I know some people with an Iranian fatwa on them. If they go back to Iran they will be arrested and killed - especially those that are Christian. I know one Iranian couple that became Christians, and when they were baptized, the congregation was given strict instructions not to post any pics of them on social media as it could endanger their family still in Iran - some of them also Christian. Most of the Iranians I know are actively involved in Iranian diaspora movements to support the revolution despite the risks. It is that important to them and they understand that they need to seize this moment.
There are a couple of Russian people I know where things are similar. It is a crime in Russia to speak against Putin or the war. They are speaking the truth about what is happening inside Russia and the truth about the real state of the war - what is not being told officially to the Russian people. The situation in Russia is a far cry from the white prosperous utopia that Russian propaganda promotes in the West, especially in conservative circles. As long as Putin is in control, these people will never be able to return to Russia. They could end up thrown out of a window or disappeared. Random car explosions is another favorite method of silencing. But, even pro-Putin Russians within the country and oligarchs are starting to ask questions going on 5 years of war, the tanked economy, the control crackdowns, and increased censorship. Discontent is rising.
I also know people that managed to get out of China while they still could. Lately it has gotten much harder to get out of the country, especially since the beginning of the year. The CCP is confiscating passports. Not just of officials, which they started doing last year, but also regular ordinary citizens. Anyone that works for any kind of SOE or government job have had their passports taken - for safe keeping. To travel outside of the country they have to apply for permission to travel. They have to submit all kinds of intrusive documents in advance to get their passport back. To add to the difficulty, if the person given the passport ends up not coming back to China, the one that gave the approval will be held responsible. So what do you think the odds are of the bulk of those applications to travel being approved?
One of the hallmarks of failing authoritarian regimes is increased crackdowns on the freedoms of their citizens. When things are failing and leadership is afraid of losing control, the pressure is increased and life becomes more draconian and unbearable. We are seeing this unfold in China, Iran, and Russia.
Excellent info. I think Russia will bounce back after the war. I think it will be over before the midterms.
China has been papering over a financial collapse for a long time. The tariffs and this oil shock has not helped. Trump wants to prevent the 2027 war for Taiwan or at least win it quickly. The CCP sees a big pile of gold on that island. Trump is asking for an additional $500B to accelerate the B-21, F-47 and hypersonic weapons build out. Just in case and as a deterrent.
Agree on your assessment of Taiwan. The scary part is that moving on Taiwan may be the only card Xi may have left to try to maintain his shaky legitimacy and power. War is sometimes used when authoritarian regimes have nothing else. Not a good move given the track record of failed Xi projects - not to mention China's tofu-dreg military, also a project of Xi. 100% failure rate at this point of every project and policy decision Xi has made since he came to power. Just the fact that Taiwan exists and is a functioning democratic market driven country of mostly Chinese people, is a total slap in the face to the CCP and especially Xi. One of the CCP's main talking points to justify Communist rule is that Chinese people are not compatible with democratic governance. Taiwan flies in the face of that claim and shreds the argument to pieces.
Russia however, that may be an economic crap shoot the longer Putin insists on dragging out his military operation. He has almost exhausted Russia's sovereign wealth fund to continue financing the military. Estimates are that it will be drained before the end of the year.
Almost a million Russian soldiers have either been killed or injured so far and the numbers of recent casualties in the last few months are staggering. Putin has tapped out manpower from the outlying, mostly ethnic, areas of the country and is now draining men from the heart of the country - Moscow, St Petersburg, and mostly ethnic Russian cities. The first couple years of the war, those populations of Russians were not affected as much as was the rest of the country, so the main base didn't really see the cost. That has changed. The war is now hitting Russians where they live.
All of these losses are men in their productive working years that will no longer be there to build Russian families and rebuild the country. There was already a demographic crisis of working age Russian men before the war even started. Between the battlefield losses and the brain drain of skilled and professional men that fled the country, Russia will have problems getting back on its feet in a non-military civilian economy. After 5 years, some of those that fled will not be returning.
Regular commercial business have been collapsing the last couple of years with little to no support from Moscow because of the switched focus to a wartime economic system. Interest rates are too high to make any business sense. Factories either reduce hours and production, or they simply close down. Even some of the military industries are having issues. Underemployment and unemployment are becoming serious issues along with inflation.
Ukraine's drone tech has recently changed the face of this war - and not in Russia's favor. Putin has no answer other than throw more soldiers into the drone kill zone. This is primarily focused in the southern parts of the country, but Ukraine is rapidly expanding. Ukraine has been slaughtering them using drones and their tech is getting so good that operators don't even need to be on the battlefront. They can operate some of these newer drones from behind a desk somewhere safe. The Russian military is not very good at real time innovation and adaptation. Not to mention that Russia's military, like China, has a huge corruption problem. It's systemic corruption especially among the officers and commanders that ultimately impacts the soldiers at the front. Ukraine is actually starting to reclaim territory that has been stalemated for some time. We can only wait to see if the Russians can counter Ukraine's recent change in tactics and equipment.
Putin is so desperate for money that he is tapping the oligarchs for "donations" and they are not happy about it. That wasn't the deal. They actually approached Putin for government bailouts because even they are sinking with the ship. Putin's unspoken contract with the Russian people and the oligarchs is starting to fail. The last year especially has seen things really deteriorate in Moscow and St Petersburg. Those cities have always been the base of the country and when they start showing serious cracks, things are getting bad. Putin can't afford to lose the approval of his base.
There is a point where things can go so far that the situation cannot be recovered. Russia is sadly approaching that point. They are not there yet, but the clock is ticking. I think Putin's goose is almost cooked. He either makes a peace deal and ends the war, basically admitting defeat and losing his legitimacy, or he continues to drive the country off the cliff. He spends a lot of time these days operating from within his bunkers. Is he worried about the Ukrainians, or is he worried about his own people? I think it's both.
I have been saying now for decades that China was either going to implode or explode. Meaning that the latter would be used to avoid the former. The Chinese are way underestimating our capabilities. We haven’t even used our cool stuff and look how quickly Iran went down. I call it Accelerated Warfare.
Thanks for the quality update on Russia. That reinforces my belief that the war will be over before the midterms.
Outstanding! My best source had to be extracted when the regime put a hit out on her.
I know some people with an Iranian fatwa on them. If they go back to Iran they will be arrested and killed - especially those that are Christian. I know one Iranian couple that became Christians, and when they were baptized, the congregation was given strict instructions not to post any pics of them on social media as it could endanger their family still in Iran - some of them also Christian. Most of the Iranians I know are actively involved in Iranian diaspora movements to support the revolution despite the risks. It is that important to them and they understand that they need to seize this moment.
There are a couple of Russian people I know where things are similar. It is a crime in Russia to speak against Putin or the war. They are speaking the truth about what is happening inside Russia and the truth about the real state of the war - what is not being told officially to the Russian people. The situation in Russia is a far cry from the white prosperous utopia that Russian propaganda promotes in the West, especially in conservative circles. As long as Putin is in control, these people will never be able to return to Russia. They could end up thrown out of a window or disappeared. Random car explosions is another favorite method of silencing. But, even pro-Putin Russians within the country and oligarchs are starting to ask questions going on 5 years of war, the tanked economy, the control crackdowns, and increased censorship. Discontent is rising.
I also know people that managed to get out of China while they still could. Lately it has gotten much harder to get out of the country, especially since the beginning of the year. The CCP is confiscating passports. Not just of officials, which they started doing last year, but also regular ordinary citizens. Anyone that works for any kind of SOE or government job have had their passports taken - for safe keeping. To travel outside of the country they have to apply for permission to travel. They have to submit all kinds of intrusive documents in advance to get their passport back. To add to the difficulty, if the person given the passport ends up not coming back to China, the one that gave the approval will be held responsible. So what do you think the odds are of the bulk of those applications to travel being approved?
One of the hallmarks of failing authoritarian regimes is increased crackdowns on the freedoms of their citizens. When things are failing and leadership is afraid of losing control, the pressure is increased and life becomes more draconian and unbearable. We are seeing this unfold in China, Iran, and Russia.
Excellent info. I think Russia will bounce back after the war. I think it will be over before the midterms.
China has been papering over a financial collapse for a long time. The tariffs and this oil shock has not helped. Trump wants to prevent the 2027 war for Taiwan or at least win it quickly. The CCP sees a big pile of gold on that island. Trump is asking for an additional $500B to accelerate the B-21, F-47 and hypersonic weapons build out. Just in case and as a deterrent.
Lots of pieces are in play.
Agree on your assessment of Taiwan. The scary part is that moving on Taiwan may be the only card Xi may have left to try to maintain his shaky legitimacy and power. War is sometimes used when authoritarian regimes have nothing else. Not a good move given the track record of failed Xi projects - not to mention China's tofu-dreg military, also a project of Xi. 100% failure rate at this point of every project and policy decision Xi has made since he came to power. Just the fact that Taiwan exists and is a functioning democratic market driven country of mostly Chinese people, is a total slap in the face to the CCP and especially Xi. One of the CCP's main talking points to justify Communist rule is that Chinese people are not compatible with democratic governance. Taiwan flies in the face of that claim and shreds the argument to pieces.
Russia however, that may be an economic crap shoot the longer Putin insists on dragging out his military operation. He has almost exhausted Russia's sovereign wealth fund to continue financing the military. Estimates are that it will be drained before the end of the year.
Almost a million Russian soldiers have either been killed or injured so far and the numbers of recent casualties in the last few months are staggering. Putin has tapped out manpower from the outlying, mostly ethnic, areas of the country and is now draining men from the heart of the country - Moscow, St Petersburg, and mostly ethnic Russian cities. The first couple years of the war, those populations of Russians were not affected as much as was the rest of the country, so the main base didn't really see the cost. That has changed. The war is now hitting Russians where they live.
All of these losses are men in their productive working years that will no longer be there to build Russian families and rebuild the country. There was already a demographic crisis of working age Russian men before the war even started. Between the battlefield losses and the brain drain of skilled and professional men that fled the country, Russia will have problems getting back on its feet in a non-military civilian economy. After 5 years, some of those that fled will not be returning.
Regular commercial business have been collapsing the last couple of years with little to no support from Moscow because of the switched focus to a wartime economic system. Interest rates are too high to make any business sense. Factories either reduce hours and production, or they simply close down. Even some of the military industries are having issues. Underemployment and unemployment are becoming serious issues along with inflation.
Ukraine's drone tech has recently changed the face of this war - and not in Russia's favor. Putin has no answer other than throw more soldiers into the drone kill zone. This is primarily focused in the southern parts of the country, but Ukraine is rapidly expanding. Ukraine has been slaughtering them using drones and their tech is getting so good that operators don't even need to be on the battlefront. They can operate some of these newer drones from behind a desk somewhere safe. The Russian military is not very good at real time innovation and adaptation. Not to mention that Russia's military, like China, has a huge corruption problem. It's systemic corruption especially among the officers and commanders that ultimately impacts the soldiers at the front. Ukraine is actually starting to reclaim territory that has been stalemated for some time. We can only wait to see if the Russians can counter Ukraine's recent change in tactics and equipment.
Putin is so desperate for money that he is tapping the oligarchs for "donations" and they are not happy about it. That wasn't the deal. They actually approached Putin for government bailouts because even they are sinking with the ship. Putin's unspoken contract with the Russian people and the oligarchs is starting to fail. The last year especially has seen things really deteriorate in Moscow and St Petersburg. Those cities have always been the base of the country and when they start showing serious cracks, things are getting bad. Putin can't afford to lose the approval of his base.
There is a point where things can go so far that the situation cannot be recovered. Russia is sadly approaching that point. They are not there yet, but the clock is ticking. I think Putin's goose is almost cooked. He either makes a peace deal and ends the war, basically admitting defeat and losing his legitimacy, or he continues to drive the country off the cliff. He spends a lot of time these days operating from within his bunkers. Is he worried about the Ukrainians, or is he worried about his own people? I think it's both.
I have been saying now for decades that China was either going to implode or explode. Meaning that the latter would be used to avoid the former. The Chinese are way underestimating our capabilities. We haven’t even used our cool stuff and look how quickly Iran went down. I call it Accelerated Warfare.
Thanks for the quality update on Russia. That reinforces my belief that the war will be over before the midterms.