๐๐ป https://x.com/michaelarothman/status/2041170242928619768
๐๐ป https://nitter/michaelarothman/status/2041170242928619768
(Copypasta follows)
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ โ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โ๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐
An Iranian dissident journalist went on GB News and delivered what may be the most illuminating six minutes of analysis on Iranโs war from anyone who actually understands the regime from the inside.
First, the leadership vacuum. He said the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is essentially invisible: โ๐๐ฆ ๐ฉ๐ข๐ท๐ฆ ๐ด๐ฆ๐ฆ๐ฏ ๐ฏ๐ฐ๐ต๐ฉ๐ช๐ฏ๐จ ๐ง๐ณ๐ฐ๐ฎ ๐๐ฐ๐ซ๐ต๐ข๐ฃ๐ข ๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ฆ๐ช, ๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ญ๐บ ๐ต๐ธ๐ฐ ๐ท๐ช๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ฐ๐ด ๐ธ๐ฉ๐ช๐ค๐ฉ ๐ข๐ณ๐ฆ ๐ค๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ต๐ฆ๐ญ๐บ ๐๐, ๐ข๐ฏ๐ฅ ๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ฆ ๐ธ๐ณ๐ช๐ต๐ต๐ฆ๐ฏ ๐ด๐ต๐ข๐ต๐ฆ๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ต ๐ธ๐ฉ๐ช๐ค๐ฉ ๐ฏ๐ฐ ๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐ฏ๐ฐ๐ธ๐ด ๐ธ๐ฉ๐ฐ ๐ธ๐ณ๐ฐ๐ต๐ฆโ. He called it โ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐ธ๐ฐ๐ณ๐ญ๐ฅโ๐ด ๐ง๐ช๐ณ๐ด๐ต ๐๐ ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ข๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ณโ โ meaning nobody actually knows who is running the country right now.
The people left to negotiate? โ๐๐ญ๐ญ ๐ฐ๐ง ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ๐ฎ ๐ข๐ณ๐ฆ ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ณ๐ฆ ๐ณ๐ข๐ฅ๐ช๐ค๐ข๐ญ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ข๐ฏ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐๐ณ๐ฆ๐ด๐ช๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ต. ๐๐ญ๐ญ ๐ฐ๐ง ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ๐ฎ ๐ข๐ณ๐ฆ ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ณ๐ฆ ๐ณ๐ข๐ฅ๐ช๐ค๐ข๐ญ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ข๐ฏ ๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ฎ๐ฆ๐ฏ๐ฆ๐ชโ. The moderate voices have been kโlled or removed. Only the hardliners remain โ and they donโt want a deal.
Then he revealed a conversation that explains ๐๐ฏ๐๐ซ๐ฒ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ง๐ about the Islamic Republicโs philosophy. Khameneiโs own economic advisor once asked him: if we become friends with the United States, weโll have higher economic growth. Khameneiโs response: โ๐๐ง ๐ธ๐ฆ ๐ฉ๐ข๐ท๐ฆ ๐ฉ๐ช๐จ๐ฉ๐ฆ๐ณ ๐ฆ๐ค๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ช๐ค ๐จ๐ณ๐ฐ๐ธ๐ต๐ฉ, ๐ธ๐ฆโ๐ณ๐ฆ ๐ฏ๐ฐ๐ต ๐จ๐ฐ๐ช๐ฏ๐จ ๐ต๐ฐ ๐ฃ๐ฆ๐ญ๐ช๐ฆ๐ท๐ฆ ๐ช๐ฏ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ญ๐ช๐จ๐ช๐ฐ๐ฏ ๐ข๐ฏ๐บ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ณ๐ฆ. ๐๐ฐ ๐ ๐ฏ๐ฆ๐ฆ๐ฅ ๐ต๐ฐ ๐ฑ๐ถ๐ต ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ๐ฎ ๐ช๐ฏ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ช๐ด ๐ด๐ช๐ต๐ถ๐ข๐ต๐ช๐ฐ๐ฏ ๐ฐ๐ง ๐ฑ๐ฐ๐ท๐ฆ๐ณ๐ต๐บโ.
Read that again. The Supreme Leader of Iran ๐๐๐ฆ๐ข๐ญ๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ง ๐ซ๐๐๐จ๐ซ๐ that the regime deliberately keeps its own people impoverished to maintain religious control. Thatโs not an accusation from the outside โ thatโs the regimeโs own operating philosophy, from the top.
He called it โ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ด๐ต๐ณ๐ถ๐ค๐ต๐ช๐ฐ๐ฏ๐ช๐ด๐ฎโ โ the Islamic Republicโs core ideology. ๐๐ ๐ฒ๐๐๐ซ๐ฌ of kโlling American soldiers with roadside bombs, kโlling Syrian citizens, attacking the U.S. embassy, attacking the U.K. embassy. He noted that the street the British embassy sits on in Tehran was renamed from ๐๐ก๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐๐๐ฒ ๐๐๐ง๐๐ฌ ๐๐ญ๐ซ๐๐๐ญ โ after an IRA hunger striker โ specifically to humiliate the British.
The most important part: what do Iranians actually inside the country think? โ๐๐ฉ๐ฆ๐บ ๐ด๐ค๐ข๐ณ๐ฆ ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ณ๐ฆ ๐ง๐ณ๐ฐ๐ฎ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐๐ด๐ญ๐ข๐ฎ๐ช๐ค ๐๐ฆ๐ฑ๐ถ๐ฃ๐ญ๐ช๐ค ๐ต๐ฉ๐ข๐ฏ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐ฃ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฃ๐ด. ๐๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐ฆ๐ง๐ง๐ฆ๐ค๐ต ๐ฐ๐ง ๐ต๐ฉ๐ฆ ๐๐ด๐ญ๐ข๐ฎ๐ช๐ค ๐๐ฆ๐ฑ๐ถ๐ฃ๐ญ๐ช๐ค ๐ช๐ด ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ณ๐ฆ ๐ฅ๐ฆ๐ด๐ต๐ณ๐ถ๐ค๐ต๐ช๐ท๐ฆ ๐ต๐ฉ๐ข๐ฏ ๐ข ๐ธ๐ข๐ณโ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ข๐๐ง ๐ฉ๐๐จ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ ๐๐จ๐งโ๐ญ ๐๐๐๐ซ ๐๐ฆ๐๐ซ๐ข๐๐๐ง ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐๐ฌ. ๐๐ก๐๐ฒ ๐๐๐๐ซ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ซ๐๐ ๐ข๐ฆ๐ ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฏ๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐๐ฆ.
China is taking a financial hit right now. They were already standing on shaky economic ground before the war started because it appears that Xi was shifting the country more to a wartime economy and back to the days of Mao versus the reform and opening up of Deng Xiaoping. All to better control the people. The majority of Chinese people are really suffering right now. Only those with connections to the party apparatus are doing well and are mostly oblivious to what is going on around them in the country. How they could not see the thousands sleeping in the streets and eating garbage out of trash cans is amazing - or maybe they don't want to see. Local authorities are so broke they are cracking down to extract what few resources the people have left through fines, taxes, fees, and just theft. Xi himself also is not in a good position. Like Iran, there may be some leadership power struggles going on behind the scenes within the CCP. Trump continues to add more pressure. Drip, drip, drip. Once he can neutralize the proxies, what can the puppet masters do at that point?
Right on target. They have been papering over a financial collapse for years. The oil shortage is adding stress. Also, China wonโt get $8 discounted oil anymore. There are several powerful families in China. I think Xi knocked two of the families. But that also made the other families on edge. I used to have really good intel on China from the Brother of a really good friend. I miss my friend.
Right? They lost the $20/barrel oil from Venezuela and now the discounted oil from Iran. It's not that they can't make up the supply from other sources - it's that they will have to pay market prices for that oil. Xi's sister was getting $20 oil from Venezuela and then selling it to small teapot refineries at $40-$60. The Xi family has vast holdings in oil, construction, rare earths, and real estate. They are worth trillions. So much for fighting corruption.
Xi did weaken the Jiang Zemin Shanghai faction to a great extent. They are still there, but weaker than their former selves. The Xi family have built their own factions and amassed great wealth. The Xi family faction, the first lady's Shandong faction, Xi's Fujian faction, Xi'an and Shaanxi where Xi family dragon vein is located, plus a few others. I wonder if Trump is ever going to finally drop that bomb on CCP wealth. The administration has given subtle hints here and there just to let the CCP know that we know. Completely missed by most people. But those that know, know.
The crunch on oil is already having huge impacts on manufacturing and logistics. Textiles and plastics have taken a big hit. Teetering factories already on the edge were finally pushed over the edge and have shut down laying off thousands of workers during a time of already absurdly high unemployment. Drivers have parked their trucks because the cost of fuel just doesn't make sense anymore. Containers have been pilling up at the docks and are being abandoned due to the storage fees. So yes, things have definitely been taken up a notch. Not sure how much longer they are going to be able to keep that bankrupt house of cards together. Many convergence points coalescing all at once.
Like you once did, I get a lot of information from actual Chinese dissidents with connections still in mainland China. They often leak information outside just so the story is told. They are fed up with the system but don't see any way out. They are waiting for the collapse of the CCP. China resembles the Soviet Union in their final years - seems to be the same trajectory to failure. Following CCP internal politics is like watching a Chinese imperial drama.
Excellent Mac1221. Donโt be a stranger, China is about to get more interesting. The CCP has penciled in 2027 to take Taiwan. They really need a CCP controlled democrat in the White House, but they donโt see that happening anytime soon.
Their biggest world leverage, rare earth and the processing of rare earth is steadily fading. RE Alloys is spinning up and Trump is securing other sources.
I have said for years that China is either going to implode or explode. The CCP sees two close mountains of gold: Taiwan and South Korea. A big reason that Trump is accelerating the fielding of the first 40 B-21s and F-47s.
Thank you. Yes, China is getting interesting. Huge internal fractures in the leadership for those of us who closely try to read the tea leaves of that CCP black box. There seems to be two centers of power that have taken shape behind the scenes that recently have been spilling out publicly - something rarely seen in CCP politics. Their efforts to demonstrate outwardly an internal stability are rapidly failing.
Xi appears to have lost some of his absolute control based on recent events. When the CCP leadership cannot protect one of their own, and possibly related by blood, that speaks volumes. I am speaking about the takedown of Ma Xingrui, a politburo member and close ally of the first lady Peng Liyuan, and possibly her cousin. That takedown has been spreading a much wider net that is involving the wives of several powerful players. Watch the wives. Not surprising. The entire system is corrupt - that's a given.
It appears that Xi's efforts to regain control of the PLA seem to have failed after his takedown of Generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli. The military has pushed back through silence and other CCP officials have also not cooperated. Xi has gotten himself in somewhat of a legal pickle taking down Zhang, a former close ally and a princeling, as well as a standing committee member and vice chairman of the CMC. Legally, a NPC member cannot be taken into custody without prior revocation of their NPC membership. That didn't happen. Then there is the unwritten rule of taking down another princeling. Usually there is more of a secret removal of NPC membership after an arrest, but Xi seems to not have obtained that in the case of the two generals. So he is stuck and the whole affair appears to be deadlocked. If Zhang died while in custody, as some are alleging, that makes things even more difficult for Xi.
As far as being on the board. I usually only chime in when I have something constructive to contribute on topics I actually have some knowledge about. I don't have the need to add my two cents on just making comments. I have no other social media accounts - never have. But, I am usually lurking in the background just to take the pulse of things happening in this community. So, I am not far. Have a great day fren.