So which way will Xi be pushed? Will he come to the negotiating table or will this become a kinetic war with Taiwan being the first target since they’ve war gamed that area so much?
Most analysts say China can only make a move in April or October due to sea conditions.
If China starts withering economically, they can pass off a lot of that pain to the rest of the world by attacking Taiwan, who produces the vast vast majority of high-end chips in the world.
I've read that one US strategy on the table if China tries to take Taiwan will be for the United States to bomb those chipmaking factories so that they don't fall into the hands of (exclusively) China.
It is incredibly difficult and expensive to build one of those factories.
China: Only October and April have sea conditions calm enough for China to make a move to take Taiwan. And at the same time, because of these new tariffs against them, they will never again be more 'economically secure' than they are right now.Remember: military power is predicated (depends) on economic power. Period. From now on it's all downhill for the CCP and their economy. If they're going to make a move on Taiwan, they have to do it now (April), or maybe this October, or never. But every day that goes by, they will become weaker.
Keep in mind friends, the dangerous animal is cornered. That's when it's the most dangerous.
China can't take Taiwan. Do you think a country that builds the most advanced chips in the world doesn't also have extremely advanced weapons?
There's a big difference between "can't" and "won't try."
The United States arguably has the most sophisticated weapons in the world, but NOT the most sophisticated chip tech.
They have the best chipmaking tech.
We have (arguably) the best weapons tech.
While they go hand-in-hand, it's not a zero sum game.
Ultimately, the reason I think China might be stupid and desperate enough to TRY to take Taiwan is because Trump said on the topic: 'that's coming, just watch.'
Q: 'Has POTUS ever made a statement that didn't turn out to be true?'
If China attacks Taiwan, and we blow up the chipmaking factories to keep them out of China's hands, the world is going to suffer a bit technologically for a while, but THEN it will be the United States that ultimately comes out on top as the world's best chipmaker.
I could go on and on, but based on the above reasons I outlined, I think it's likely they might be stupid and desperate enough to try.
The United States will ultimately benefit the most while bringing about the CCP's ruin.
The book China the rising power 2009. Predicted war with China by 2025. The problems she identified as to china's major problems are almost all internal. First China will vacate their colonial belts and roads initiative which American consumers finance through purchase of Chinese goods. As China pulls back we will be exposed to the big lie about Chinese population numbers. China has an aging work force, big issues from the former one child policy, dissatisfaction at tje elite level with communist rulership, among many things are china's declining catalyst. Of course China wants to lay it all on the tarriffs. China has been tearing down entire cities for the past 7 years. We have not been told everything about China by a stretch.
Living in Asia for nearly 2 decades has shown me that the average Chinese looks down upon all other cultures, especially those in the West and believes they should be subservient. In many ways, they make Aryans look like boyscouts. Financial power over others is the driving force behind the average Chinese. You can thank 50-60 years of little to no religion offering morality for this. Should these tariffs continue, and I hope they do, Xi will eventually be forced from power and it won't be subtle.
Correct.
But the Chinese merchant class suffering so badly is a direct internal threat to the CCP's power.
The average Chinese human being is NOT our enemy.
How long till the riots start? Can you already hear how cruel we are?
So which way will Xi be pushed? Will he come to the negotiating table or will this become a kinetic war with Taiwan being the first target since they’ve war gamed that area so much?
That's the million dollar question.
Most analysts say China can only make a move in April or October due to sea conditions.
If China starts withering economically, they can pass off a lot of that pain to the rest of the world by attacking Taiwan, who produces the vast vast majority of high-end chips in the world.
I've read that one US strategy on the table if China tries to take Taiwan will be for the United States to bomb those chipmaking factories so that they don't fall into the hands of (exclusively) China.
It is incredibly difficult and expensive to build one of those factories.
🤔 Can their economy last until October?
Exactly u/BooniesRedneck
I wrote this three days ago:
China can't take Taiwan. Do you think a country that builds the most advanced chips in the world doesn't also have extremely advanced weapons?
Grok says you’re wrong. Also, quantity over quality. Taiwan has some integration issues between their tech and US tech.
There's a big difference between "can't" and "won't try."
The United States arguably has the most sophisticated weapons in the world, but NOT the most sophisticated chip tech.
While they go hand-in-hand, it's not a zero sum game.
Ultimately, the reason I think China might be stupid and desperate enough to TRY to take Taiwan is because Trump said on the topic: 'that's coming, just watch.'
Q: 'Has POTUS ever made a statement that didn't turn out to be true?'
If China attacks Taiwan, and we blow up the chipmaking factories to keep them out of China's hands, the world is going to suffer a bit technologically for a while, but THEN it will be the United States that ultimately comes out on top as the world's best chipmaker.
I could go on and on, but based on the above reasons I outlined, I think it's likely they might be stupid and desperate enough to try.
The United States will ultimately benefit the most while bringing about the CCP's ruin.
The book China the rising power 2009. Predicted war with China by 2025. The problems she identified as to china's major problems are almost all internal. First China will vacate their colonial belts and roads initiative which American consumers finance through purchase of Chinese goods. As China pulls back we will be exposed to the big lie about Chinese population numbers. China has an aging work force, big issues from the former one child policy, dissatisfaction at tje elite level with communist rulership, among many things are china's declining catalyst. Of course China wants to lay it all on the tarriffs. China has been tearing down entire cities for the past 7 years. We have not been told everything about China by a stretch.
They, the CCP, cannot Risk a Kinetic War with Taiwan, especially now, or they could become The Northeast Taiwan Province....
Living in Asia for nearly 2 decades has shown me that the average Chinese looks down upon all other cultures, especially those in the West and believes they should be subservient. In many ways, they make Aryans look like boyscouts. Financial power over others is the driving force behind the average Chinese. You can thank 50-60 years of little to no religion offering morality for this. Should these tariffs continue, and I hope they do, Xi will eventually be forced from power and it won't be subtle.
I agree.
As it was to the last National Government. (now in Taiwan)