My friend Craig Bergman offers a brilliant take: Unless you live under a rock or are intentionally obtuse, let me explain things. There is no cease-fire.
The reason there is no cease-fire is Iran no longer has a functioning government.
Trump negotiated with one of the larger factions.
There are 24 factions
Not all of them want peace. Not all of them will even negotiate.
So what is Trump doing?
It should be completely obvious to anyone who is not intentionally not wanting to understand.
He is pitting the factions against each other with competing interests for money and power and safety.
And when one of them betrays the other, they will take care of the bad one.
If they don’t, then Trump will randomly target them again and blame them all as if they are one government. That will frustrate them greatly, causing them again to turn on each other because there is no longer any single central authority.
This is absolutely brilliant, but if you think it’s gonna mean peace, if you think the Strait is really going to be open, and if you think Iran has surrendered and decided to play nice, you are delusional.
If you think Trump wants to murder 90 million people you are beneath delusional: you are intentional.
So chill out and watch the show: it is a master class.
And yes, I’m not predicting it. I am telling you what is happening.
This is not a guess. This is not an informed opinion.>
I am speaking fact. Watch it happen.
Nitter version for those without X (to read the comments):
This is what I have been saying all day and what I heard coming out of Iran by those on the ground and outside Iran that know what is taking place inside the country. It's chaos right now and they are all turning on each other.
Looks like another Sun Tzu strategm. This one is... No.18: Defeat the enemy by capturing their chief (擒贼擒王)
If the enemy's army is strong but is allied to the commander only by money, superstition or threats, then take aim at the leader. If the commander falls the rest of the army will disperse or come over to your side. If, however, they are allied to the leader through loyalty then beware, the army can continue to fight on after his death out of vengeance.
In this instance, since these factions were very likely not loyal to the then fearsome but now extra crispy Supreme Leader Khamenei, they're turning against each other, struggling for a power hierarchy... kinda like the Democrats. During this time we'll just wait. Of course the military has to KNOW that the factions are indeed not loyal to the leader for the strategy to work.
Essentially, let them defeat themselves from within, faction by faction. Brings us closer to the goal, yes, there will be blood but not on our hands. Eventually there will be a common ground between the left over factions, common ground may be just the will to live and not die in battle, but yet have the strength to unite.
An excellent post!
Here's the whole text:
Nitter version for those without X (to read the comments):
https://nitter.net/RodDMartin/status/2042022980276908278
This is what I have been saying all day and what I heard coming out of Iran by those on the ground and outside Iran that know what is taking place inside the country. It's chaos right now and they are all turning on each other.
Looks like another Sun Tzu strategm. This one is... No.18: Defeat the enemy by capturing their chief (擒贼擒王)
In this instance, since these factions were very likely not loyal to the then fearsome but now extra crispy Supreme Leader Khamenei, they're turning against each other, struggling for a power hierarchy... kinda like the Democrats. During this time we'll just wait. Of course the military has to KNOW that the factions are indeed not loyal to the leader for the strategy to work.
Essentially, let them defeat themselves from within, faction by faction. Brings us closer to the goal, yes, there will be blood but not on our hands. Eventually there will be a common ground between the left over factions, common ground may be just the will to live and not die in battle, but yet have the strength to unite.
Then we deal diplomatically with them.
Makes sense. Paying attention.