"Simplicius" stated a few possible options for what could actually be going on.
#1. Prigozhin is working with AFU/SBU/CIA to backstab and destroy Russia, coordinating his actions with them.
#2. Prigozhin is secretly working with Putin to remove the stodgily entrenched Russian command. Notice, not in a single one of his rants has Prigozhin accused Putin or so much as even mentioned his name. There’s a possibility that all this is theater to cause a “conciliatory deal” to be made which will result in the ‘stepping aside’ of Shoigu. Putin has previously “laterally promoted” (in actuality demotions) several big name siloviki in the past. For instance, Sergei Ivanov who was deputy prime minister and presidential chief of staff was “moved” to head some ‘ecological’ department. Could we see Shoigu used as a fig leaf to settle the impasse by “laterally” moving him to some other ostensibly ‘important’ (but actually irrelevant) position?
#3. Everything is actually “as is” and whatever we see on the surface of the conflict pretty much represents what’s really happening.
If say, #1 above is the case, it would mean the following:
The Wagner mutiny began clearly prematurely. The front is not broken, ukry do not win. In this situation, rebellion means "stab in the back" and the army will not support it.
The prematurity of the rebellion (which was clearly planned in advance) is caused by a simple fact: in the near future, Prigozhin would certainly be deprived of the main part of his troops - to maintain even a 30,000th military group at his own expense, without the support of the state (read - funds and materials from the Moscow Region RF) - he definitely could not have been for more than a couple of months (and even then - hardly);
At the moment there are no videos, etc. evidence of the active actions of the "Wagners". There is information that their forces in the rear training camps did not know anything at all and were not ready to act. With a high probability - only a part of the units concentrated in the Lugansk region takes part in the rebellion.
"Campaign to Moscow" for "Wagner" is extremely difficult - most tanks simply will not reach Moscow on their own, it is generally useless to drag artillery to Moscow, and attacking in light armored vehicles means risking defeat along the road, which is generally "easier than easy ". Everything rests solely on the presence of loyal units ready to fulfill the order and open fire to kill ("Akhmat" may well execute, for example, and not only "Akhmat")
If by the morning (that is, after 5-6 hours) "Wagner" does not achieve significant success (and so far no success has been heard of it) and military units do not openly go over to its side, the rebellion will drag on and every day it the final success will be more and more improbable... well, if the Kremlin doesn't screw up out of habit, of course, and start urgently "searching for compromises" and exposing Prigozhin to use the overworked nose of a well-known VIP official.
I have read that Putin has had a face-to-face sit down meeting with Prigozhin within the last 10 days. Also, Wagner was used to skirt the law against Russia, invading other countries and giving them plausible deniability. However, with the SMO 90% complete the need for Wagner and the legality of using Wagner would soon render them useless. After being disbanded 7/1/2023 Wagner fighters who wish to could sign a contract and be given positions within the Russian military.
Maybe they seen this as a perfect opportunity to use them within Russia, to perform a massive psyop and subversion campaign before being disbanded next month.
Maybe Prigozhin got a taste of the power/fame he acquired during Bahkmut and couldn’t imagine signing that power and his men over to the Russian military, who he openly berated for what some say, our personal grudges. Before Wagner, he was a cook. If Wagner became part of Russian forces, he would be out of a job and irrelevant. I believe since he got away with publicly shaming the Russian Military etc in Bahkmut that he believed he could pull this little stunt and actually get the defense minister removed and get away with it.
He made a video this morning, responding to Putin, where he is completely downplaying what he has done and making it seem like it is a fucking parade, and not a insurrection.
That's a reasonable analysis, except for one caveat. Prigozhin wouldn't be out of a job because he named Dmitry Utkin as director general of Prigozhin's Concord Management. In November 2016 the company confirmed to Russian media that the same Dmitry Utkin leading the Wagner Group was now in charge of Prigozhin's food businesses.
It appears Prigozhin has his fingers in several businesses.
He made a video this morning, responding to Putin, where he is completely downplaying what he has done and making it seem like it is a fucking parade, and not a insurrection.
At this point, I don't think Putin has any choice.
Either Prigozhin dies in conflict, or he is arrested, put on trial, and executed for treason.
Any other option and Putin loses some power in the eyes of the military and the people of Russia.
This looks more like troop movement cloaked under some planned psyop thing. The southern front appears to be under control, move wagner up (law of war: appear weak when you are strong), and prepare for the next front push
"Simplicius" stated a few possible options for what could actually be going on.
#1. Prigozhin is working with AFU/SBU/CIA to backstab and destroy Russia, coordinating his actions with them.
#2. Prigozhin is secretly working with Putin to remove the stodgily entrenched Russian command. Notice, not in a single one of his rants has Prigozhin accused Putin or so much as even mentioned his name. There’s a possibility that all this is theater to cause a “conciliatory deal” to be made which will result in the ‘stepping aside’ of Shoigu. Putin has previously “laterally promoted” (in actuality demotions) several big name siloviki in the past. For instance, Sergei Ivanov who was deputy prime minister and presidential chief of staff was “moved” to head some ‘ecological’ department. Could we see Shoigu used as a fig leaf to settle the impasse by “laterally” moving him to some other ostensibly ‘important’ (but actually irrelevant) position?
#3. Everything is actually “as is” and whatever we see on the surface of the conflict pretty much represents what’s really happening.
If say, #1 above is the case, it would mean the following:
The Wagner mutiny began clearly prematurely. The front is not broken, ukry do not win. In this situation, rebellion means "stab in the back" and the army will not support it.
The prematurity of the rebellion (which was clearly planned in advance) is caused by a simple fact: in the near future, Prigozhin would certainly be deprived of the main part of his troops - to maintain even a 30,000th military group at his own expense, without the support of the state (read - funds and materials from the Moscow Region RF) - he definitely could not have been for more than a couple of months (and even then - hardly);
At the moment there are no videos, etc. evidence of the active actions of the "Wagners". There is information that their forces in the rear training camps did not know anything at all and were not ready to act. With a high probability - only a part of the units concentrated in the Lugansk region takes part in the rebellion.
"Campaign to Moscow" for "Wagner" is extremely difficult - most tanks simply will not reach Moscow on their own, it is generally useless to drag artillery to Moscow, and attacking in light armored vehicles means risking defeat along the road, which is generally "easier than easy ". Everything rests solely on the presence of loyal units ready to fulfill the order and open fire to kill ("Akhmat" may well execute, for example, and not only "Akhmat")
If by the morning (that is, after 5-6 hours) "Wagner" does not achieve significant success (and so far no success has been heard of it) and military units do not openly go over to its side, the rebellion will drag on and every day it the final success will be more and more improbable... well, if the Kremlin doesn't screw up out of habit, of course, and start urgently "searching for compromises" and exposing Prigozhin to use the overworked nose of a well-known VIP official.
I have read that Putin has had a face-to-face sit down meeting with Prigozhin within the last 10 days. Also, Wagner was used to skirt the law against Russia, invading other countries and giving them plausible deniability. However, with the SMO 90% complete the need for Wagner and the legality of using Wagner would soon render them useless. After being disbanded 7/1/2023 Wagner fighters who wish to could sign a contract and be given positions within the Russian military.
Maybe they seen this as a perfect opportunity to use them within Russia, to perform a massive psyop and subversion campaign before being disbanded next month.
Maybe Prigozhin got a taste of the power/fame he acquired during Bahkmut and couldn’t imagine signing that power and his men over to the Russian military, who he openly berated for what some say, our personal grudges. Before Wagner, he was a cook. If Wagner became part of Russian forces, he would be out of a job and irrelevant. I believe since he got away with publicly shaming the Russian Military etc in Bahkmut that he believed he could pull this little stunt and actually get the defense minister removed and get away with it.
He made a video this morning, responding to Putin, where he is completely downplaying what he has done and making it seem like it is a fucking parade, and not a insurrection.
That's a reasonable analysis, except for one caveat. Prigozhin wouldn't be out of a job because he named Dmitry Utkin as director general of Prigozhin's Concord Management. In November 2016 the company confirmed to Russian media that the same Dmitry Utkin leading the Wagner Group was now in charge of Prigozhin's food businesses.
It appears Prigozhin has his fingers in several businesses.
At this point, I don't think Putin has any choice.
Either Prigozhin dies in conflict, or he is arrested, put on trial, and executed for treason.
Any other option and Putin loses some power in the eyes of the military and the people of Russia.
This looks more like troop movement cloaked under some planned psyop thing. The southern front appears to be under control, move wagner up (law of war: appear weak when you are strong), and prepare for the next front push