The Thucydides Trap is a political theory stating that when a rapidly rising power threatens to displace an established ruling power, the resulting structural tension often leads to a catastrophic, unintended war. It is most famously used by Xi, to describe modern U.S.-China relations, where China is the rising power and the United States is the ruling power.
The Greek Story: Athens vs. Sparta
The term was coined by American political scientist Graham Allison, who drew inspiration from the ancient Greek historian Thucydides and his account of the History of the Peloponnesian War.I n the 5th century BC, the Greek world was dominated by two mega-powers: Sparta, the established hegemon with the most formidable land army, and Athens, an emerging power experiencing a meteoric rise thanks to its booming naval empire.
As Athenian power, wealth, and influence grew aggressively, Sparta became paralyzed by anxiety that it would lose its top position. Regarding the cause of the resulting devastating 27-year war, Thucydides famously wrote:
"What made war inevitable was the growth of Athenian power and the fear which this caused in Sparta."
The Core Lessons In the classical Greek story, are that it was a lethal combination of structural shifting, unyielding pride, fear of the unknown, and a web of stubborn alliances that trapped both nations in an avoidable war.
However, modern historians and Allison emphasize that the "trap" is meant to serve as a warning rather than an absolute prophecy.
One thing that fed into (and from my perspective, mapped onto) my perspective on Xi was the recent 'debacle' with the armed forces.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=knCkbPc5JJc
What’s Really Going on Behind the Military Purge in China | Heng He
Its about the changes Xi made to the military hierarchy. The thing is, from a normie point of view, or the view that Xi is an evil maniac, the changes are naturally interpreted in one way. But from a different angle, the changes can be interpreted differently.
Heng He says that Xi's actions have completely destroyed the CCP structure, not to mention the structure of the CCP military. He calls it a coup, and says it violates CCP policy, and in that sense is even illegal. His interpretation is that Xi is aimed at making himself supreme solo dictator, replacing the dictatorship of the CCP.
But looking at it from the angle that Xi is working to ultimately liberate China from CCP rule, and to bring China out of the CCP past, it can be interpreted differently.
Reshaping the PLA in this way (destroying/disabling the vertical command chain) makes the idea of invading Taiwan untenable. In other words, it disables the war hawks inside the CCP who are pushing for a Taiwan invasion.
Also, Xi's steps 'violate' the CCP policy. So in effect, he is disabling or deminishing CCP control. The question is, is he doing this to make himself (kek, literal) god-emperor? Or, is he doing this as part of a plan to disable the CCP, weaken the grip of CCP hardliners, and smooth the path to eventual opening Glasnost style?
Time will tell, but I guess my point here is, both interpretations make sense depending on your starting premise. Which I think is interesting.
Also, I think people like Heng He can ONLY intepret it one way, because he's a normie deeply steeped in the prevailing normie narrative, that Xi is evil, because he is China and he is CCP, and so the ONLY reason he could be doing this is for insane, evil purposes.
But.... what if Xi and Trump are cooperating, understanding that each of them have real problems and issues at home (Trump in the USA/West, Xi in China) and so they do plenty of things for certain optics. Like the so-called <ahem> trade war of last year. Xi would know what Trump is doing, how he needs to reform and reignite the American economy system, and he's going to have to do tarrifs, etc, and Trump knows that Xi MUST appear to be fighting with the US, MUST appear to be <evil Chinese communist leader> to placate and keep things moving at home, even while he continuously takes steps that divest China of certain key, structural locks in the CCP system (steps like corruption purges, removal of rivals, <ahem> neutering the PLA, etc).
Trump is the absolute master of narrative warfare and appearing as one thing while doing another. Most of his enemies think he's an idiot, a buffoon, a blowhard, who doesn't know what he's doing. That's the narrative the media goes with, and Trump doesn't do anything to discourage, but feeds into it. because it gets them where he wants them to go. He controls the narrative to his advantage.
What if Xi is doing something similar, ala with a Chinese flavor. I don't mean acting a buffoon, but rather, presenting an image and playing a role externally, while pursuing actual objectives and agenda that, if certain sectors of the CCP really understood it, they would try to take Xi down and destroy him.
It's worth thinking about. imo.
Anyway, just one aspect (military restructing) but of course, there's a lot more to everything we're discussing.
Watched the interview. I have to concur with Heng He. What I will say in response to what you stated, is that Heng is right. There is only one way for the CCP to go, and that is down. Communism always ends the same way. Xi himself is a hard core Maoist. He really believes in Communist rule and that it is a superior system. Like many of the socialist minded loons in our own country, they believe that the reasons it never worked before is because socialism wasn't done right. There is no right way to do Communism or socialism - period.
Have you read any of Xi's writings? He is bought in 100%. When Xi took power he felt China was headed in the wrong direction and wanted to return the country back to a more pure form of Communism with Chinese characteristics. Even though his changes have brought the country and the CCP to its knees, he would never admit that. Yes, he is destroying the country. That was not his intention, but it is the result. Not because of some agreement with other leaders like Trump. Xi hates the US because of what we represent. He firmly believes that Communism is the only way forward which in the end will destroy Communist China. He believes that democratic governance is too chaotic and messy. He truly believes his own propaganda.
Back to what I said before about why Trump was throwing Xi a lifeline. I think I understand why Trump did that. Never interfere with an enemy in the process of destroying themselves. Many of the problems we face in our current world can be laid at the feet of the CCP. Xi is doing a good job at bringing it all down. But that is not his intension. Xi is neither that noble or smart. But like all members of the CCP, they have no reverse gear nor are they willing to right the ship. They can't. That especially includes Xi. The others will not act against Xi to remove him because they also want to preserve the party and are hesitant. So, they will all go down with the ship rather than make real political change. They don't know how and they are too invested in the system they have.
Will watch the whole interview later. I like American Thought Leaders. Good solid interviews. Thanks for sharing.
Where the problem lies, is that the CCP's power situation is not singular in nature. There is vicious infighting taking place within the party with no clear majority commanding control. The fighting is going back and forth.
Xi is alleged to have had a stroke at the start of the Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the CCP in July of 2024. Of course there was no official notice of this event. But for those that watch the CCP closely, something drastic had happened that the state media tried to cover up. Xi's life hung in the balance and he has no succession plan in place. He has always intended to rule for life. That is why he got rid of term limits which had been put into place under Deng Xiaoping to avoid another Mao. The doctor that actually saved Xi's life by preforming brain surgery mysteriously died shortly afterwards.
When Xi took ill at the Plenary Session, immediately General Zhang Youxia took control of the military. This is when Xi's position started to become shaky. If a CCP leader does not control the gun, they really do not control the party. With the help of the CCP elders, Zhang started to dismantle Xi's faction within the military. The elders also instituted a coordination body to put a check on Xi's actions. Many of Xi's hand picked generals were taken down by Zhang. Zhang also began a complete audit of the military last year. Lots of heads rolled in the military industrial complex due to the corruption uncovered in those audits. Many that think Xi is still in absolute control assume that Xi had taken them down. He didn't. All those military command positions are basically still vacant. The military command structure has essentially been gutted. Zhang was against moving on Taiwan. He was one of the few generals in the PLA with actual battlefield experience versus the rest of the political hacks. He knew that military action against Taiwan was a fool's errand.
There was a lot of pressure on Xi to step down and Xi made an agreement with the elder faction to step down, but in a gradual way of transitioning power back from a single man central rule to a more collective party rule as it had been until Xi dismantled it to centralize power. This move was against Zhang's advice. He knows Xi and did not want to give him any opportunity to make a counter move. Which is exactly what Xi did this Jan when he took general Zhang down along with general Liu - and not according to CCP law and military protocol. Xi's goal is survival, his and his family and what they have built. Which is a massive fortune. Right now, he is extremely paranoid. Taking Xi down all at once would in essence bring the party down with him. That is one big draw back to one man party rule. So, the elder faction has to move with caution. Keeping Xi somewhat untouchable and Xi knows it.
The priority of the elders, and those aligned with them, was to preserve party stability at all costs so as not to bring the entire house of cards down. They wanted to preserve the party and the benefits they all derive from the party. Xi took a very risky move by removing the generals. He had already made a lot of enemies in the military with his previous purges. Corruption is a common excuse to purge political enemies in the party. Xi was no different. Plus, the methods used to take down the generals was against the unwritten rules of the party elites. Zhang not only was a high ranking general and member of the Politburo, but he is also a princeling - an absolute no no of unwritten party rules. The generals cases still have not had resolution and are essentially in limbo. Their official positions within the party are still intact. So far, it remains in a deadlock. Many party leaders do not want this as a president or none of them are safe.
Xi now is afraid to leave Beijing because he fears a military coup. Xi still controls the Beijing garrison and much of the public security forces there, which Xi expanded their numbers in Beijing. Beijing has been almost completely locked down since the generals were taken down. To travel to Beijing people need a permit and it is only good for 7 days. Checkpoints are all over the city.
Neither side at the moment has a firm hold on the situation. Thus, I think this was part of the rationale behind Trump's visit. To evaluate how much power Xi actually wields and his health status. So, the turmoil within the party is not coming from a single direction and Xi does not have absolute control as he once did. All factions are realigning and jockeying for position - all while trying to portray stability on the surface. But the purges have been so brutal it is getting harder to keep it all under wraps. It makes it very hard for foreign intelligence to figure out exactly who is calling the shots. The power within China is divided. Xi still controls for the most part the propaganda machine to control the narrative and the public security apparatus within Beijing. Xi also moved his family within China to Beijing along with family members of some of his key people. Xi does not have control over the military and because of the arrest of the two generals, Xi has not gotten pledges of loyalty from anyone holding a theater command. Many of the regional and local officials are lying flat. Everyone is running scared and are afraid of getting caught up in the bloodbath.
I do completely agree with your assessment of Trump. He is a master of strategic ambiguity. Xi always plays one roll in public while doing something else behind the scenes. That is how he operates. He cannot be trusted. That is coming from people that know him personally, even back before he became a household name. These people of course are outside of China. There is no way they could say things like that and stay alive in China.
I hear your position, but there is too much stacked up for me that screams otherwise. Nothing is ever black and white. It's usually shades of grey and China right now is definitely in a grey area. Xi, as well as the rest of the CCP ilk, have committed too many atrocities for me to believe any of them are any good. They are all evil and corrupt as hell. Xi included. Been watching Xi too long to think any different. Xi's own corruption and thirst for absolute power has left him no way out. Trump will navigate the situation the best he can to keep the fallout to a minimum should the party implode.
Thanks again for your well stated rational thinking.