I've never bought the leftist lie that Americans won't do the jobs illegals and other immigrants do because the wages are too low, so I got a little AI assistance to verify the lie, using cantaloupes as an example. What really hit me is how much the immigrant laborers (and U.S. citizens) are being paid to pick! (but perhaps there are much lower "under the table" wages being paid) Here are the results of this analysis:

If we use cantaloupes as the example, how many cantaloupes can be picked per hour by a field worker?

A realistic estimate for how many cantaloupes a field worker can pick per hour comes from commercial U.S. harvest data (primarily California, the main producing state), where crews use conveyor-belt systems to aid efficiency.In typical large-scale operations:A harvest crew of about 21 people (including ~9 dedicated pickers, plus packers, box makers, loaders, etc.) collectively picks and packs 200–300 cartons per hour (often averaging around 250 cartons/hour). Standard cantaloupe cartons hold 9 to 23 melons each, depending on fruit size (commonly around 12–15 on average for mid-size fruit in many 38-pound cartons).

This translates to roughly 2,000–6,000+ individual cantaloupes per hour for the whole crew, but focusing on the pickers:With 9 pickers contributing the bulk of the picking effort in such a crew setup, individual picker productivity often falls in the range of 100–250 cantaloupes per hour per worker (accounting for walking, selecting ripe fruit at "full slip," gently detaching/placing on the belt, and field conditions). More conservative or detailed reports from melon harvest analyses suggest experienced workers average around 150–200 cantaloupes per hour in efficient conveyor-assisted systems.

Factors that influence this rate include:Field density and yield — Higher melon counts per row/acre allow faster picking. Method — Modern "harvest-aid" machines (conveyors moving slowly through rows) boost productivity significantly compared to fully manual bucket-carrying. Worker experience — Piece-rate pay (common in some setups) incentivizes higher output. Conditions — Heat, vine coverage, fruit size/spacing, and pass frequency (fields picked 3–5 times over 1–2 weeks rather than daily).

Without conveyor aids or in smaller/manual operations, rates can drop to 50–100 per hour or lower.For context, this is demanding physical work in hot conditions, and crews aim to maintain quality (only picking ripe fruit) while avoiding damage.If you're asking for a specific scenario (e.g., small farm vs. commercial, manual vs. mechanized aid), more details would help refine the estimate!

Based on that, and the hourly wage migrant workers are paid, what is the "Picking cost" for a single cantaloupe

To calculate the picking cost (labor cost specifically for harvesting/picking one cantaloupe), we can use data from typical large-scale California operations (the primary U.S. source for commercial cantaloupes), combining realistic worker productivity with current wage rates for migrant/field workers.Key Data PointsProductivity per picker: As discussed earlier, experienced workers in conveyor-assisted crews typically pick 150–200 cantaloupes per hour (midpoint ~175 for a balanced estimate; some reports suggest 100–250 depending on conditions, but 150–200 is common in efficient setups). Hourly wage for migrant/field workers (mostly H-2A or similar in CA melon harvest):Direct hires or base rates: Around $17–$20 per hour in recent years (e.g., ~$19–$20 reported for crop workers in CA). For H-2A (common for seasonal migrant labor): Adverse Effect Wage Rate (AEWR) in California is $19.97 per hour (as of 2025 data). Employer total cost often higher ($20–$25+ including payroll taxes/overhead), but for worker pay-focused "picking cost," we use the wage paid ($20/hour as a rounded 2025–2026 figure for migrant harvest crews).

Calculation for Picking Cost per CantaloupeUsing the midpoint productivity of 175 cantaloupes per hour and $20 per hour wage:Labor cost per hour ÷ melons per hour = cost per melon $20 ÷ 175 ≈ $0.114 (or about 11–12 cents per cantaloupe).

Range based on variability:At lower end (150 melons/hour): $20 ÷ 150 = ~$0.133 (13 cents). At higher end (200 melons/hour): $20 ÷ 200 = $0.10 (10 cents).

So, the picking labor cost is typically 10–13 cents per single cantaloupe in modern, efficient commercial harvests.Important NotesThis is picking labor only (the worker selecting/detaching/placing ripe fruit). Full harvest costs (including packing, loading, grading, supervision, equipment like conveyors, and crew overhead) are higher—often $0.40–$1.50 per carton (with cartons holding 9–23 melons, translating to roughly 5–15 cents per melon or more for the entire harvest step, per older budgets and reports). Many operations use piece-rate pay (e.g., per carton or load), but effective hourly earnings still align with ~$17–$20+ to meet minimums/AEWR. Older budgets (e.g., Georgia/Texas) show harvest/marketing ~$0.41 per fruit in some cases, but that's total (not just picking) and for smaller/less efficient ops. Costs rise with slower manual methods (no conveyor) or poor conditions, potentially doubling the per-melon labor figure.

This keeps U.S. fresh cantaloupes affordable at retail despite labor intensity—harvest labor is a small fraction of the final price. If you have a specific region, year, or wage figure in mind, I can refine this!

Break down full harvest costs

Labor costs for strawberries

There is discussion going on that if only American citizens were to pick fruit like cantaloupes, the price of the fruit would rise significantly. However, your data indicates that field workers could be paid twice what they are paid now, and the additional cost per cantaloupe would be less than 25 cents. Since cantaloupes in stores cost around $3 each, adding an additional 25 cents would seem to be pretty insignificant, and this is based on doubling the field labor wages, which obviously wouldn't be required as an incentive to have Americans do the work.

Your point is well-taken and aligns with economic analyses on this topic. The discussion often exaggerates the impact of shifting to a U.S.-citizen-only workforce (which would likely require higher wages to attract domestic workers for demanding seasonal field jobs), but the math shows the retail price effect would be relatively modest for items like cantaloupes.Retail Price ContextCurrent U.S. retail prices for whole fresh cantaloupes typically range from about $2.50 to $3.50 each (often around $2.97 at major chains like Walmart, with variations by season, size, and location; some reports show averages closer to $3 or slightly higher in off-season periods). Wholesale prices are lower (e.g., around $1–$2 per kg or per carton equivalents), reflecting the farm-to-retail spread where growers capture a smaller share.Labor Cost Impact BreakdownUsing our earlier cantaloupe-specific estimate:Picking labor cost per melon: 10–13 cents at current wages ($20/hour effective for migrant/H-2A crews, with 150–200 melons/hour productivity). If wages doubled to ~$40/hour (a substantial increase to potentially draw more American workers, far beyond typical incentives), the picking cost per melon would roughly double to 20–26 cents.

This adds ~10–13 cents extra per cantaloupe beyond current levels (or up to ~25 cents in a high-end scenario if including some crew overhead). On a $3 retail cantaloupe, that's an increase of 3–8% (or ~8% at the upper end).Even broader USDA and economic studies on labor-intensive fresh fruits/vegetables (including melons) support this scale:Harvest labor (not just picking, but full harvest steps) often represents 20–40% of on-farm production costs for melons/vegetables, but the farm share of the final retail price is typically 10–30% (lower for many fresh produce items due to packing, transport, distribution, and retail margins). A significant wage hike (e.g., 40% across farm labor) might translate to only a few percent increase in retail prices for fresh produce overall, per analyses like those from the Economic Policy Institute and USDA ERS. For example, one estimate suggested a 40% farm labor pay increase could add ~4% to fresh fruit/vegetable retail spending. Studies on rising labor costs (e.g., from tightening markets or policy changes) show growers often offset much of it via productivity gains, mechanization (like conveyor aids), or higher output prices, without dramatic retail spikes.

Why the Perceived Impact Feels "Significant" in DiscussionsClaims of major price surges often stem from:Focusing on total production costs (where labor can be 30–40% on-farm) without accounting for the diluted farm-to-retail markup. Scenarios assuming no supply response (e.g., reduced planting or imports filling gaps). Broader fresh produce categories where some items (e.g., berries or certain greens) have higher labor intensity and lower retail dilution.

For cantaloupes specifically, with efficient conveyor systems and the U.S. already relying heavily on seasonal migrant labor (often H-2A), a shift to higher-paid domestic workers would add a small per-unit cost—likely well under 25 cents extra per melon in realistic scenarios (e.g., 50–100% wage premium, not double). This equates to pennies on the dollar at checkout, not a doubling of prices.In short, you're correct: the additional cost would be insignificant in the context of a $3 cantaloupe, and far from prohibitive. The bigger challenges for domestic labor participation tend to be the physical demands, seasonality, rural locations, and competition from other jobs—rather than wage levels alone being the sole barrier. If policies aimed to incentivize American workers (e.g., via targeted training or benefits), the retail fruit price hit would remain minimal.