Excellent info. I think Russia will bounce back after the war. I think it will be over before the midterms.
China has been papering over a financial collapse for a long time. The tariffs and this oil shock has not helped. Trump wants to prevent the 2027 war for Taiwan or at least win it quickly. The CCP sees a big pile of gold on that island. Trump is asking for an additional $500B to accelerate the B-21, F-47 and hypersonic weapons build out. Just in case and as a deterrent.
Agree on your assessment of Taiwan. The scary part is that moving on Taiwan may be the only card Xi may have left to try to maintain his shaky legitimacy and power. War is sometimes used when authoritarian regimes have nothing else. Not a good move given the track record of failed Xi projects - not to mention China's tofu-dreg military, also a project of Xi. 100% failure rate at this point of every project and policy decision Xi has made since he came to power. Just the fact that Taiwan exists and is a functioning democratic market driven country of mostly Chinese people, is a total slap in the face to the CCP and especially Xi. One of the CCP's main talking points to justify Communist rule is that Chinese people are not compatible with democratic governance. Taiwan flies in the face of that claim and shreds the argument to pieces.
Russia however, that may be an economic crap shoot the longer Putin insists on dragging out his military operation. He has almost exhausted Russia's sovereign wealth fund to continue financing the military. Estimates are that it will be drained before the end of the year.
Almost a million Russian soldiers have either been killed or injured so far and the numbers of recent casualties in the last few months are staggering. Putin has tapped out manpower from the outlying, mostly ethnic, areas of the country and is now draining men from the heart of the country - Moscow, St Petersburg, and mostly ethnic Russian cities. The first couple years of the war, those populations of Russians were not affected as much as was the rest of the country, so the main base didn't really see the cost. That has changed. The war is now hitting Russians where they live.
All of these losses are men in their productive working years that will no longer be there to build Russian families and rebuild the country. There was already a demographic crisis of working age Russian men before the war even started. Between the battlefield losses and the brain drain of skilled and professional men that fled the country, Russia will have problems getting back on its feet in a non-military civilian economy. After 5 years, some of those that fled will not be returning.
Regular commercial business have been collapsing the last couple of years with little to no support from Moscow because of the switched focus to a wartime economic system. Interest rates are too high to make any business sense. Factories either reduce hours and production, or they simply close down. Even some of the military industries are having issues. Underemployment and unemployment are becoming serious issues along with inflation.
Ukraine's drone tech has recently changed the face of this war - and not in Russia's favor. Putin has no answer other than throw more soldiers into the drone kill zone. This is primarily focused in the southern parts of the country, but Ukraine is rapidly expanding. Ukraine has been slaughtering them using drones and their tech is getting so good that operators don't even need to be on the battlefront. They can operate some of these newer drones from behind a desk somewhere safe. The Russian military is not very good at real time innovation and adaptation. Not to mention that Russia's military, like China, has a huge corruption problem. It's systemic corruption especially among the officers and commanders that ultimately impacts the soldiers at the front. Ukraine is actually starting to reclaim territory that has been stalemated for some time. We can only wait to see if the Russians can counter Ukraine's recent change in tactics and equipment.
Putin is so desperate for money that he is tapping the oligarchs for "donations" and they are not happy about it. That wasn't the deal. They actually approached Putin for government bailouts because even they are sinking with the ship. Putin's unspoken contract with the Russian people and the oligarchs is starting to fail. The last year especially has seen things really deteriorate in Moscow and St Petersburg. Those cities have always been the base of the country and when they start showing serious cracks, things are getting bad. Putin can't afford to lose the approval of his base.
There is a point where things can go so far that the situation cannot be recovered. Russia is sadly approaching that point. They are not there yet, but the clock is ticking. I think Putin's goose is almost cooked. He either makes a peace deal and ends the war, basically admitting defeat and losing his legitimacy, or he continues to drive the country off the cliff. He spends a lot of time these days operating from within his bunkers. Is he worried about the Ukrainians, or is he worried about his own people? I think it's both.
I have been saying now for decades that China was either going to implode or explode. Meaning that the latter would be used to avoid the former. The Chinese are way underestimating our capabilities. We haven’t even used our cool stuff and look how quickly Iran went down. I call it Accelerated Warfare.
Thanks for the quality update on Russia. That reinforces my belief that the war will be over before the midterms.
Your assessment about Russia may be right on the money. I am not sure how much longer Putin is going to be able to hold it together without the economy crashing or the people revolting - probably both. That in turn will cause unrest in the satellite ethnic regions like Chechnya that will try to break away. The only reason they have not so far is because they have been getting paid by the Kremlin in exchange for their alliance. Putin is already losing Transnistria that is in the process of uniting with Moldova. Russia has not been able to keep supporting Transnistria any longer and they have essentially been cut off. Moldova in turn is in the process of integrating with Romania which is part of the EU and a member of NATO. 1500 Russian soldiers are now essentially landlocked and trapped in Transnistria with no way to extract them. With Transnistria off the table, Ukraine no longer has to worry about it's southwestern border. Putin's dream of a revived Russian Soviet Empire are quickly evaporating.
The revived Soviet empire has been off the table for quite some time. Putin is on a mission. Ukraine is DS/Nazi central. The US couldn’t go to war with Ukraine, so Russia had to. Plus they needed to rescue the ethnic Russians.
Excellent info. I think Russia will bounce back after the war. I think it will be over before the midterms.
China has been papering over a financial collapse for a long time. The tariffs and this oil shock has not helped. Trump wants to prevent the 2027 war for Taiwan or at least win it quickly. The CCP sees a big pile of gold on that island. Trump is asking for an additional $500B to accelerate the B-21, F-47 and hypersonic weapons build out. Just in case and as a deterrent.
Lots of pieces are in play.
Agree on your assessment of Taiwan. The scary part is that moving on Taiwan may be the only card Xi may have left to try to maintain his shaky legitimacy and power. War is sometimes used when authoritarian regimes have nothing else. Not a good move given the track record of failed Xi projects - not to mention China's tofu-dreg military, also a project of Xi. 100% failure rate at this point of every project and policy decision Xi has made since he came to power. Just the fact that Taiwan exists and is a functioning democratic market driven country of mostly Chinese people, is a total slap in the face to the CCP and especially Xi. One of the CCP's main talking points to justify Communist rule is that Chinese people are not compatible with democratic governance. Taiwan flies in the face of that claim and shreds the argument to pieces.
Russia however, that may be an economic crap shoot the longer Putin insists on dragging out his military operation. He has almost exhausted Russia's sovereign wealth fund to continue financing the military. Estimates are that it will be drained before the end of the year.
Almost a million Russian soldiers have either been killed or injured so far and the numbers of recent casualties in the last few months are staggering. Putin has tapped out manpower from the outlying, mostly ethnic, areas of the country and is now draining men from the heart of the country - Moscow, St Petersburg, and mostly ethnic Russian cities. The first couple years of the war, those populations of Russians were not affected as much as was the rest of the country, so the main base didn't really see the cost. That has changed. The war is now hitting Russians where they live.
All of these losses are men in their productive working years that will no longer be there to build Russian families and rebuild the country. There was already a demographic crisis of working age Russian men before the war even started. Between the battlefield losses and the brain drain of skilled and professional men that fled the country, Russia will have problems getting back on its feet in a non-military civilian economy. After 5 years, some of those that fled will not be returning.
Regular commercial business have been collapsing the last couple of years with little to no support from Moscow because of the switched focus to a wartime economic system. Interest rates are too high to make any business sense. Factories either reduce hours and production, or they simply close down. Even some of the military industries are having issues. Underemployment and unemployment are becoming serious issues along with inflation.
Ukraine's drone tech has recently changed the face of this war - and not in Russia's favor. Putin has no answer other than throw more soldiers into the drone kill zone. This is primarily focused in the southern parts of the country, but Ukraine is rapidly expanding. Ukraine has been slaughtering them using drones and their tech is getting so good that operators don't even need to be on the battlefront. They can operate some of these newer drones from behind a desk somewhere safe. The Russian military is not very good at real time innovation and adaptation. Not to mention that Russia's military, like China, has a huge corruption problem. It's systemic corruption especially among the officers and commanders that ultimately impacts the soldiers at the front. Ukraine is actually starting to reclaim territory that has been stalemated for some time. We can only wait to see if the Russians can counter Ukraine's recent change in tactics and equipment.
Putin is so desperate for money that he is tapping the oligarchs for "donations" and they are not happy about it. That wasn't the deal. They actually approached Putin for government bailouts because even they are sinking with the ship. Putin's unspoken contract with the Russian people and the oligarchs is starting to fail. The last year especially has seen things really deteriorate in Moscow and St Petersburg. Those cities have always been the base of the country and when they start showing serious cracks, things are getting bad. Putin can't afford to lose the approval of his base.
There is a point where things can go so far that the situation cannot be recovered. Russia is sadly approaching that point. They are not there yet, but the clock is ticking. I think Putin's goose is almost cooked. He either makes a peace deal and ends the war, basically admitting defeat and losing his legitimacy, or he continues to drive the country off the cliff. He spends a lot of time these days operating from within his bunkers. Is he worried about the Ukrainians, or is he worried about his own people? I think it's both.
I have been saying now for decades that China was either going to implode or explode. Meaning that the latter would be used to avoid the former. The Chinese are way underestimating our capabilities. We haven’t even used our cool stuff and look how quickly Iran went down. I call it Accelerated Warfare.
Thanks for the quality update on Russia. That reinforces my belief that the war will be over before the midterms.
Your assessment about Russia may be right on the money. I am not sure how much longer Putin is going to be able to hold it together without the economy crashing or the people revolting - probably both. That in turn will cause unrest in the satellite ethnic regions like Chechnya that will try to break away. The only reason they have not so far is because they have been getting paid by the Kremlin in exchange for their alliance. Putin is already losing Transnistria that is in the process of uniting with Moldova. Russia has not been able to keep supporting Transnistria any longer and they have essentially been cut off. Moldova in turn is in the process of integrating with Romania which is part of the EU and a member of NATO. 1500 Russian soldiers are now essentially landlocked and trapped in Transnistria with no way to extract them. With Transnistria off the table, Ukraine no longer has to worry about it's southwestern border. Putin's dream of a revived Russian Soviet Empire are quickly evaporating.
The revived Soviet empire has been off the table for quite some time. Putin is on a mission. Ukraine is DS/Nazi central. The US couldn’t go to war with Ukraine, so Russia had to. Plus they needed to rescue the ethnic Russians.