Siege of Avdiivka: Russian Forces Cut All the Supply and Reinforcement Routes for the Ukrainians, in a Move to Encircle the City
(www.thegatewaypundit.com)
💥 UKRAINE COLLAPSE 💥
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Gateway Pundit seems behind the news in Avdiivka.
Avdiivka has not gone well for the Russians. They tried a surprise attack to encircle the city. If you look at Avdiivka, Russia is occupying land both above and below it. The northern advance gaining a few hundreds meters the first day and the southern attack failed almost entirely. Last week they were trying 60 attacks a day, now they are trying 15 per day.
Analysts have noted that a few days ago, Russian officials saying they were conducting "active combat operations," not Putin himself, changed it to "active defense operations."
https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1713710394206724600/photo/1
So Russia had made small gains at a very high cost.
On Oct 13, Russia was estimated to have lost 1,000 troops 25 tanks 50 armored personnel carriers 44 artillery systems 33 fuel vehicles.
One reason for this is supposedly Urkaine blew up a crucial bride used for supplies 30 KM behind Russian lines.
It's possible Russia is going to regroup and eventually take Avdiivka, but these are some of the worst Russian losses in the whole war.
I don't know why you're getting downvoted negative, unless people just aren't following what's happening in Ukraine. I know it's difficult. I have to follow multiple Telegram sources, so it's very forgivable.
First, re: sources.
Second, you're absolutely right on the situation at Avdiivka.
What do I expect?
Russia's going to have to flatten the city. There's no other choice. They've cauldroned the troops, surrounded the city and can attack from 3 sides. They've got fire control (artillery range) over their supply lifeline to the west. So, this is effectively a siege and the question will be whether they can resupply via tunnels or something. But yeah, expect this to be slow, methodical, and bloody. Russia's going to make the rubble bounce like a rave.
Tell the farm they need better DS BS then this.
Dude, I'm sorry, but you cited the Gateway Pundit. I'm not sure anyone who works there knows that Russia has tried to take this city since last year
They've tried multiple times to encircle the city this year, going back to March.
They are running into the same problems the Ukrainians are running into elsewhere. When the defensive force is well prepared, you need a LOT of firepower to make gains. A Russian Military blogger was saying today unless they can muster 5x or 10x offensive power, they shouldn't attack.
A BTR-50 APC was destroyed near Avdiivka. Search that on twitter to see why that's significant.
Khe sanh was well fortified also. Had Charlie stayed longer it would have been LBJ's Dien Bin Phu . I will not hold your youth against against you. Time is on Russias side.
Russia has yet to take Avdiivka. Things slowed down last week, but in the past couple of days they making a new push on Avdiivka.
But more importantly, you said two things. You accused me of DS talking points and you said the tables have turned in Ukraine.
I think we can use this as a reality check. Can we try to figure out what is happening vs, say what we what to happen. We can use this as a check. We can see what happens with these two questions
Will Russia have Avdiivka by Jan 1?
If they take Avdiivka, at what cost?
My theory is the Avdiivka is a political rather that a strategic objective. They are trying to take it to have a big "win" before the winter slows things down.
If you were doing an AAR on Avdiivka so far what could you say?
What went well for Russia is they basically launched a sneak attack. They were able to mass a lot of men and equipment and take Ukraine by surprise about 10 days ago.
What didn't go well is they seemed to have lost a lot of men and equipment without much gain in territory. For example Valerii Zaluzhnyi the CIC of Urkanian forces supposedly was in Avdiivika in the past two days to meet with the commanders there. There's video of him walking around.
Another development in Ukraine is the arrival of long distance ATACMS missiles from the US.
Ukraine used them airfields in Berdyansk and Luhansk and hit a large number of helicopters.
This is significant, because Russia is going to have to move their airfields and other targets further from the front.
I'll file this with all the other "Guyz Russia is akchually losing" disinfo that has been propagated for the past 18 months.
you should read this comment as well.
https://greatawakening.win/p/17rSjJal6H/x/c/4Tz049hTMHR
They sure know how to drag things out. This conflict over small backwater territories will soon have lasted as long as half a world war.
Not sure how accurate this is. Any cooberative sources fren?
https://twitter.com/RussianPropX/status/1713712275448881565
Reliable sauces corroborating?
This is the problem with crossing disinfo streams. Need to silo them to the target audience so they can't be cross referenced for exclusionary conclusions.
Correct.
#RussiaIsLosing #RussiaIsCollapsing ????
Very credible sauce. 🙄
I don't know if you trust ISW, but there maps are geolocated and have been accurate over the course of the war. Plus they link to their primary sources
In their latest report they point this assessment by a Russian military blogger https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F8anr-qX0AE7vmN?format=jpg&name=large
Russian is gaining 10 meters a day he says and suffering heavy losses, and he asks even if they take the town after a while, can this considering success.
Putin not using the word counteroffensive, but instead active defense I also think is telling. I agree that this seems to be managing expectations
https://x.com/UKikaski/status/1713484368469950869?s=20
Both Ukraine and Russia are preparing for winter. Trying to make gains before everything slows down and each side builds reinforcements.