Instead of removing the naval blockade slowly in line with Iran's behavior, Trump agreed to remove it immediately, which he ordered and posted about it. That move has pissed a lot of people off. Unfortunately it was a huge diplomatic loss for Trump. Now the regime senses weakness in Trump for the sake of getting this overhyped MOU over the finish line and they are going to play it for even more concessions. It is not a peace deal. It is nothing more than an agreement to continue talking. But Trump is giving up a lot just to keep the Iranians at the table. Why?

Just like clockwork, now the Iranian regime is demanding part of their $25 billion before they will even meet on Friday or even sign anything. They want half of this paid this week before any meeting with the rest to follow. If that happens and Trump gives in to their demands, that is a huge loss and of course the Iranians will spin it as a victory to the home crowd. Sadly, it would be true. It looks like surrender. They still have not agreed to even sign the MOU according to Iranian sources. The Pakistanis can't be trusted any more than the Iranian regime. The only thing Trump has gotten so far is that they have agreed to discuss nuclear. Nothing more. Just talk. What they say in Farsi isn't even close to what is being said in English. They have not changed their stance about anything according to them. They will not give up their nuclear program or the stockpile.

Trump has made such a huge deal out of not being like the others and paying the Iranians to end up with nothing but agreements they never meant to keep to begin with. They do not change. They have no intentions of giving up anything voluntarily. Trump is going to lose a lot of his base support if he caves in to the Iranians just for the sake of a stupid piece of paper that in the end really means nothing. An extended ceasefire agreement for 60 days to continue negotiations. This is all the Iranians have really agreed to. But the administration keeps selling this as though it is a finalized peace settlement. Not a good look at all and he is spending a lot of credibility for this.

The only thing the news about it has done is make the markets happy and oil is down. I just checked maritime traffic a short while ago and only saw one ship going through the Strait. Not sure when the Strait is supposed to actually be open. The Iranians are still claiming sovereignty over the Strait and they will manage it with Oman. Charging a toll of course. I know you have to take Iranian media with a huge grain of salt, but when Trump says one thing and reality speaks of another, it is hard to reconcile the difference.