We are looking for a spike over $85 to wipeout Bank of America with margin calls. Citibank might be on the line as well at a higher price point. Things will re-adjust after that before moving higher, imo.
90% silver JFK halves down to about 2% over premium (apmex.com), indicating refineries have HALTED nearly all melting of junk silver. Likely because the lease rates are too high. Refineries in the past have not actually purchased the silver, but only lease it until refining is complete from what I understand.
A silver refiner expert may opine on whether this is changing.
Silver backwardation is a condition in the futures market where near-term silver prices are higher than prices for delivery further in the future.
That’s the simple definition. The implications are where it gets interesting.
🔁 Normal Market vs Backwardation
Normal (Contango)
Most of the time, silver futures trade in contango:
Spot price < 3-month futures < 6-month futures
Reflects:
◘ Storage costs
◘ Insurance
◘ Financing (interest rates)
Convenience of delayed delivery
This is what you expect for storable commodities like silver.
Backwardation
In backwardation:
Spot price > futures price
Or: near-month futures > far-month futures
Example:
Spot silver: $26.00
3-month future: $25.70
6-month future: $25.40
This means people are willing to pay a premium to get silver now.
⚠️ Why Backwardation Matters in Silver
Silver is:
Durable
Easily stored
Not perishable
So backwardation is abnormal and meaningful.
It usually signals physical market stress.
🔍 What Causes Silver Backwardation?
1️⃣ Physical Silver Shortage (or fear of one)
Refiners, mints, or manufacturers need metal immediately
Paper futures aren’t trusted for timely delivery
Holders refuse to lend silver forward
This is the classic bullish interpretation.
2️⃣ Rising Interest Rates (Less Common for Silver)
Higher rates increase the “carry cost,” but this usually deepens contango, not backwardation.
When backwardation appears despite high rates, it’s notable.
3️⃣ Disrupted Leasing Market
Silver leasing is usually active.
Backwardation can mean:
Less silver available to lease
Large holders unwilling to part with metal
4️⃣ Paper Market Stress (COMEX)
Futures markets price paper promises
Backwardation can reflect loss of confidence in future delivery
Cash premiums emerge vs futures
🧮 Backwardation vs Lease Rates
Backwardation is closely tied to silver lease rates.
Backwardation ≈ negative lease rates
Indicates holders value possession over yield
This is unusual for a monetary metal.
🧠 What It Signals (Interpretations)
Bullish Interpretation
Physical silver is scarce
Spot price is being suppressed by paper selling
Future delivery risk is increasing
Potential for a sharp upward price adjustment
This view is common among:
Physical bullion investors
Precious metals analysts
Hard-asset advocates
Skeptical / Neutral Interpretation
Could be short-term dislocations
Often appears briefly around delivery months
Can be driven by:
Temporary logistics issues
Tax or funding constraints
Arbitrage limits
Backwardation in silver has historically been episodic, not permanent.
📈 Historical Context
Silver has entered brief backwardation multiple times (e.g., 2008, 2011, 2020, 2022–2023)
Gold backwardation is rarer and considered more severe
Silver backwardation usually:
Appears first in near months
Disappears once supply flows normalize
🧾 Practical Example
If you’re a refiner:
You need silver today
You don’t trust futures delivery
You pay up in the spot market
If you’re a holder:
You refuse to sell or lease silver forward
You demand a premium to part with it
That’s backwardation.
⚖️ Key Takeaway
Silver backwardation = the market values immediate possession more than future delivery.
For a non-perishable metal, that’s a stress signal — not guaranteed crisis, but definitely something to watch.
If you want it shortened for a comment-length Reddit post or rewritten to sound more casual / less educational, I can do that too.
Just for shits and giggles, how high do you think it will go? I'm just wondering if I should try to recover the coins that fell out of my boat into a very deep lake.
~$145.19 is inflation-adjusted high from 1980-81. We will likely see this by end of 2026. $83 moves silver into #2 largest asset worldwide right behind gold. We likely see that by post FEB contract delivery in March 2026.
The sky is the limit when they fail to deliver…
We are looking for a spike over $85 to wipeout Bank of America with margin calls. Citibank might be on the line as well at a higher price point. Things will re-adjust after that before moving higher, imo.
Wipe out BOA?
They are very short on silver.
If you have an account with them,I would move most of your money out.
If boa fails the <ripple> effect will be huge.
I can’t wait.
Currently we are .16 from backwardation.
If it continues refinery can't hedge,so they quit buying silver,so they don't make any 1,000 crimex's bars.....
We are down to 7 cents at the end of trading (5PM ET). See if spot takes off when trading resumes. $64.13 contract vs $64.06 spot (cnbc).
.04 right now.
90% silver JFK halves down to about 2% over premium (apmex.com), indicating refineries have HALTED nearly all melting of junk silver. Likely because the lease rates are too high. Refineries in the past have not actually purchased the silver, but only lease it until refining is complete from what I understand.
A silver refiner expert may opine on whether this is changing.
JUNK is only 90% they haven't been refining that for months,from what I heard.
If we go into backwardation,they will quit refining. 999 silver even,as it's to expensive to hedge or borrow.
Silver is just getting started. Expect 10x current price in 10 years.
Silver backwardation is a condition in the futures market where near-term silver prices are higher than prices for delivery further in the future.
That’s the simple definition. The implications are where it gets interesting.
🔁 Normal Market vs Backwardation
Normal (Contango)
Most of the time, silver futures trade in contango:
Spot price < 3-month futures < 6-month futures
Reflects:
◘ Storage costs
◘ Insurance
◘ Financing (interest rates)
Convenience of delayed delivery
This is what you expect for storable commodities like silver.
Backwardation
In backwardation:
Spot price > futures price
Or: near-month futures > far-month futures
Example:
Spot silver: $26.00
3-month future: $25.70
6-month future: $25.40
This means people are willing to pay a premium to get silver now.
⚠️ Why Backwardation Matters in Silver
Silver is:
Durable
Easily stored
Not perishable
So backwardation is abnormal and meaningful.
It usually signals physical market stress.
🔍 What Causes Silver Backwardation? 1️⃣ Physical Silver Shortage (or fear of one)
Refiners, mints, or manufacturers need metal immediately
Paper futures aren’t trusted for timely delivery
Holders refuse to lend silver forward
This is the classic bullish interpretation.
2️⃣ Rising Interest Rates (Less Common for Silver)
Higher rates increase the “carry cost,” but this usually deepens contango, not backwardation. When backwardation appears despite high rates, it’s notable.
3️⃣ Disrupted Leasing Market
Silver leasing is usually active. Backwardation can mean:
Less silver available to lease
Large holders unwilling to part with metal
4️⃣ Paper Market Stress (COMEX)
Futures markets price paper promises
Backwardation can reflect loss of confidence in future delivery
Cash premiums emerge vs futures
🧮 Backwardation vs Lease Rates
Backwardation is closely tied to silver lease rates.
Backwardation ≈ negative lease rates
Indicates holders value possession over yield
This is unusual for a monetary metal.
🧠 What It Signals (Interpretations) Bullish Interpretation
Physical silver is scarce
Spot price is being suppressed by paper selling
Future delivery risk is increasing
Potential for a sharp upward price adjustment
This view is common among:
Physical bullion investors
Precious metals analysts
Hard-asset advocates
Skeptical / Neutral Interpretation
Could be short-term dislocations
Often appears briefly around delivery months
Can be driven by:
Temporary logistics issues
Tax or funding constraints
Arbitrage limits
Backwardation in silver has historically been episodic, not permanent.
📈 Historical Context
Silver has entered brief backwardation multiple times (e.g., 2008, 2011, 2020, 2022–2023)
Gold backwardation is rarer and considered more severe
Silver backwardation usually:
Appears first in near months
Disappears once supply flows normalize
🧾 Practical Example
If you’re a refiner:
You need silver today
You don’t trust futures delivery
You pay up in the spot market
If you’re a holder:
You refuse to sell or lease silver forward
You demand a premium to part with it
That’s backwardation.
⚖️ Key Takeaway
Silver backwardation = the market values immediate possession more than future delivery.
For a non-perishable metal, that’s a stress signal — not guaranteed crisis, but definitely something to watch.
If you want it shortened for a comment-length Reddit post or rewritten to sound more casual / less educational, I can do that too.
They're trying to push it down by Dec 31 to reduce the 2025 full year gain.Watch it really pop Q1 26 imo.
Correction: Premium collapsed to +9 cents contract OVER spot. This has fluctuated between +30-70 cents for the last several weeks.
Data captured today contract vs spot; Useful capture due to 10 min delay on contract price:
SILVER SPOT PRICE
3:49 PM ET $63.95
SILVER CONTRACT (DEC) PRICE
3:49 PM ET $64.04; +9 cents, very low compared to recent activity
3:48 PM ET $63.97
3:47 PM ET $63.94
3:44 PM ET $63.90
3:41 PM ET $63.87
3:39 PM ET $63.83
Just for shits and giggles, how high do you think it will go? I'm just wondering if I should try to recover the coins that fell out of my boat into a very deep lake.
historical average is 1/8 to 1/10 of gold $400 to $525
...but 1/1 of gold when the Statue of Liberty gets buried in sand up to her tits. /s
https://m.media-amazon.com/images/M/MV5BY2ZhZGFjMmItZWIzZC00YzMzLWE2OTYtOGZiZDQwYTMzYWZjXkEyXkFqcGc@.V1.jpg
This is what I have been thinking... Long term, which is probably 3-5 years in my opinion.
Make sure your diving gear is in good order,at this time.
Not financial advice.
Kek
LOL
I will probably drown if i actually attempt it.
~$145.19 is inflation-adjusted high from 1980-81. We will likely see this by end of 2026. $83 moves silver into #2 largest asset worldwide right behind gold. We likely see that by post FEB contract delivery in March 2026.
I tend to agree. I think TPTB will try to hold it down for a few years, so its increases will be small and steady.
Can someone explain to me the significance of the topic of Silver on GAW?
The central bank system is the same people behind all the other evil in the world. Jekyll island 1913.
Cut off the head of the snake
It's the banks with their boots on our neck.
Silver will wreck them.
Cartel Renews the Attack: #Silver Smashed Back to $62.28 https://x.com/silvertrade/status/2000779798801482152?s=20