Currently Paper Gold is selling @ over 100 X amount mined for the year, and Silver is worse at north of 400 X the amount mined.
I'm not going to research gold in depth for this article, but Silver mining produces around 1B Troy Ounces a year currently so its about $30 B a year in new silver worldwide, a very small amount of Gross World Product of 100T, but with paper trading over 400 they turn it into a $12T churn.
Most silver is mined as a Byproduct of other mining, Gold ,Aluminum, Copper, and other . Several reports that China is buying up silver pre-refining and that isn't reported in the 1 B ounces. Will do research and confirm or deny with sauce.
Silver is the most conductive elemental metal and that is it's usefulness in Electronics, Batteries, Solar Panels. Without the conductivity of the silver where needed, all of the above would be unpractical in regards to power transfer efficiency. Over Demand for silver has been the case for a few years, but the amount of silver stockpiled up by industries, central banks, and bullion collectors, etc... Is massive.Silver is also antimicrobial and used in internal and external medicines
Another bright spot will be when silver is legal tender and in common use. A downside is lesser demand because Meh solar, and electric cars suck.
Gold @ 100 Paper per actual oz mined, which is crazy numbers high too. Gold is also used in electronics, but a lot more sparingly, its purpose is where staying shiny and untarnished matters like CPU and connector pins. They don't have to be solid because bost electricity travels along the surface of the wire. Gold is used in dentistry, but its not that big of market. Some estimates put gold at over 50% in Jewelry, but I think that is misleading. All the Central Banks are sucking it up and have been since their inception.
Gold is more steady in % of ups and downs, but silver is way more useful, Link shows ratio of mined/ price etc. of gold and silver From link:
Geologists estimate that there are approximately 19 ounces of silver for every ounce of gold in the earth’s crust, with a ratio of approximately 11.2 ounces of silver to each ounce of gold that has ever been mined. Interestingly, the silver-gold ratio in ancient Egypt was 1:1.
Current Gold silver ratio is about 85, so gold is way over valued compared to scarcity and silver's usefulness.
It's about 800 million oz mined a year.
The 1 Billion Oz may include recycled...
I stacked a little to keep myself from having a zeroed out bank account a year ago in May, I watch a lot Mining and stacking stuff. I'm not formally educated except a years Electronics Vocational Cert. and about 37 College credits towards Programming and. Networking.
Yankee Stacking is a good Channel, his LCS owner is based, but both are making bank. So I enjoy the content, but am not interested in over paying, and I want to get as much as possible selling. Yankee makes money from doing live streams where he gives away prizes via online superchats A few automatically, the rest at 1 Oz silver Item or coin per 100 Superchat . YouTube gets a cut, but Silver is just about 28.50 so he does ok.
Silver Dragons is another good channel, and his LCS gives out prices. Three different dealers an old guy, middle aged guy, and a young guy. A better and just as informative show.
Both these guys do collaborations. Both do Online Bullion tours of the big players, have interesting guests etc...
Yankee staking is good,I used to watch him all the time.
The 800moz is mined, so recycling would add to that.
Bald guy money also has decent content and analytical stuff that is easy to grasp.
Yeah, I learned a lot from him, an Expat, but he researches very well.
"Gold is way over valued". Incorrect. Silver is way under valued.
About 8.5 - times. For the reasons you stated. If it's real value were promoted then solar and electric crap would not be affordable for them to produce. The industrial silver market for solar alone is in deficit of almost 200 million.
Many of us hold some and have no intentions of parting with it unless we are n using it for money.
I'm going to be slowly reducing my stack to become debt free, and to pay bills ahead. Don't need to sell it all though. My debt is at 0 APR, so I'm in no rush.
So what does this mean for gold and silver prices?
12000/oz silver when shtf?
Hmmmm, sounds a bit unrealistic, but then again, I DID ask the question, so I know less than you do on the subject.
It's not THAT unrealistic. Don't get me wrong, I don't think it'll even out at that level, but I and many others believe it'll be anywhere from that much to over $25K an ounce for a period of a couple months when shtf.
You have to realize, there's more factors to this than just mining rates and overall reserves. For example, when prices start going up rapidly EVERYONE with a little bit of money and hopes of getting rich will start throwing money at the silver market, driving up demand to insane levels and driving supply down at the same rate. All the crypto people and other wannabe financial gurus will start shilling for silver as "the opportunity of a lifetime", and even normies will probably get interested after seeing the new on it. FOMO and other psychological factors will help drive it up to unsustainable levels for a few months before it crashes back down to more reasobale prices when people can no longer afford to drive it up.
The best thing I can compare this too, ironically, is the bitcoin run in 2017 and 2018. Over the course of a few months, bitcoin went from being a couple hundred a coin to just under $20K a coin, or like in the past couple years where it went from a few thousand a coin to 40-60K a coin.
It won't STAY at these insane numbers, but it'll be there for a few months time before crashing back down to something more reasonable like 2-5K an ounce.
You're quite possibly right on these points, but no matter what silver does in the markets, I will stubbornly hang onto mine. As I've said elsewhere, silver is NOT an 'investment' to me, it's a hedge against total societal and currency collapse... end times stuff. No banks, no law enforcement, no civil protections, a dystopian world where survival becomes a day to day struggle.
If that ever happens, I plan to gather with my closest neighbors and form a protective force for our area, and hunker down ready to repel invaders. Silver will be my only means of making transactions.
For those with debts, such as houses, it may hopefully be a great way to pay them off for what amounts to a very small price now.
Just the fact that paper to physical silver is 400:1 When all those folks holding worthless paper want their physical silver, the price must jump.
Just to clarify, you're saying that silver paper certificates exist (and presumably have been sold) that are 400 times greater than the actual availability of physical silver? If so, that is one hell of a Ponzi scheme.
Yes. That keeps silvers price suppressed through false volume. Gold the same. When they cash it out they'll just print fiat for it. Another massive scam.
Thanks!
Well stated.
Well if the US Debt Clock is accurate on the plan to use Gold, Silver, and other commodities as money, it will increase demand and should put a huge dent in the silver and gold stockpiled up by whomever. Gold likely to be harder to use for small purchases, silver will be the buy groceries. get your hair cut currency .
There are all kinds of off the chain estimates, but how much silver and gold that has been mined over thousands of years? How much coin minted does the world need?
Gold was 20.63 in 1913, The first minimum wage law in Cali was introduced in 1913, setting the rate at $0.16 per hour. That 1 oz of Gold took 129 hours of Min wage Labor to buy. 2024 Gold at 2344 an oz, Cali Minimum wage is 16 an hour so an Oz of gold would take 146 hours at Cal Minimum wage, actually more hours because of all the taxes we pay in 2024. But reasonably close.
In 1913 A nice suit cost 16 bucks, a nice hat under 10, a good pair of shoes 5 bucks, lets say 1.5 Oz of gold. Today a nice suit can be had for 600, but you can pay literaly 10's of thousands. You spurge and get the 1,500 dollar suit, 250 bucks on shoes, and another, 200 bucks on a hat. So its cheaper now, but mass produced compared to taylormade.
Gold and silver is a way to keep your wealth from going blip. Not necessarily to get rich! However there seem to be a lot of factors to consider. When the fiat paper on gold, silver, and other commodities goes away Its true value will be shown. I'm optimistic that the prices will rise, but some people are coming up with crazy prices. Gold is already bouncing around its record. Silver is at 28.50 but The silver all-time high was US$48.70 per ounce, a level it reached on January 18, 1980. Demand is greater now than then, but the 400X mined sold via paper keeps the price down. So if silver was at 48 44 years ago, its reasonable to assume it may go that high again.
People predicting 5,000 silver are crazy! All the people stockpiling will start selling long before 5,000
Very cogent reply, thanks. I too think it's unrealistic to think that silver would go, and stay, at $5000/oz, there are way too many market forces to act as "confounding variables" to accurately predict its price.
In the scenario you laid out, it is QUITE interesting how the individual buying power, wages, silver and gold have maintained relative equal ground.
As to your last point, I never have considered silver as an "investment" in the traditional use of the word. I never planned to 'buy low, sell high.' It has always been put back as a secret hedge against disaster when the dollar won't buy anything. Such disasters could include anything... major earthquakes, civil war, invasion, nuclear war, total collapse of the dollar... anything that might cause the dollar to become worthless. Then and only then would the silver come out, and the 'lead' to protect it and my family.
Exactly. PM is a storage of wealth to lock in value so inflation can't keep chipping away at it.
I think you're spot on regarding "too many variables to predict price" going forward...I mean think about it.
On one hand you've got say, photovoltaics that use silver ink to silkscreen the buss bar grids onto the wafers/cells and if you've followed the market for the past 25 years, you'd know that sub $4/watt was a goal for a long time... and we've been there for a few years now (it's sub $3/w now) - So there's room for that to equalize now that China has cornered the market on production. Increasing input costs via more expensive silver would obviously make prices go up.
But then you have things like consumer electronics. If say the price per ounce went from a spot of say $30 to a spot of $300, you're now looking at an incredible increase all across the board on everything from kids video games, phones, tablets and PCs now ridiculously priced. Good video cards now hovering around say $750, would probably be like $5k - so who's going to buy that? I won't say nobody, but 95% less ...it would seriously decimate a number of companies and markets that exist right now.
The other thing that is a possibility, or really an inevitability, is the dollar going to zero, causing a world wide reset of pricing on everything, where prices are rolled back to circa 1913 numbers. This is where face value of PM minted coins could actually be the real numbers, where a one ounce silver eagle is $1, a one ounce gold buffalo is $50 (50:1 ratio BTW) and everything is reset to that "constitutional" yardstick. Of course that's not cut and dry either because a quarter is still $0.25, and the nickel enrobed POS they've been passing off lately is in no way worth 1/4 of an ounce of silver...So yeah, not everything is cut and dry.
It's really hard to say how it would all balance out... and if history is any gauge of who gets cornholed when currency shits the bed, I'd say hedge your bets and get the lube ready, because it's always the hard working citizens that have to reap the whirlwind while the rich manipulators of the hidden hand club do another rich man's trick... let's hope this time instead if a rabbit, they pull out a honey badger and it turns on them...
Hope springs eternal...
In your opinion, how many ounces is a good FRNReset T=0 target to have on hand?
I'd say whatever you can afford to put away. For a while there, we stopped contributing to the casino (stock market) and did PM instead. Our initial goal was 1k oz Ag, but we've gone way over that due to pucker factor and stacking longer than we initially planned... and I'm glad we did.
After we acquired so much Ag that we got sick of the volume and weight (lol) we decided to focus more on Au, simply because of the value to density ratio. Besides, we already acquired enough US face value coins to address the SHTF scenario (which BTW, contrary to popular belief is NOT the main reason to get PM... it's simply a serendipitous "feature") - Again same basic recipe of getting face value us minted coins, then maybe some gold snap offs, then just go for weight via bars with assay.
I didn't bother with platinum, palladium or anything like that. Most don't have a clue they're even a thing and while it might not be a bad idea to grab some just for s&g, I'm okay not having any. Of course the "other " semi precious metals, like brass and lead are definitely something to have in your doomsday SHTF scenario, whether to consume or barter/trade with. Choose your calibers carefully... That's one reason when selecting a piece you don't "dare to be different" with goofy calibers. And even though I don't partake, it's good to have some "real good drinkin liquor", smokes and other wartime necessities for consumption or trade. People would be surprised how much a can of tuna (51g of protein) is worth after a few weeks of no food...or "I'm never gonna poop again" MREs 😂😂😂
1000-2000 oz seems like basically a full years salary for an artisan, from what I can tell. Would agree that’s a pretty good milestone.
The cost of electronics part of this is really overinflated. Yeah, cost WOULD go up, but the thing about it is, the companies that make those products push out so much that it equalizes via economies of scale. The more of a particular product you deal in, the less the price of the "materials" matter, and the more the end price matters. This assumption also doesn't account for the fact that electronics are sold at stupid high markups.
For example, a typical iphone costs roughly $200-300 to manufacture. They then typically sell that same phone for $700-2000. That's a 330-1100% markup. They can, and will, sell at a lower profit. Some profit from a lower markup is better than no profit because no one will pay $10K for an iphone.
TL;DR: Stupid high silver prices really aren't gonna change electronic prices that much. It may go up slightly, but it's more likely that it'll just eat into the profit margin of tech companies.
Not really crazy. No offense, but the same people saying that are the same people saying bitcoin was worthless. Which don't get me, I don't like crypto because I don't get it, but I'm not dumb enough to realize that people who have gotten in before each of the major "rushes" came out like bandits.
The same thing is gonna happen with silver and gold. More silver than gold though. You have to realize, things are WAY different now than they were in 1980. The internet is a thing now, information is instant, and you have entire cultures of millions of "finance bros" and other cultures of millions of people wanting to get rich quick all over the world.
You're also no accounting for the largest offenders of the "paper manipulation" going under. Once all the big naked shorters fall, silver WILL go up to insane levels. That's just a basic market principle, without JP Morgan and "friends" driving the price down insanely low, it'll naturally climb to a much higher level. And with a 400X fake silver factor, it's not gonna stop at $50 an ounce. With big banks failing, the world appearing to be ending, and the manipulation being stopped, its gonna be a several thousand an ounce at least. 5K an ounce being the generally agreed upon "real value"
Ignoring the normie factor (cause don't doubt for a second that normies won't try to get it on this in hopes of making it big: Look at gamestop, AMC, etc.), FOMO and other factors will drive the prices of every financial commodity, silver, gold, crypto, etc. to insane levels for at least a few months. So yeah, it's entirely likely we'll temporarily see 12K+ silver for a few months, probably even 20K+, when the larger banks start failing and the world appears to be ending. But then it'll quickly crash down to "normal" levels of 2-5K an ounce.
Now having said all of that, if we go back to the gold and/or silver standard, this'll be a weird situation where yes, your silver is worth 2-5K an ounce in todays money, but when the new financial system gets going, it'll be a much lower number due to deflation.
TL;DR: It's not crazy to say silver is going to be crazy value wise. You're underestimating the ape behavior of people in general as well as how much of an effect not having literal trillions of dollars of fake silver floating around will have on the price of the metal.
I like your analysis. So, when it reaches extreme highs, do we sell a tin of our silver for fake paper fiat? Or just hang on and let it enter the new financial system that is coming? My senses are saying don't sell. Hold at all costs. Even if it hits 20k. If it hits 20k, we got bigger problems and our fiat won't be worth shit. 20k fost might mean nothing. Ya know? I hope the good guys have a plan also for people that are holding cash. We can't be given pennies on out hard earned dollars. It's all so much to consider.
Honestly, I don't think it'll matter much. People have this idea that we're gonna instantly transform our economic system from fiat to non fiat overnight. That's actually very unlikely.
For example, when we went from gold backed to fiat, it wasn't an instant transition. It took several years to fully implement, retire old money (Since money printed before we were taken off the gold standard could still technically be turned in and exchanged for silver/gold legally), etc. etc.
It's a process, and it won't be instant. Honestly, I don't think people will lose as much money as some seem to think. Most "money" isn't actually money. It's just "value". For example, at any given time there's roughly 2.26 Trillion "dollars" in circulation both physically and digitally. There's 25 Trillion dollars worth of residential real estate (single family homes) in the USA. Our combined stock markets (NASDAQ and NYSE) are worth something like 26 Trillion.
There's more "dollars" in terms of value of assets, than actual dollars in existence. So even if we enter slight deflation because the dollar supply drops (meaning a dollar goes further), it won't be an overnight thing. It'll be a gradual process over, probably ten or so years, so as to not shock the various markets, vendors, businesses, etc. that make up our economy.
Imagine you're a small business, and you have a contractual agreement that renews annually to buy X product for a certain amount. If all of a sudden, money is more valuable, that contract means that small business has to pay 10 times more for the same product, and they're contractually obligated to do so.
Stuff like that would ruin the economy worse than having a fiat currency since it would instantly bankrupt millions of businesses.
So no, I'm not worried about the whole "fiat is gonna be worthless" argument. It will be eventually, but it's more likely than not gonna be a very gradual process done in steps to prevent massive shocks to the economy that would make things even worse than if we just stayed on fiat.
And because of the fact it's gonna be gradual, that gives people plenty of chances to make use of that "fiat". Cash out high, wait until the stock market completely tanks, buy a bunch of index funds for pennies on the dollar, or buy real estate, heck, buy or start your own business.
A smart person isn't gonna hold onto all their cash that comes from cashing out when prices go crazy, they're gonna take advantage of the fact everything other asset class is crashing as well, and translate their silver into something that will produce even more wealth/income for them in the post cabal world.
Imagine buying something like, Microsoft stock for a $10 a share or something like that. It probably won't jump back up to it's current $400+ price any time soon, but even if it only recovers to $100 a share in a few years, you 10x-d your money on a single investment.
This is how JFK's dad got super wealthy, sold all his assets at the right time, went into the great depression with millions of dollars in cash, and then bought up assets dirt cheap. By the time things had recovered, he was the equivalent of a modern day billionaire (If I remember right he went from having an inflation adjusted net worth of something like $20 Million to $4 Billion over the course of about 7 years)
Long winded I know, but people think this stuff is gonna happen overnight, when realistically, it's gonna take probably a decade to see the new system fully implemented, and while yes, we'll probably see some deflation during that period, the fiat money you have is more or less gonna be treated the same as the new gold and silver backed currency for all intents and purposes.
Really and truly, the only people who'll come out like bandits, are the ones who manage to pull a kennedy and translate their precious metal holdings into other assets during the transition period.
Right now you could buy 1 and 1/8 a gallon of gas for two pre 1966 90 percent silver dimes. About 4.5 grams of silver. Or twenty cents. When was the last time gas was 20 cents? About 1942.
Ayup, Got 1 oz rounds and a few 5 oz and 10 oz bars. I figure they will give me your fractional or 90% in change, however, Premiums on 90% were high when I stacked, much better rates now. Can find 90% @ or near the spot price. Coinhuskers has worn 25 cents 90% For Kitco Ask at -25 cents below spot Kitco ASk, he is sold out of other 90% currently, but last Friday had at 25 cents over spot. 50 cents, 25 cents, 10 cents.
He has a storefront but sells a lot via YouTube. I bought my 5 oz and 10 oz from him and he shipped fast, this were 3 separate orders, also double-boxed them along with them being wrapped well.
Why would anyone who’s been stockpiling “sell” at $FRN 1000-5000 unless they needed to pay off debts in FRNs?
At that point, it’s obvious the FRN is free falling into well deserved oblivion, and the price of an ounce of silver will actually end up being closer to $1, since that’s what the dollar is, constitutionally!.
Anyone who wanted to stick with FRNs or needs payment in FRNs will get stuck with some terrible payoffs.
What should actually start happening at some point is a dual economy reversion to people paying for lunches with a silver dime, while bankers receive $10,000 FRN payoffs from 2-8oz of conversions.
Less people chasing FRNs means the value will ”go down” more, which means silver will “go up” more, but this also means that we are fundamentally validating assets in terms of fiat, when we should be valuating assets in terms of assets.
$FRN 800-1200 is probably a reasonable baseline, but before the FRN goes hyperinflationary.
We should start pushing a delineation between the $USD and $FRN to help drive awareness in peoples’ minds.
To be specific, paying off the last three months rent in advance with a nice letter to the property owner. I also pay my rent early, sometimes almost a month. I want my 1,995 deposit back gladly. Once I have that, then I email the property owner about how his scumbag management company lies. The owners are getting fed up with property management, but started using their own repair contacts some of the time.
Another portion will immediately pay for my almost 10K dental implant, which has no rush, its at 0% APR for 15 months.
My goal is to move to my wife's country, but she can't live there yet. So after moving and making sure we like it I can pay the rent ahead, and utilities ahead, then she can send me her portion of the bills towards living abroad.
I owe SSA for overpayment for last year, and a little this year so far, if I quit work (Just sent notice) and I pay them now for last year, and can pay them the quitting now overage, my SS will start up again in January (Even if there's some lag in processing) If I don't pay then they will resume paying my SS in the middle of next year, but take it back for 10 or 11 months if I quit now, or 18 months if I work to end of this year.
Salary cap goes away next year
Half my stack is from FRN in the bank, and half at 0% APR spread across multiple cards. Welcome bonuses made up for CC fees, typically 4% or more. So all this 0 APR , has been paid off.
APMEX is slightly pricey, but if you get their CC they give you their 4% CC fee back in future purchase points. Welcome Bonus for me was 250 and you had to spend 2k within xxx months, that more than makes up for them being pricey. Premiums on gold are a lot better than on silver., buy the sale, buy the dip. Even if you only do that and buy nothing else, you are a bit ahead of the game.
I also need to have an emergency fund (Not in the bank) for while living abroad. I started stacking as wealth preservation (Not that my modest stack could be classified as wealthy) and taking the inflation out of leveraging my credit scores with the welcoming bonus and 0 APR
My wife makes a lot more money than I, and I funded 80% half our house in her country, she is the absolute worse at managing money, she plays millionaire for a month when she goes back home. I consider the house helping my wife provide for herself.
I have no children of my own, and my few relatives are full libtards, or take everything you can get from Sugar Daddy Uncle Sam, they do work though...
My goal is to go broke on the exact day I pass away. The vast majority of people end up having the Nursing home drain their wealth slowly, or the Hospitals draining you fast if you are there more than a day, or even outpatient surgery.
I expect when all is said and done, silver prices will stabilize at somewhere near the 18:1 ratio. Probably closer to 15:1 or 14:1 due to its industrial versatility. That would put it in the 200s an oz atm.
Makes sense to me... I quickly grew tired of the YouTube Seasawers. 5,000 an Oz! lolz , 14 dollars and oz! lolz
If all this new economic system that has been hinted about, the sudden worldwide need of physical coins will have to be balanced against toting it around. A kilo of gold is about $72,060 so it probably would not be a hassle to bring 4 or so to buy a home. However a kilo of silver might be a pain in the butt at the grocery store.
FYI Scottsdale has these awesome 100oz Stackers that are beautifully CNC machined. They save a lot of room in your vault if you're a serious stacker...
After a while you just go for weight... Make sure your shelves are strong enough and you may want to wear steel toes so you don't inadvertently lose a foot...😁😁😁
Yeah, I'm pausing stacking and will focus on paying bills ahead. I had a chunk of money and wanted to make it safe, then I leveraged my credit to double my stack. Got welcome bonuses, AND 0 APR. So my yellow is at a modest profit, so I'll sell some to get debt-free. I owe SSA 11,900, and above 8K on dental (Which is also 0 APR. I love using CC at 0 APR and welcome bonuses.
I recommend APMEX Bullion card, all the sellers charge CC fees, but the Bullion card gives you their 4% fee as cash back for future purchases. They gave me a 250 Welcome bonus as well. So if you got the same deal and gold were at 2500 You would meet the requirement to get the 250 Welcome bonus 100 Cash Back and 0 APR for a year. APMEX is not the cheapest, but that deal I example is well below spot.
For Silver, I got 3 or 4 new customer deals from online big dealers. Coinhuskers on Youtube (Has a storefront in the mid n west) Runs pretty good deals, I bought my only silver bars, 5 oz and 10 oz, they are pretty nice, and probably secondary
Currently, he has APMEX gold bars at 10 over spot, and he uses Kitco spot which is a lower spot than most dealers. I bought my 5 oz and 10 oz bars at 25 cents over the spot price .
Yeah, I'm paused now too, as I've "hit my number" and then some on PM. I started a lot earlier than many during the Obongo years. I still keep an eye on the markets, if for nothing else than to gauge how ridiculous inflation has gotten...
I started in 1986 right after college. My grandpa used to gives us rounds as kids for things like Christmas, birthdays, Easter, Halloween and even report cards. That instilled the value of metals into me at an early age. I have continued the tradition with my kids and grandkids. They have all gotten silver mostly but also a bit of gold, palladium and platinum coins.
Yeah we used to get them too... but silver was worth so little for so long that the whole, "gonna be worth something some day" kinda faded into obscurity until recently.
I chuckle at the time when people thought bs like beanie babies were going to be worth something someday...lol - Like uh .... they were worth the most right before you were suckered into buying them 😂😂😂 At least longerberger baskets have some utility to them ... Right ladies? 😁
I had a personal reset moving abroad then having to move back to USA and start over. I'm almost 66, I'm not trying to pile up, just keep a decent safety buffer. I have several things I want to do for small income streams, both are cheap to fund, and have some good potential