That theory only works as long as the 80+ Million Iranian civilians NOT part of the tyrannical Iranian govt remain cowed with fear of reprisals from the govt. This is more a narrative war than anything else. Iran's drone production facilities have been decimated or outright destroyed, so have 90+% of it's missile launching capabilities.
Iran's only tue negotiating power lies in the UN's and EU's belief that it supremely holds its grip over the Strait of Hormuz. We can continue bombing the shit out of the IRGC's missile and drone capacities until their effectiveness is down to >1% without ever putting "large number" troop acapcotoes anywhere inside IRGC held territory.
Another issue with thae thought of regional Iranian hegemony over the Persian Gulf is the graphic used to denote Iranian vs US/Israeli strikes. We've struck over 5000 targets, at will, in just the last 3 weeks, with the only signs of slowing down due to the fact that Iran's capacity for reprisal strikes has diminished immensely due to those strikes' effectiveness. We have so many satellites in position over that country that we don't necessarily need fixed radar placements to know when or where any of their missiles launch from and where or when they may strike. IRGC elements are relying on the weak position of flawed thinking that 1) we can't open up the Strait whenever we want to, 2) that we can't continue targeting whatever systems they may have left, 3) that the EU countries won't do anything to strengthen themselves, 4) that the IRGC has an inexhaustible supply of leaders that can actually make decisions from a national leadership standpoint, 5) that because of #'s 1-4, Trump's negotiating position is truly weakened.
All it takes is a coalition of nations in the UN to recognize that the IRGC is now effectively dead for the world to officially recognize this, which means Russia and China, for the forced removal of the IRGC/Iranian govt from any negotiations and removal from the international stage. Once that happens, the whole argument of Iranian regional hegemony evaporates.
The fact that these people are even talking about it is proof that the Iranian regime is kaput. Closing down the Strait of Hormuz works both ways. It hurts the whole region, but it hurts Iran most of all since we control the air and seas around Iran. We have aerial superiority and can do ert or turn away any flights we choose, at the time of our choosing, and can do it indefinitely. These posts are only considering U.S. offensive capabilities without factoring in that there haven't been any flights into Iran for weeks now. They're effectively blockaded. No help is coming for that govt. If they even attempt to move any assets they immediately becomes targets of opportunity for destruction.
The world is operating from the flawed belief that the U.S. arsenal is depleted when no one outside a few people in the Pentagon actually know exactly what we have. All these think tanks believe they know, but they don't know for sure. It's a narrative game based on false assumptions using flawed and outdated logic. We can effectively remove Iran from the world stage and turn it into another hermit kingdom if need be. And if they think Trump won't possibly do that, they're mistaken because he's already making deals with their allies to supply U.S. controlled oil and other critical resources without Iran's permission. With enough pressure out on Russia and China, they themselves with force the removal of the Iranian Govt and IRGC. Anyone thinking Russia and China won't do that clearly don't know just how bad either country is hurting for resources, especially China.
It's all just the whimpering moans of a dying paradigm struggling to cling to life at this point. Trump doesn't want the Iranian People to suffer, but that doesn't mean that he'll just capitulate to whatever insane demands of whoever is left in the Iranian Govt. They've effectively been abandoned by the world and only have any negotiating power because the world is still operating on false logic laid out almost a century ago by a mechanism of control that is clearly dying.
No understanding of Accelerated Warfare. There’s no where to hide. The target set is finite. The bombs and missiles are not. We even have low collateral damage weapons to take out checkpoints and individuals. Even if you are a low level functionary, the snitches will put a target on your back. Ginsu incoming.
So the United States has already suffered a catastrophic military defeat.
So we have:
Destroyed their nuclear ambitions and capabilities.
Ballistic missile production infrastructure destroyed.
UAV/drone production facilities destroyed.
Their Navy is sitting on the bottom of the ocean.
Multiple logistics and supply lines destroyed.
Financial sanctions making so they cannot even pay their people
Majorly disrupted cyber and intelligence
Completely isolated with no one on their side (mostly their own fault for panic firing all over the place)
Supreme leader killed
Replacement supreme leader killed
Replacement replacement supreme leader killed
80% of IRGC senior command killed
40% of IRGC mid level commanders and senior proxy leaders killed or captured
A pissed off local population that hates the IRGC, and are praising President Trump for what he is doing.
How they can characterize that as the United States suffering a catastrophic military defeat, is wild to me. Of the things listed above, not all of them are 100% done, but for most they are over 50% complete now. It's been done easily, and President Trump is not even close to unleashing the full might of the US Military, because he has compassion for it's civilian population, so we are doing this with "both hands tied behind our backs", and have still accomplished all this in less than a single month! If this is "catastrophic military defeat" what the hell does victory look like?
I trust PDJT but the one month “pause” based on the Gaza plan is concerning. IMO we should not drag this out, or give them time to regroup but finish the job with final unquestionable total disarmament and total regime collapse. Leave no doubt then leave.
Being that this hogwash is coming from anusar farooqui and rosemary kelanic, I'll still take team Trump for the win.....
That theory only works as long as the 80+ Million Iranian civilians NOT part of the tyrannical Iranian govt remain cowed with fear of reprisals from the govt. This is more a narrative war than anything else. Iran's drone production facilities have been decimated or outright destroyed, so have 90+% of it's missile launching capabilities.
Iran's only tue negotiating power lies in the UN's and EU's belief that it supremely holds its grip over the Strait of Hormuz. We can continue bombing the shit out of the IRGC's missile and drone capacities until their effectiveness is down to >1% without ever putting "large number" troop acapcotoes anywhere inside IRGC held territory.
Another issue with thae thought of regional Iranian hegemony over the Persian Gulf is the graphic used to denote Iranian vs US/Israeli strikes. We've struck over 5000 targets, at will, in just the last 3 weeks, with the only signs of slowing down due to the fact that Iran's capacity for reprisal strikes has diminished immensely due to those strikes' effectiveness. We have so many satellites in position over that country that we don't necessarily need fixed radar placements to know when or where any of their missiles launch from and where or when they may strike. IRGC elements are relying on the weak position of flawed thinking that 1) we can't open up the Strait whenever we want to, 2) that we can't continue targeting whatever systems they may have left, 3) that the EU countries won't do anything to strengthen themselves, 4) that the IRGC has an inexhaustible supply of leaders that can actually make decisions from a national leadership standpoint, 5) that because of #'s 1-4, Trump's negotiating position is truly weakened.
All it takes is a coalition of nations in the UN to recognize that the IRGC is now effectively dead for the world to officially recognize this, which means Russia and China, for the forced removal of the IRGC/Iranian govt from any negotiations and removal from the international stage. Once that happens, the whole argument of Iranian regional hegemony evaporates.
The fact that these people are even talking about it is proof that the Iranian regime is kaput. Closing down the Strait of Hormuz works both ways. It hurts the whole region, but it hurts Iran most of all since we control the air and seas around Iran. We have aerial superiority and can do ert or turn away any flights we choose, at the time of our choosing, and can do it indefinitely. These posts are only considering U.S. offensive capabilities without factoring in that there haven't been any flights into Iran for weeks now. They're effectively blockaded. No help is coming for that govt. If they even attempt to move any assets they immediately becomes targets of opportunity for destruction.
The world is operating from the flawed belief that the U.S. arsenal is depleted when no one outside a few people in the Pentagon actually know exactly what we have. All these think tanks believe they know, but they don't know for sure. It's a narrative game based on false assumptions using flawed and outdated logic. We can effectively remove Iran from the world stage and turn it into another hermit kingdom if need be. And if they think Trump won't possibly do that, they're mistaken because he's already making deals with their allies to supply U.S. controlled oil and other critical resources without Iran's permission. With enough pressure out on Russia and China, they themselves with force the removal of the Iranian Govt and IRGC. Anyone thinking Russia and China won't do that clearly don't know just how bad either country is hurting for resources, especially China.
It's all just the whimpering moans of a dying paradigm struggling to cling to life at this point. Trump doesn't want the Iranian People to suffer, but that doesn't mean that he'll just capitulate to whatever insane demands of whoever is left in the Iranian Govt. They've effectively been abandoned by the world and only have any negotiating power because the world is still operating on false logic laid out almost a century ago by a mechanism of control that is clearly dying.
No understanding of Accelerated Warfare. There’s no where to hide. The target set is finite. The bombs and missiles are not. We even have low collateral damage weapons to take out checkpoints and individuals. Even if you are a low level functionary, the snitches will put a target on your back. Ginsu incoming.
What a load of crap.
Ai post.
Disregarded.
Also, Ukraine has occupied half of Russia no doubt.
u/#topkek
I love this Liberal and Deep State argument against the Iran war.
The flaw is in thinking that the U.S. and Israel are in it alone.
Let’s examine the facts: 1.We already won. 2… 3… 4… (etc)
So we have:
How they can characterize that as the United States suffering a catastrophic military defeat, is wild to me. Of the things listed above, not all of them are 100% done, but for most they are over 50% complete now. It's been done easily, and President Trump is not even close to unleashing the full might of the US Military, because he has compassion for it's civilian population, so we are doing this with "both hands tied behind our backs", and have still accomplished all this in less than a single month! If this is "catastrophic military defeat" what the hell does victory look like?
I trust PDJT but the one month “pause” based on the Gaza plan is concerning. IMO we should not drag this out, or give them time to regroup but finish the job with final unquestionable total disarmament and total regime collapse. Leave no doubt then leave.
pause is only till Marines are ready to take Kharg Island. Classic Trump to make a shiny mouse till too late.