From Telegram @BraveSpirit17
July 18 - https://t.me/BRAVESPIRIT17/6150
Eng. 😡🤬China is moving military equipment to the south of the territory. The movement of military columns from the northern territories to the south was noticed. All indications are that China is preparing to attack Taiwan.
Rus.😡🤬 Китай перебрасывает военную технику на юг территории. Было замечено движение военных колонн с северных территорий на юг. Все указывает на то, что Китай готовится напасть на Тайвань.
VIDEO #1
https://files.catbox.moe/6ff359.mp4
VIDEO #2
https://files.catbox.moe/9swzy9.mp4
VIDEO #3
https://files.catbox.moe/68cbus.mp4
VIDEO #4
https://files.catbox.moe/nj1rum.mp4
VIDEO #5
https://files.catbox.moe/nz1si7.mp4
July 20 - https://t.me/BRAVESPIRIT17/6214
Eng. Fujian Province - Southeast China, 07/19/2022 Some admit that these are rocket launchers. Is China preparing to attack Taiwan?
Rus. Провинция Фуцзянь - Юго-Восточный Китай, 19.07.2022 Некоторые признают, что это ракетные установки. Готовится ли Китай напасть на Тайвань?
The best video I've seen on China, or at least the one that made the most sense.
https://youtu.be/WEHQjbEEcg8
Short version... while they have the army to occupy Taiwan and they have enough warships to attack from the sea and really give a good fight. LOTS of destroyers. They have far too few ships capable of moving troops. If they lose even a few ships in the early stages then they will never be able to sustain a fight on the actual beach much less resupply the ones they manage to land.
The real problem is if China decides they want to take the Russian approach... and just blast the island into a smoking hole in the ground with conventional weapons. Nukes would spark off a whole other thing but massive conventional bombardment for a long time followed by a small scale invasion might work.
The problem with that is it gives everyone else plenty of time to rush to defend Taiwan and the next thing you know USA F-22 and F-35 fighters have sunk the whole fucking Chinese navy. Now what?
Bottom line China knows that doing anything serious to Taiwan militarily will spark off WWIII. That's not good for anyone. Also... Russia did okay with the sanctions. The same type of sanctions being placed on China would cause them to have massive starvation and a shortage of certain key things like oil. They would collapse under their own weight in a year if cut off from the rest of the world.
This is all smoke and mirrors. China isn't going to do jack shit. Japan and South Korea aren't France and Germany. They will strait up go to war with China if they start attacking other nearby nations. USA and AU will get drug into the fight and UK/Canada will soon follow. All hell will break lose.
Japan would go to war with China simply because the day of week happens to end in "y". Much unresolved feelings there.
Give them an actual valid reason to fight the Chinese? They'll make the most of it. 80 years of pent-up aggression... Won't be pretty.
And Taiwan actually belongs to Japan, and was pried away by globohomo after WW2...so there is that. I suspect we get a "fake" liberation of Taiwan from CCP by Japan and allies, with Japan taking "custody" of all the chip plants (and then never leaving).
Under this scenario the nationalist CCP gets to punch Taiwan and CCP globalists in the face; and then Japan gets to do it again.
I think you make a lot of good points except this one
What you really mean is cut off from the US Dollar. They would still have Russian oil and fertilizer. However idk where they'd get their food from since they must import food and their biggest importer of food is USA. If there's an abundance of fertilizer from Russia they might be able to finagle a deal with several smaller countries for food.
Overall imo its not as clear cut if they got cut off since you have India, Russia, Nigeria, and a few smaller ones like El Salvador cutting off dollar and Euro collapsing. Everyone will be hurting and not in a position to follow US sanctions if they don't know where their next meal will come from.
That's kind of my point though. Their oil problem isn't that great if they do stay aligned with Russia. However, Russia has a food problem as well. They have enough to eek by and not have massive starvation(that's why Putin wants to steal Ukraine's bread basket) but they can't export to China. China on the other hand has shitty soil and WAY too many people relative to the amount of usable land. If they get truly cut off it will turn into a shit-show FAST.
I know its complicated. I'm just saying China is actually VERY vulnerable overall. The USA could close its borders, 100% lock-down tomorrow, and still have plenty of oil and food. We would have to build some manufacturing up for electronics and cars etc but it wouldn't take 2-5 years and everything would be fine. VERY few other countries can say the same.
Truth is we might not just be fine we might be WAY WAY better off if we did exactly that.