Barnes has a great legal mind.
The Duran? I used to listen to them quite a bit. But I stopped. Alex has some uncomfortable Russian ties. Not sure if he is being funded directly, but it didn't look good. I took everything regarding Russia with a grain of salt, like I do with anything. Most of what they would say about China I knew for the most part was basically a load of crap. I have been watching the CCP for too long and recognize CCP dribble when I see it. Thankfully China never was much more than a footnote in most of their discussions. Their main focus was Russian and Ukraine. I liked that Alexander always had daily frontline updates. It was very difficult to get information at that time.
One day they had some CCP United Work Front spokesperson on as a guest speaker. I didn't always like some of their other speakers, but, it is okay to have a difference of opinion. I am fine with that. But this CCP guest, I was shocked. Total CCP propaganda. I knew Alex wasn't comfortable with what she was saying and he pretty much didn't engage. He seemed like he was just waiting for it to be over. I think he knew it was over the top but couldn't really say anything. Alexander on the other hand, he was helping her spin her propaganda.
So, if what they said about China was complete BS, how much could I trust what they were stating about Russia? That is when I looked into their backgrounds a little deeper. Alexander got into some trouble with the justice system and lost his right to practice. He went through a really rough time in his life - not completely his fault. But thankfully he pulled himself out of it with the help of his wife. Good for him! He put his life back together and I can respect that. We all can make mistakes and I think he has redeemed himself. Alex? The more I looking into him, I didn't like what I found. So, there was a bit of a trust issue there for me, so I just didn't follow them anymore. To each his own I guess.
I saw your post. I will probably watch it. As I said, I like Barnes. Thanks. Have a great day!
BRICS is kind of dead in the water. The LME just dumped the Yuan - they will only trade in US dollars. Xi's vision of making the Yuan a competitor to the dollar pretty much has been evaporated. Nobody wants their currency unless they are forced to transact using Yuan. Even the Chinese are dumping Yuan if they can. The Chinese government had to set limits on exchange because of it. No one trusts their currency because is not market based and is easily manipulated.
China's economy is tanking - regardless of what the beautified official numbers say. Direct foreign investment is bailing and they are not quite sure how to stop the hemorrhage. What they are calling FDI is really just Chinese money rerouted through Hong Kong and then put back into China. Even Tesla is scaling back with regards to the Chinese market. International companies are heading for the exits. China is simply no longer worth the risks.
If you take a good look at the nations in BRICS, none of the main players trust each other. It sounded like a good idea at the time, but these countries, especially India, Russia, and China, all have ongoing border disputes that are not going to be rectified any time soon. China would throw any of them under the bus in a heartbeat - and they all know it. The CCP has never been an honest broker with anyone. Russia is dealing with them for the moment because they have to, in order to keep their own boat afloat - but it has cost them dearly. India? If you watch closely, India is playing things close to the vest, not wanting to upset either the West or the East. Don't forget, the US has the market everyone wants. That is a fact.
China may have seemed like a contender to the US led system over 10 years ago, but Xi has all but single handedly blown that up with one really bad policy after another. The Chinese market has lost its demographic dividend and the middle class will soon be none existent - they are returning to poverty. The Chinese dream is dying. Consumers have no money, jobs are scarce, they are drowning in debt and are in a deflationary spiral. Real estate, the main driver of their economy, has imploded. Now their last pillar, exports, are getting hit and they have competition - India and other countries is So East Asia.
BRICS has lost most of the steam it seemed to have when they first started. You could tell by the last summit they had. None of the big players even showed up and the smaller countries are loosing interest. China just is not as impressive as they once were, plus, too many countries have been burned doing business with them. Some of the BRI nations are booting the Chinese out of their countries. Africa is a good example. Several countries in Africa are rioting against the Chinese - looting their business and forcing them out. Many countries are beginning to see the CCP for who they really are.
It has NOTHING to do with the currency, but everything to do with TRADE! This is where Trump got it very wrong because he listens to the neocons. The BRICS nations - and many are joining by the day - realise that trading with the US and Europe is not worth it. And there is nothing they need anyway as they have adapted thru the sanctions which has strengthened manufacturing greatly in Russia. BRICS was set up to bypass this strangling system that doesn’t benefit them, but penalises them and they are not going down that rabbit hole again. Once again, people are gorging down on media lies and their propaganda instead of researching the truth. And just who is dumping US Bonds atm?? It will take America years to recover but hey, there’s another war to start and fight in Venezuela and I think Trump mentioned he wants to have a pot shot at Columbia as well. And the mid terms are rapidly approaching and the neocons and Democrats are chomping at the bit to put their boy Rubio in. Wasn’t it he that put forward the 19 point peace plan - a rabid Ukraine lover and he absolutely despises Trump and has told him so. The old adage - Keep your friends close but your enemies closer - comes to mind. Tell me. Why is JD very, very quiet atm?
Our conclusions obviously differ, especially on the economic and financial front. But I do agree with your assessment of the neocons. They have always been a bunch of war mongering knuckle draggers. They never met a war they didn't like. I am sure it is not easy for Trump to navigate around them considering there are just so many of them - most with their own fingers in the MIC.
China's economy is tanking. It started to show cracks in the mid 2010s. Zero Covid lockdowns drove it over the cliff. They have not recovered. The tariffs are the nail in the coffin. As I already stated, real estate drove about 25 to 30 percent of China's GDP. That market still has not hit bottom yet. China has spent years with a real estate debt economy that has now dried up. Most of the middle class Chinese had their wealth tied up in real estate. And a lot of that property was leveraged. Now they are holding the bag. Most of the property is valued far less than what the mortgages are. There are no jobs and there have been massive pay cuts for those still employed - even for Golden Rice Bowl government workers. Some people go months with no paychecks. There are no personal bankruptcy fixes in China.
Development companies are not fairing any better. Some of the larger companies are either bankrupt or are close to it. Money printed by the government is not flowing into the economy. It just circulates through the banks - used to pay old provincial debt with new loans.
The Yuan really has no value. If the central government did not fix the rate artificially, the Yuan would tank. That is why internationally, countries and other entities are pulling back from dealing in the Yuan. The latest was the LME - London Metals Exchange. As far as developing an alternative to SWIFT, BRICS Pay, it still has not advanced past the prototype stage. Challenges remain due to technical interoperability, divergent national interests, and the lack of a unified BRICS currency. The Yuan getting hit hard makes it seem less likely they will get it off the ground. The Yuan was supposed to be the backbone of BRICS to challenge the dollar based system. As I said, it appears as though that part of BRICS has pretty much evaporated as of late and I don't see that situation improving any time in the near future.
The last meeting of BRICS in Brazil was subdued as compared to years previous. Not a great deal of coverage - especially in the Chinese press. That speaks volumes if you know anything about CCP black box politics. Putin attended by video link and Xi was absent. He sent his lap dog Premier Li Qiang instead. Modi was the only one of the big three that was present. He timed it with a state visit to Brazil otherwise he may have not been there either. India is supposed to be the host country next year. Indonesia joined, but that was expected. They have been pretty roped in due to BRI - but there is some anti China backlash coming from the people and there have been riots. Indonesia tried to institute CCP style internet censorship and the people revolted.
As far as dumping US bonds. I have heard mixed reports on that. China using the nuclear option at this time seems to be unlikely because of their own dire economic situation. They are trying to hold as much foreign currency as they can. It had been speculated that China might try to offload treasuries because of some overnight yield spikes in April, but so far there is no evidence that confirms large-scale dumping.
Thank you for your opinions. All discussions should be on the table.
Definitely. I’ve just posted a link to the interview with The Duran and Robert Barnes. He is brilliant in fitting the pieces of the puzzle together. He goes hard on the neocons. Thanks for your reply.
I like Barnes. He is a really smart guy and he does a good job staying on top of the legal rumor mill in DC. I studied law back in the day and Barnes has a great legal mind.
The Duran? I used to listen to them quite a bit. But I stopped. Alex has some uncomfortable Russian ties. Not sure if he is being funded directly, but it didn't look good. I took everything regarding Russia with a grain of salt, like I do with anything. Most of what they would say about China I knew for the most part was basically a load of crap. I have been watching the CCP for too long and recognize CCP dribble when I see it. Thankfully China never was much more than a footnote in most of their discussions. Their main focus was Russian and Ukraine. I liked that Alexander always had daily frontline updates. It was very difficult to get information at that time.
One day they had some CCP United Work Front spokesperson on as a guest speaker. I didn't always like some of their other speakers, but, it is okay to have a difference of opinion. I am fine with that. But this CCP guest, I was shocked. Total CCP propaganda. I knew Alex wasn't comfortable with what she was saying and he pretty much didn't engage. He seemed like he was just waiting for it to be over. I think he knew it was over the top but couldn't really say anything. Alexander on the other hand, he was helping her spin her propaganda.
So, if what they said about China was complete BS, how much could I trust what they were stating about Russia? That is when I looked into their backgrounds a little deeper. Alexander got into some trouble with the justice system and lost his right to practice. He went through a really rough time in his life - not completely his fault. But thankfully he pulled himself out of it with the help of his wife. Good for him! He put his life back together and I can respect that. We all can make mistakes and I think he has redeemed himself. Alex? The more I looking into him, I didn't like what I found. So, there was a bit of a trust issue there for me, so I just didn't follow them anymore. To each his own I guess.
I saw your post. I will probably watch it. As I said, I like Barnes. Thanks. Have a great day!