it's long but worth the listen
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There is no "probability" associated with some specific fact being true or not. It is a single event (one or zero). The concept of probability applies only to a population of events. Best to look for certainty and not get lost in a subjective fog of "probability," which would be meaningless.
Yeah, I gotcha. I can't argue with that. But, I think you know what I mean.
Let me re-phrase in "crayon"..........how do we verify influencer-intel when they're supposedly the only ones who have it?
Props for splitting hairs, though 👍 It's what we do.
I've been an engineer for 50 years. Misuse of the term drives me nuts. I always want to ask "What's the number? How do you calculate it?"
But, to your question, I'm afraid the answer is what has always been the motto of this page: Wait and see. No harm in repeating "intel" or rumor---for what it may be worth. I just get my teeth on edge when I see the logical fallacy of "possibly" => "probably" => "certainly" running riot here.