The Thucydides Trap is a political theory stating that when a rapidly rising power threatens to displace an established ruling power, the resulting structural tension often leads to a catastrophic, unintended war. It is most famously used by Xi, to describe modern U.S.-China relations, where China is the rising power and the United States is the ruling power.
The Greek Story: Athens vs. Sparta
The term was coined by American political scientist Graham Allison, who drew inspiration from the ancient Greek historian Thucydides and his account of the History of the Peloponnesian War.I n the 5th century BC, the Greek world was dominated by two mega-powers: Sparta, the established hegemon with the most formidable land army, and Athens, an emerging power experiencing a meteoric rise thanks to its booming naval empire.
As Athenian power, wealth, and influence grew aggressively, Sparta became paralyzed by anxiety that it would lose its top position. Regarding the cause of the resulting devastating 27-year war, Thucydides famously wrote:
"What made war inevitable was the growth of Athenian power and the fear which this caused in Sparta."
The Core Lessons In the classical Greek story, are that it was a lethal combination of structural shifting, unyielding pride, fear of the unknown, and a web of stubborn alliances that trapped both nations in an avoidable war.
However, modern historians and Allison emphasize that the "trap" is meant to serve as a warning rather than an absolute prophecy.
I think you have completely misinterpreted the situation. You aren't listening to Trump. Why did Trump cite the aspect of the Chinese People being the allies of the USA in WW2? Because THAT is the aspect both he and Xi are focused on. Not the Cold War scenario of the CCP vs the USA.
And Xi cited the Thucydides trap specifically because it is a concept and idea created by the UK Banker elite (globalist) system: created by Allison who was a student under Kissenger, the globalist agent who began the destruction of the USA in the period of Nixon and onwards.
And Xi asked, "Can we (USA and China) escape that 'trap'? Can we move beyond the globalist system of conflict with Communism vs Democratic nations, and find a different path forward, aka 'Art of the Deal' where the principle guiding international relations is not US vs Them, but mutual respect, sovereignty and cooperation that benefits both.
Trump is shouting this message at the world. Who is listening, and who is not? Those stuck in the old world matrix cannot hear what he (and Xi, and Putin for that matter) are saying.
I respect your opinions. But, I don't happen to agree completely on several points - the tres amigos being one of them. I could see Trump and Putin working together on something - to a point. But Xi? Absolutely not.
I don't believe I have misunderstood the situation at all. Xi's statement by default is making the assumption that China is a rising power and is on par with the US - even superior. Xi truly believes his own CCP BS propaganda. He dreams of being emperor of the world and that China is unstoppable. The CCP desperately tries to convince, not only their own people, but also the rest of the world that China is stronger than they actually are in reality. China is on the decline, economically, militarily, demographically, international prestige, foreign trade and investments, etc. China has missed its window of opportunity and is now getting old before it got rich. China did not beat the middle income trap before everything started to crumble. The CCP bit the hand that fed it on the way down.
Xi has surrounded himself with loyalist sycophants that don't dare tell him the truth. Even the thin cadre lineup to greet Trump was very telling. These details may not mean much to most Westerners, but it speaks volumes in CCP strict etiquette and protocol. Loyalty supersedes competency at all levels and many cadres have simply chosen to lay flat - tang ping. Those that have tried to give Xi honest evaluation, especially in regards to Taiwan, have paid the price for their honesty. Any news perceived as negative is viewed as speaking insults against China and risks one from being purged, or at worst, disappeared along with their family. Let's also not forget that the Xi family itself has amassed a global fortune that would rival any other puppet master cabal member. Trillions of dollars - not yuan - dollars. As long as Xi is in power, the family is untouchable. Thus, Xi is looking for lifetime rule like Mao and to install a dynasty. Imperial rule of sorts.
As far as China being an ally to the US during the war, both sides are dancing around the truth here and not being completely honest, either by ignorance of the facts, or by deliberate omission of the facts for the sake of optics. The CCP has always taken credit for a war they never fought. The CCP only participated in a few behind the lines gorilla actions, but it was the KMT that engaged in the bulk of frontline fighting against the Japanese. The CCP certainly did not fight along side Americans. The CCP had virtually little invested in a war that they now proudly point to and spin stories about as though they won. While hiding in the hills, and letting the KMT take the losses, the CCP built their troop strength to fight the KMT after the Pacific war ended. The weakened KMT was forced to retreat to Taiwan. The CCP uses the war with Japan to drive anti-Japanese nationalist sentiment in the country to deflect people's anger outward towards Japan, or the US, instead of inward towards the ones actually responsible for making their lives miserable - the CCP.
Yes, the land mass of China and Chinese citizens were involved in the war, but the governmental players and the armies were different. The PRC was not officially even in existence until 1949. It was the ROC/KMT under Chiang Kai-shek that fought the Japanese and it was the ROC under Chiang that witnessed Japan's surrender in Taiwan. Along with that surrender, the ROC took over administrative control of the island of Taiwan from the Japanese. It was not until 1971 that the UN recognized the PRC/CCP as the government of mainland China. Until then it was the ROC that represented China at the UN and who also had a seat on the security council.
I may be splitting hairs here, but I believe those facts are important. Communist China is the land of lies, fakes, and facades. They don't have much of anything substantial that was not stolen and copied from someone else - mostly the US. The rest is completely made up, but they promote it as something spectacular and people believe it - China is far ahead? What a crock.
The US and China have very little that can be used as a meeting point for purposes of cooperation and positive optics. The war is one of those points to have a meeting of the minds - but under the hood, even the war is fraught with problems. Trump was trying to find common ground and not be confrontational. Xi, however, was playing a different game altogether. Those that know how to read some of those CCP black box tea leaves saw lots of subtle signals. Some of it was ridiculous, but typical MO for the CCP. Ex: Last meeting of Trump and Xi - check out the photo and look carefully at the differences in the chairs and the cushions on those chairs and how it affected each's posture and sitting. Trump was definitely getting tired of the games - part of the reason the trip was so short.
Trump didn't need this meeting with Xi - but Xi desperately needed to meet with Trump. Trump threw Xi a huge lifeline because Xi's position in the Party is not firm. There is deadly factional infighting taking place within the CCP and has been for several years now. So, only time will tell whether that lifeline Xi was thrown was a mistake or not. As far as what Trump says, I don't take Trump literally - but I do take him seriously. I care far less about what they say versus what they actually do. So let's see what happens in the next few days and weeks to actually assess what shook out from the summit.
Thanks for hearing me out.
What a great, top quality reply!!! Thank you so VERY much, fren!
It's great to get a contrasting view (aka different opinion/different take) when presented so well, and without any sort of the usual angst that different opinions so often elicit on here or elsewhere!
I read through your comment here once so far. I'll try to revisit it. I think I can make an argument for my particular take (theory), but at this juncture, I'd like to cite any points of agreement. Hopefully these are coherent.
One, the difference between the CCP and the KMT.
I am relatively aware of this difference, and some of the history. I spent the better part of 2 decades living (in a very integrated way) in South Korea and Japan, and the issues around WW2 in the Pacific, on the Asian mainland, Taiwan, etc, are quite familiar to me.
You raise important points that I agree with here, how the CCP strategically let KMT take the brunt of the Japanese situation, only to stab them in the back once Japan was out of the picture. Etc.
I think your idea that Trump was throwing Xi a lifeline is interesting, and I think it maps on to some of the facts we have. That is, its a plausible explanation for things when taken from a certain perspective, namely that Xi is evil, that the CCP in China is in full control, in a monolithic sense.
Your references to let us say 'diplomatic subtlties', aka the 'face' put on things, like chairs, meeting contingents, protocols and etiquette, etc, are notable, and in large I agree that such things are relevant, although what they mean exactly hinges on what one thinks is going on.
Are these actually sending message A, who is sending the message, and to whom? This is worth discussing, I think.
I'm not sure, but it does seem to me that your take overall hinges on one particular point: that Xi is evil, desires to be Emperor of the world, and could not be working cooperatively with Trump against a common enemy.
For quite some time, my take on Xi has been very different. But, I'll leave this here for now, hopefully to reread your comment again, digest it, and try to formulate a response / rebuttal.
Thank you! Well written, articulate, and with obvious knowledge about a lot of factors pertaining to the scenario.
More soon, (hopefully)
Thought you might find this interesting. I was waiting to see what was going to shake out after the summit. Tim Cook the next day blew up the Chinese cell phone market by dropping the prices on Apple phones. This has occurred not long after Chinese cell phone makers collectively all raised their prices. I am sure there is more to come. Maybe Elon has a few surprises under his sleeves coming as well.
There is also things in this video making references to some of the CCP shenanigans I mentioned and also saw.
Sudden iPhone Price Drop Hits China Like a Nuclear Bomb, Crushing Domestic Phones
One thing that fed into (and from my perspective, mapped onto) my perspective on Xi was the recent 'debacle' with the armed forces.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=knCkbPc5JJc
What’s Really Going on Behind the Military Purge in China | Heng He
Its about the changes Xi made to the military hierarchy. The thing is, from a normie point of view, or the view that Xi is an evil maniac, the changes are naturally interpreted in one way. But from a different angle, the changes can be interpreted differently.
Heng He says that Xi's actions have completely destroyed the CCP structure, not to mention the structure of the CCP military. He calls it a coup, and says it violates CCP policy, and in that sense is even illegal. His interpretation is that Xi is aimed at making himself supreme solo dictator, replacing the dictatorship of the CCP.
But looking at it from the angle that Xi is working to ultimately liberate China from CCP rule, and to bring China out of the CCP past, it can be interpreted differently.
Reshaping the PLA in this way (destroying/disabling the vertical command chain) makes the idea of invading Taiwan untenable. In other words, it disables the war hawks inside the CCP who are pushing for a Taiwan invasion.
Also, Xi's steps 'violate' the CCP policy. So in effect, he is disabling or deminishing CCP control. The question is, is he doing this to make himself (kek, literal) god-emperor? Or, is he doing this as part of a plan to disable the CCP, weaken the grip of CCP hardliners, and smooth the path to eventual opening Glasnost style?
Time will tell, but I guess my point here is, both interpretations make sense depending on your starting premise. Which I think is interesting.
Also, I think people like Heng He can ONLY intepret it one way, because he's a normie deeply steeped in the prevailing normie narrative, that Xi is evil, because he is China and he is CCP, and so the ONLY reason he could be doing this is for insane, evil purposes.
But.... what if Xi and Trump are cooperating, understanding that each of them have real problems and issues at home (Trump in the USA/West, Xi in China) and so they do plenty of things for certain optics. Like the so-called <ahem> trade war of last year. Xi would know what Trump is doing, how he needs to reform and reignite the American economy system, and he's going to have to do tarrifs, etc, and Trump knows that Xi MUST appear to be fighting with the US, MUST appear to be <evil Chinese communist leader> to placate and keep things moving at home, even while he continuously takes steps that divest China of certain key, structural locks in the CCP system (steps like corruption purges, removal of rivals, <ahem> neutering the PLA, etc).
Trump is the absolute master of narrative warfare and appearing as one thing while doing another. Most of his enemies think he's an idiot, a buffoon, a blowhard, who doesn't know what he's doing. That's the narrative the media goes with, and Trump doesn't do anything to discourage, but feeds into it. because it gets them where he wants them to go. He controls the narrative to his advantage.
What if Xi is doing something similar, ala with a Chinese flavor. I don't mean acting a buffoon, but rather, presenting an image and playing a role externally, while pursuing actual objectives and agenda that, if certain sectors of the CCP really understood it, they would try to take Xi down and destroy him.
It's worth thinking about. imo.
Anyway, just one aspect (military restructing) but of course, there's a lot more to everything we're discussing.
I will be looking forward to your reply fren. Thank you for your kind words. I too appreciate good intelligent conversation which sadly, is often lacking on this forum. Also, I like the fact that you distilled out points of agreement as a framework for further discussion. Interesting that you bring to the discussion a perspective developed by actually having been in the Western Pacific. You certainly know more than most when it comes to the history of the area. It is important history and cultural considerations when evaluating the geopolitical climate of the region. The East does not think like the West. The same holds true with the Middle East. Westerners always regretfully assume that the thought processes and the value systems are the same - they are not.
I will agree with what you stated that I do indeed take the position that Xi is evil, and that evil exists on several levels. So much so, that he is willing to kill to maintain his position, and has already done so. Former Premier Li Keqiang comes to mind. Some very dirty business with his death and all roads lead back to Xi. At times, Xi and his family have even appealed to evil occultist forces. Despite the atheistic stance of the CCP, many Party members, including Xi, are very superstitious and do delve into "black arts." Sound familiar?
CCP politics at the moment is a bloodbath. There really is no good guy or bad guy in this political slug fest for domination of what I think is a dying regime. Xi pretty much single handedly is destroying the country. My take is that Trump is harnessing what Xi already put into motion, due to his own incompetence, to bring the regime down, or at the very least, severely weaken it. Putin may also be part of this plan of Trump's. Putin has an axe to grind with Xi. Trump can also harness that animosity as well. Xi and Putin don't trust each other regardless of the unbreakable alliance they try to project. Putin has an emergency meeting set up in Beijing tomorrow to meet with Xi post Trump's visit. I will see whether the CCP gives the visit any coverage or whether it's kept on the DL.