Wagner forces have surrounded the headquarters of the Russian Southern Military district in Rostov, and tanks have their cannons aimed.
(twitter.com)
Who's been more effective?
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Something big is indeed happening, that much is undeniable. This may be bigger than any news in the last 60 years, as implications may be world and history changing. If it's real, this could trigger WW3 as Putin may not back down. If it's fake, this may trigger the "habbening" of the storm, as Putin is obviously a chess piece in the story/movie.
TL;DR: this may reveal the true reach of either Q (is it real, does it have worldwide influence, etc) or the DS (did they play a giant, unexpected move?), and may trigger the rest of the storm.
Here's my questions:
Why would Russia fire missiles at its own mercenary unit?
Why would that "middle" have absolutely zero ground disturbance?
Wagner Group announced they're fed up what, two weeks ago? And marched back. Russia is known to wipe out troops who retreat from the battlefield. Russia is known to monitor troop movements. They would have seen this coming, it's not like Wagner Group Instant Transmissioned over to the city. Why wouldn't Russia have prepared to stop this insurrection?
Why would Wagner Group fight Ukraine, then turn around and fight Russia? Do they expect Ukraine and NATO to just forgive them, and Wagner has been accused of war crimes?
if some random account on Twitter claims the CIA convinced the Wagner general that Putin is gonna off him, why wouldn't the Kremlin also know this, and put a stop to it?
Something else to consider:
A foreign invading force into Russian territory would warrant all our war by Putin, as he has stated intervention by foreign military and/or invasion onto Russian soil would result in a full declaration of war.
This is not a foreign invading force: "this be ya own"
What does this mean as a response from Putin? Putin wouldn't drop bombs on his own city when morale is already down throughout Russia. Or would he?
If he does, this would be seen as worthy of intervention from NATO? I don't think so. But if the DS is in control of NATO, why wouldn't they strike when Putin is appearing weak?
If Putin doesn't take action, would this give room to conspiracy theories: "how do you make it appear that you have cornered an animal without causing actual outright harm to the animal nor the handler?" Putin has reason to appear weak and cornered, where if this was planned and orchestrated by both parties, then there is something greater happening, without the result of any casualties.
You have made a very high effort post that lists exactly what Russian MoD wants the West to be thinking right now. Now consider the other possibility, that Prigozhin is working hand in hand with MoD to create MILDEC tension they can use to do things like catch Ukrainian infiltrators and justify tighter control they need to counter something the actual enemy is sending their way.
Yes, this is not that far fetched either.
I was listening to Col. Macgregor yesterday talking about some of the Russian tactics they have been using. Recently, the Russians set up a fake missile battery with lots of explosives for UKR to target. When they hit it, there was a huge explosion. This convinced the UKR troops they were on target and for all nearby artillery to open up on the position.
In reality, the ploy was for UKR to give up their artillery positions, which RUS quickly took out.
It’s called impeachment. Have you seen the movie “Wag the Dog”
A comment from the Moscow Times (which I cannot recover) suggested that the circumstances and stresses of battle command have gone to Prigozhin's head, and he has arrived at a messianic sense of mission ("on the white horse"). The same commenter said it is a common syndrome that happens...until the rider falls off. But Prigozhin hasn't yet fallen off.
The Moscow Times is a western-biased publication. Think MSM narrative peddler.
That may be so, but the quotation was apt. The Moscow Times coverage was essentially identical to the TASS coverage, but there wasn't much to "cover," as the situation was (and is still) murky.
There is some commentary that Prigozhin may have been "turned" by the CIA, but his behavior suggests that he has a serious bee in his bonnet. Delusions of persecution and grandeur?
It's just acting. Already came to an agreement with Putin with Lukashenko moderating in less than a day with zero shots fired or any combat of any sort whatsoever.
"when morale is already down"? Russia is absolutely winning the Ukrainian conflict. I don't believe any of the western sources on this theater. The following is from "Simplicius", who stated a few possible options for what could actually be going on.
#1. Prigozhin is working with AFU/SBU/CIA to backstab and destroy Russia, coordinating his actions with them.
#2. Prigozhin is secretly working with Putin to remove the stodgily entrenched Russian command. Notice, not in a single one of his rants has Prigozhin accused Putin or so much as even mentioned his name. There’s a possibility that all this is theater to cause a “conciliatory deal” to be made which will result in the ‘stepping aside’ of Shoigu. Putin has previously “laterally promoted” (in actuality demotions) several big name siloviki in the past. For instance, Sergei Ivanov who was deputy prime minister and presidential chief of staff was “moved” to head some ‘ecological’ department. Could we see Shoigu used as a fig leaf to settle the impasse by “laterally” moving him to some other ostensibly ‘important’ (but actually irrelevant) position?
#3. Everything is actually “as is” and whatever we see on the surface of the conflict pretty much represents what’s really happening.
If say, #1 above is the case, it would mean the following:
The Wagner mutiny began clearly prematurely. The front is not broken, ukry do not win. In this situation, rebellion means "stab in the back" and the army will not support it.
The prematurity of the rebellion (which was clearly planned in advance) is caused by a simple fact: in the near future, Prigozhin would certainly be deprived of the main part of his troops - to maintain even a 30,000th military group at his own expense, without the support of the state (read - funds and materials from the Moscow Region RF) - he definitely could not have been for more than a couple of months (and even then - hardly);
At the moment there are no videos, etc. evidence of the active actions of the "Wagners". There is information that their forces in the rear training camps did not know anything at all and were not ready to act. With a high probability - only a part of the units concentrated in the Lugansk region takes part in the rebellion.
"Campaign to Moscow" for "Wagner" is extremely difficult - most tanks simply will not reach Moscow on their own, it is generally useless to drag artillery to Moscow, and attacking in light armored vehicles means risking defeat along the road, which is generally "easier than easy ". Everything rests solely on the presence of loyal units ready to fulfill the order and open fire to kill ("Akhmat" may well execute, for example, and not only "Akhmat")
If by the morning (that is, after 5-6 hours) "Wagner" does not achieve significant success (and so far no success has been heard of it) and military units do not openly go over to its side, the rebellion will drag on and every day it the final success will be more and more improbable... well, if the Kremlin doesn't screw up out of habit, of course, and start urgently "searching for compromises" and exposing Prigozhin to use the overworked nose of a well-known VIP official.