So, would there be a govt program called C.A.L.M., too?

The Synthetic Theater Operations Research Model (STORM) is the primary campaign analysis tool used by the Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, Assessment Division (OPNAV N81) and other Department of Defense organizations to aid in providing analysis to top-level officials on force structures, operational concepts, and military capabilities. This thesis describes how STORM works, analyzes the variability associated with many replications, and evaluates the trade-off between the expected number of replications and the precision and probability of coverage of confidence intervals. The results of this research provide OPNAV 81 with the ability to capitalize on STORM’s full potential on a time-line conducive to its high-paced environment. The distribution of outcomes is examined via standard statistical techniques for multiple metrics. All metrics appear to have sufficient variability, which is critical in modeling the combat environment. The trade-off for confidence intervals between the expected number of replications, precision, and the probability of coverage is very important. If a more precise solution and a higher probability of coverage are required, more replications are generally needed. This relationship is explored and a framework is provided to conduct this analysis on simulation output data.

https://archive.org/details/capturingfullpot1094544000

Wow.

Consequently, STORM routinely creates gigabytes of output from a single replication. When multiple replications are required, even more data is generated. Moreover, this output is typically not in a form that can immediately be used for analysis. Thus, some type of post-processing, e.g., filtering and transformation, is required to produce a reduced set of data that is suitable for subsequent analysis.

Sometimes the most difficult aspect of gaining insights from a high-dimensional set of output is ‘putting it all together’ to form a coherent narrative that describes:

(1) which major entities and platforms initiated key actions,

(2) what happened or failed to happen,

(3) when and where key combat events occurred, and, probably the most difficult to ascertain,

(4) why major events or outcomes occurred or didn’t occur.

Of the gigabytes of output that STORM produces, a ‘feature extraction’ process is first needed to determine the functions of the data that are most relevant and meaningful to the campaign analyst. Once key data is acquired from the raw data stream, we experiment with new methods for visualization and analysis of the simulation output data. This process supports the verification and validation process in that it can identify both ‘bugs’ in simulation code as well as unintended defects in the many combat plans that must be created by analysts as part of the scenario development process.

RE: https://informs-sim.org/wsc14papers/includes/files/440.pdf

DECLAS 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻

You may enjoy this little tidbit from JANES International Defense Review from 1991, a defense contractor trade magazine - unveiling the hardware side to STORM - an "invisible" UFO, consisting of thousands (16,000+) of sensors (not just cameras) and LED/LCD "skin" that projects the background onto the opposite sides of the craft...all the while using a 1.6ghz signal that's been present any time a UAP has been observed. It functions as a data hub for the BEAST system, (Battle Engagement Area Simulation Tracker)...1991 people (!!!) I'm sure this tech is WAY more advanced now... and STORM is most likely receiving data from this type of hardware in cases where an actual conflict is happening. I don't think that STORM is merely for "theoretical" gaming out of possible scenarios alone...

RE: JANES

If you made it this far, here's a modern case study and video from JANES

Can you give us any examples of Thales defence clouds currently in operation? Nexium Defense Cloud (interesting name...fkers), our modular infrastructure solution that is adapted to the security and resilience needs of the defence sector, is now being integrated into accredited systems at ‘secret’ levels and beyond in France and within NATO.

Thank you for sharing.

Similar concept exist in the field of engineering and geosciences to determine possible outcomes based on data that then is modeled.

this hurts my brain. can it be dummied down for a 5th grader ?

Facinating and very nerdy, Yes please. Can we have some more?