Ukraine has a GDP that is 9 times smaller than Russia. They had less than 1/10th the military spending that Russia had in 2021. Russia has over 3 times the population as well.
By all accounts and estimations (including those in the west), Russia should have decisively won in the first few weeks. Russia is massively under performing. They haven't been able to even hold their initial gains they made early in the war. Still, Russia is a heavy hitter. If all aid was cutoff today, Ukraine could probably still hold out for months, maybe even years. Their victories and progress so far has solidified their resolve and there does not seem to be an danger of a political coup. They might be able to reach some kind of a stalemate and negotiate a ceasefire. But that isn't winning.
For Ukraine to realistically go on an offensive they would need heavy weapons and aid to keep their economy afloat.
Also, in the long term, even if Russia was able to overrun and occupy Ukraine, the war has been extremely costly for them. At best, it would be a Pyrrhic victory.
The US civil war was supposed to be over in one battle, when the Union army marched out to Manassas ( ha, I said “man asses”🤪) and trounce the Rebs. Folks showed up with picnic baskets to watch. Union army ran back to DC and it turned out to be a long protracted war. Morale of the story- Union still won (which is unfortunate in retrospect). It had money, numbers, industry, and transportation. Russia is the Union. Ukraine will fall
No other countries joined the Confederacy. The UK almost did, but they ended up sitting on the sidelines. The west is supplying Ukraine with a lot of equipment and weapons. On it's own, Ukraine could not hold out. But I think the West is happy to continue to bleed Russia out.
And the sanctions on Russia are crippling. I've seen people around here trying to down play it, but they're cutting off Russia from the global market. Long term, they might be able to be more self sufficient, but in the medium term, they're going to have major problems.
Hmm, this has made me do a little more digging. The UK did provide aid to the CSA, especially weapons. I don't know if this was simply in exchange for cotton, or if any of it was simply given to help further future British interests. Thanks for the info, I learned something today.
I still think Russia is in a very precarious situation, but I guess time will tell.
I dont believe Russia is under performing at all,.Putin called this a Special Operation,. to protect the people of the Donbass,.,and to Guarantee Russias Security,at this point and time Russia is said to be using only about 30% of their Millitary Force,
.As per Global Firepower, Russia has around 12,500 in tanks in 2022.
On top of this, the country has 30,000 other armoured vehicles, 6,500 self propelled artillery, 7,500 towed artillery and 3,300 rocket projectors.
This means that Russia’s land forces total at around 60,000 military vehicles.
The country also has just over 4,000 aircraft and 600 naval vessels.
Not to mention one of the most Powerful Nuclear Arsenals in the World,.
They still have a sizable Force in Syria,..
The reason Putin called this a Special Operation and not a "WAR " is because they are trying to accomplish it,without undue harm to the civillian population and try and avoid unecessary Infrastructure Damage
Putin knew that If Russia went in there like Shock and Awe and started Bombing Critical Infrastructure, homes and killing civilians in large numbers it would have turned the Civillian population against them,.as what happened in Iraq, The US belieeved that the Iraqis ,would welcome them with open arms in fact it was just the opposite,.,.Remember this is not Russias war as the Media keeps telling everyone who still listens to them, but it is an ongoing war since the US initated (sponsored ) Maidan Coup in 2014 against a Duly Elected President,." boy they like their Coups" ,,huh.
I just don't buy it. If Russia could win the war sooner, they would have already. If they could have taken Kiev in the early days of the war, they would have. That would have wrapped everything up in just a few weeks. I've seen some around here try to justify it by saying that never wanted to take Kiev, but accomplished some minor goal and then pulled out, but it seems like just an excuse.
Don't get me wrong, Russia is still a major powerhouse. They do have a lot of equipment and weapons, but much of it is from the Soviet era. Russia has some advanced weapons like the T-14 Armata Tank and SU-57 Fighter Jet, but we're not seeing them being used. Maybe they're waiting to pull them out, but the longer this fight goes on, the less it favors Russia.
I'm not dooming here, just trying to be a realist.
From day1 Putin has said his goal was to stop the bullying and genocide in the Donbass,. &.to guarantee Russias,.Security, he said his goal was not to try and take back the Ukraine but to Demilitarise and denazify,.it, that has always been their goal,Putin has modernised his millitary to a point where very few of the older Soviet era equipment remain,.I see theyre still using a few,of the older, t-64 & t-72 Tanks ,though,. The newer t-90 have started to be delivered to the NVO zone,.As i stated earlier,Russia has said that as of now they only have about 35% or Less of their total millitary strenghth in Ukraine,If they had designs on taking Ukraine im sure they would have had way more Troops and Equipment in their,..Russia has no need to use ,.their Fighter Aircraft,, The Cost of a Calibre Cruise missile is about a $1,000,000 as apposed to a SU 35 maybe $25,000,000 plus the 2 pilots if they are killed,.Russian cruise missiles can cover the whole of Ukraine,.so rUssia sees no point in using therir Aircraft unless they really had to,.
Re SROs: It appears that in the founding papers of the United Nations, Russia was granted the right to execute "Special Military Operations" for the purpose of expelling Nazism if it re-emerged in the former World War II combatant territories.
The Russians are sticklers for legal observance (when the law is on their side).
( It appears that in the founding papers of the United Nations, Russia was granted the right to execute "Special Military Operations" for the purpose of expelling Nazism if it re-emerged in the former World War II combatant territories.) So basically what what this means is, that what Russia is doing is Legal,.?
That's what I have read. And it explains perfectly why Putin is so insistent on the SMO terminology, and imposes civil penalties for any claims otherwise. I think he wants to be able to use this legality in any dispute within the United Nations. This is one of the reasons why he is at pains to stress "demilitarization" and "deNazification" as the goals as it fits squarely within the legal language.
You gotta update your picture of this conflict. Go listen to some talks by Colonel Douglas MacGregor for some proper analysis. Plenty on YT that covers this topic in depth.
Losses are at least 8:1 in favor of RU, their initial goals were stated to limit as much damage as possible and try to force a relatively peaceful resolution. This obviously didn't pan out as they underestimated just how keen for open war the west was, so they fell back and initiated the grinder, almost now achieving their second goal of demilitarizing UA.
The media, and your own, conditions for 'winning' aren't lined up with what they're actually trying to do. At no point have they ever indicated they want to take and hold all of UA, and RussiaManBad has stated multiple times that he believes western UA would prefer to be under Polish rule anyway.
The Duran and The New Atlas also have great objective coverage on this topic.
So what are the estimated losses for Ukraine and Russia?
It's hard to say UA is demilitarized, when weapons are pouring in. I've read people saying that NATO is running out of weapons, but can you honestly say that the UA has less capabilities now than they did when the war started.
Ukraine has a GDP that is 9 times smaller than Russia. They had less than 1/10th the military spending that Russia had in 2021. Russia has over 3 times the population as well.
By all accounts and estimations (including those in the west), Russia should have decisively won in the first few weeks. Russia is massively under performing. They haven't been able to even hold their initial gains they made early in the war. Still, Russia is a heavy hitter. If all aid was cutoff today, Ukraine could probably still hold out for months, maybe even years. Their victories and progress so far has solidified their resolve and there does not seem to be an danger of a political coup. They might be able to reach some kind of a stalemate and negotiate a ceasefire. But that isn't winning.
For Ukraine to realistically go on an offensive they would need heavy weapons and aid to keep their economy afloat.
Also, in the long term, even if Russia was able to overrun and occupy Ukraine, the war has been extremely costly for them. At best, it would be a Pyrrhic victory.
The US civil war was supposed to be over in one battle, when the Union army marched out to Manassas ( ha, I said “man asses”🤪) and trounce the Rebs. Folks showed up with picnic baskets to watch. Union army ran back to DC and it turned out to be a long protracted war. Morale of the story- Union still won (which is unfortunate in retrospect). It had money, numbers, industry, and transportation. Russia is the Union. Ukraine will fall
No other countries joined the Confederacy. The UK almost did, but they ended up sitting on the sidelines. The west is supplying Ukraine with a lot of equipment and weapons. On it's own, Ukraine could not hold out. But I think the West is happy to continue to bleed Russia out.
And the sanctions on Russia are crippling. I've seen people around here trying to down play it, but they're cutting off Russia from the global market. Long term, they might be able to be more self sufficient, but in the medium term, they're going to have major problems.
Wrong, same situation. UK gave them money, clothes, enfield rifled musket. Just no troops.
You’re either a shill or missed the memo that whatever the media says, the truth is the opposite.
Hmm, this has made me do a little more digging. The UK did provide aid to the CSA, especially weapons. I don't know if this was simply in exchange for cotton, or if any of it was simply given to help further future British interests. Thanks for the info, I learned something today.
I still think Russia is in a very precarious situation, but I guess time will tell.
I dont believe Russia is under performing at all,.Putin called this a Special Operation,. to protect the people of the Donbass,.,and to Guarantee Russias Security,at this point and time Russia is said to be using only about 30% of their Millitary Force,
.As per Global Firepower, Russia has around 12,500 in tanks in 2022.
On top of this, the country has 30,000 other armoured vehicles, 6,500 self propelled artillery, 7,500 towed artillery and 3,300 rocket projectors.
This means that Russia’s land forces total at around 60,000 military vehicles.
The country also has just over 4,000 aircraft and 600 naval vessels.
Not to mention one of the most Powerful Nuclear Arsenals in the World,. They still have a sizable Force in Syria,..
The reason Putin called this a Special Operation and not a "WAR " is because they are trying to accomplish it,without undue harm to the civillian population and try and avoid unecessary Infrastructure Damage
Putin knew that If Russia went in there like Shock and Awe and started Bombing Critical Infrastructure, homes and killing civilians in large numbers it would have turned the Civillian population against them,.as what happened in Iraq, The US belieeved that the Iraqis ,would welcome them with open arms in fact it was just the opposite,.,.Remember this is not Russias war as the Media keeps telling everyone who still listens to them, but it is an ongoing war since the US initated (sponsored ) Maidan Coup in 2014 against a Duly Elected President,." boy they like their Coups" ,,huh.
I just don't buy it. If Russia could win the war sooner, they would have already. If they could have taken Kiev in the early days of the war, they would have. That would have wrapped everything up in just a few weeks. I've seen some around here try to justify it by saying that never wanted to take Kiev, but accomplished some minor goal and then pulled out, but it seems like just an excuse.
Don't get me wrong, Russia is still a major powerhouse. They do have a lot of equipment and weapons, but much of it is from the Soviet era. Russia has some advanced weapons like the T-14 Armata Tank and SU-57 Fighter Jet, but we're not seeing them being used. Maybe they're waiting to pull them out, but the longer this fight goes on, the less it favors Russia.
I'm not dooming here, just trying to be a realist.
From day1 Putin has said his goal was to stop the bullying and genocide in the Donbass,. &.to guarantee Russias,.Security, he said his goal was not to try and take back the Ukraine but to Demilitarise and denazify,.it, that has always been their goal,Putin has modernised his millitary to a point where very few of the older Soviet era equipment remain,.I see theyre still using a few,of the older, t-64 & t-72 Tanks ,though,. The newer t-90 have started to be delivered to the NVO zone,.As i stated earlier,Russia has said that as of now they only have about 35% or Less of their total millitary strenghth in Ukraine,If they had designs on taking Ukraine im sure they would have had way more Troops and Equipment in their,..Russia has no need to use ,.their Fighter Aircraft,, The Cost of a Calibre Cruise missile is about a $1,000,000 as apposed to a SU 35 maybe $25,000,000 plus the 2 pilots if they are killed,.Russian cruise missiles can cover the whole of Ukraine,.so rUssia sees no point in using therir Aircraft unless they really had to,.
Re SROs: It appears that in the founding papers of the United Nations, Russia was granted the right to execute "Special Military Operations" for the purpose of expelling Nazism if it re-emerged in the former World War II combatant territories.
The Russians are sticklers for legal observance (when the law is on their side).
( It appears that in the founding papers of the United Nations, Russia was granted the right to execute "Special Military Operations" for the purpose of expelling Nazism if it re-emerged in the former World War II combatant territories.) So basically what what this means is, that what Russia is doing is Legal,.?
That's what I have read. And it explains perfectly why Putin is so insistent on the SMO terminology, and imposes civil penalties for any claims otherwise. I think he wants to be able to use this legality in any dispute within the United Nations. This is one of the reasons why he is at pains to stress "demilitarization" and "deNazification" as the goals as it fits squarely within the legal language.
You gotta update your picture of this conflict. Go listen to some talks by Colonel Douglas MacGregor for some proper analysis. Plenty on YT that covers this topic in depth.
Losses are at least 8:1 in favor of RU, their initial goals were stated to limit as much damage as possible and try to force a relatively peaceful resolution. This obviously didn't pan out as they underestimated just how keen for open war the west was, so they fell back and initiated the grinder, almost now achieving their second goal of demilitarizing UA.
The media, and your own, conditions for 'winning' aren't lined up with what they're actually trying to do. At no point have they ever indicated they want to take and hold all of UA, and RussiaManBad has stated multiple times that he believes western UA would prefer to be under Polish rule anyway.
The Duran and The New Atlas also have great objective coverage on this topic.
So what are the estimated losses for Ukraine and Russia?
It's hard to say UA is demilitarized, when weapons are pouring in. I've read people saying that NATO is running out of weapons, but can you honestly say that the UA has less capabilities now than they did when the war started.