The Thucydides Trap is a political theory stating that when a rapidly rising power threatens to displace an established ruling power, the resulting structural tension often leads to a catastrophic, unintended war. It is most famously used by Xi, to describe modern U.S.-China relations, where China is the rising power and the United States is the ruling power.
The Greek Story: Athens vs. Sparta
The term was coined by American political scientist Graham Allison, who drew inspiration from the ancient Greek historian Thucydides and his account of the History of the Peloponnesian War.I n the 5th century BC, the Greek world was dominated by two mega-powers: Sparta, the established hegemon with the most formidable land army, and Athens, an emerging power experiencing a meteoric rise thanks to its booming naval empire.
As Athenian power, wealth, and influence grew aggressively, Sparta became paralyzed by anxiety that it would lose its top position. Regarding the cause of the resulting devastating 27-year war, Thucydides famously wrote:
"What made war inevitable was the growth of Athenian power and the fear which this caused in Sparta."
The Core Lessons In the classical Greek story, are that it was a lethal combination of structural shifting, unyielding pride, fear of the unknown, and a web of stubborn alliances that trapped both nations in an avoidable war.
However, modern historians and Allison emphasize that the "trap" is meant to serve as a warning rather than an absolute prophecy.
Noel S. Williams - China: There is no ‘thucydides trap’ Those Chinese are full of themselves. If they are so special, why not just stay over there, and stop sending their people over here to have babies, steal, and spy?
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2026/05/china_there_is_no_thucydides_trap.html
I agree, but, China was USA's ally against Japan, in WW2. This, Trump specifically pointed out.
There are many, many Chinese Americans. How do you tell people apart anymore? Be careful when lumping things together. The whole point of the Thucydides trap was: that it is divisive, and futile, to boot.
There are a) a ruling power, and b) a rising power. This can cause war, as it did for Sparta and Athens. No point in mixing BS racialism into the mix.
Chinese don't see themselves as 'special', and, BTW, 'Americans' are a meme, when it comes to visiting, or occupying army-bases in, other countries. The Chinese are acutely aware of the image that this projects.
Williams, Maybe AMerucans, should stay home, eh?
"I agree, but, China was USA's ally against Japan, in WW2. "
"Japanese do not eat dog."
Mama San Dog
The ally in WW2 against Japan was not the CCP/PRC, it was the ROC under Chiang Kai-shek. The ROC later retreated to Taiwan because of the Chinese civil war with the CCP. The CCP during WW2 were hiding in the mountains and it was the ROC representing the Chinese forces that fought against the Japanese. The CCP continues to take credit for a victory that was not theirs. The PRC was not formally established until 1949.
It was the ROC that was present when the Japanese surrendered in Taiwan in 1945 when the ROC took administrative control over the island. It was Chiang Kai-shek that was present for the Japanese surrender in Taiwan, not the CCP/PRC. It was also the ROC that first represented China at the UN on the Security Council until they were removed from their seat in 1971 by the UN due to objections filed by the CCP/PRC. The US basically threw Taiwan under the bus and their status has been in limbo ever since. The UN refused to allow the ROC to even retain a seat in the General Assembly. The Cairo agreement in 1943 only agreed to relinquish Japanese control over Taiwan, not specifically to return it to mainland China despite how the CCP tries to spin it. It was also never signed or ratified. It was more of a memorandum of intention than an actual treaty. Those documents are in Taiwan and not mainland China.
The implications of Xi's ‘Thucydides trap’ statement reveals a lot about Xi's mindset. His point was simply that China is rising and the US is declining. It was meant as an insult to Trump and the US delegation. That entire visit was full of these insults and power moves by Xi, obvious signals to anyone familiar with CCP optics.
I think you have completely misinterpreted the situation. You aren't listening to Trump. Why did Trump cite the aspect of the Chinese People being the allies of the USA in WW2? Because THAT is the aspect both he and Xi are focused on. Not the Cold War scenario of the CCP vs the USA.
And Xi cited the Thucydides trap specifically because it is a concept and idea created by the UK Banker elite (globalist) system: created by Allison who was a student under Kissenger, the globalist agent who began the destruction of the USA in the period of Nixon and onwards.
And Xi asked, "Can we (USA and China) escape that 'trap'? Can we move beyond the globalist system of conflict with Communism vs Democratic nations, and find a different path forward, aka 'Art of the Deal' where the principle guiding international relations is not US vs Them, but mutual respect, sovereignty and cooperation that benefits both.
Trump is shouting this message at the world. Who is listening, and who is not? Those stuck in the old world matrix cannot hear what he (and Xi, and Putin for that matter) are saying.
I respect your opinions. But, I don't happen to agree completely on several points - the tres amigos being one of them. I could see Trump and Putin working together on something - to a point. But Xi? Absolutely not.
I don't believe I have misunderstood the situation at all. Xi's statement by default is making the assumption that China is a rising power and is on par with the US - even superior. Xi truly believes his own CCP BS propaganda. He dreams of being emperor of the world and that China is unstoppable. The CCP desperately tries to convince, not only their own people, but also the rest of the world that China is stronger than they actually are in reality. China is on the decline, economically, militarily, demographically, international prestige, foreign trade and investments, etc. China has missed its window of opportunity and is now getting old before it got rich. China did not beat the middle income trap before everything started to crumble. The CCP bit the hand that fed it on the way down.
Xi has surrounded himself with loyalist sycophants that don't dare tell him the truth. Even the thin cadre lineup to greet Trump was very telling. These details may not mean much to most Westerners, but it speaks volumes in CCP strict etiquette and protocol. Loyalty supersedes competency at all levels and many cadres have simply chosen to lay flat - tang ping. Those that have tried to give Xi honest evaluation, especially in regards to Taiwan, have paid the price for their honesty. Any news perceived as negative is viewed as speaking insults against China and risks one from being purged, or at worst, disappeared along with their family. Let's also not forget that the Xi family itself has amassed a global fortune that would rival any other puppet master cabal member. Trillions of dollars - not yuan - dollars. As long as Xi is in power, the family is untouchable. Thus, Xi is looking for lifetime rule like Mao and to install a dynasty. Imperial rule of sorts.
As far as China being an ally to the US during the war, both sides are dancing around the truth here and not being completely honest, either by ignorance of the facts, or by deliberate omission of the facts for the sake of optics. The CCP has always taken credit for a war they never fought. The CCP only participated in a few behind the lines gorilla actions, but it was the KMT that engaged in the bulk of frontline fighting against the Japanese. The CCP certainly did not fight along side Americans. The CCP had virtually little invested in a war that they now proudly point to and spin stories about as though they won. While hiding in the hills, and letting the KMT take the losses, the CCP built their troop strength to fight the KMT after the Pacific war ended. The weakened KMT was forced to retreat to Taiwan. The CCP uses the war with Japan to drive anti-Japanese nationalist sentiment in the country to deflect people's anger outward towards Japan, or the US, instead of inward towards the ones actually responsible for making their lives miserable - the CCP.
Yes, the land mass of China and Chinese citizens were involved in the war, but the governmental players and the armies were different. The PRC was not officially even in existence until 1949. It was the ROC/KMT under Chiang Kai-shek that fought the Japanese and it was the ROC under Chiang that witnessed Japan's surrender in Taiwan. Along with that surrender, the ROC took over administrative control of the island of Taiwan from the Japanese. It was not until 1971 that the UN recognized the PRC/CCP as the government of mainland China. Until then it was the ROC that represented China at the UN and who also had a seat on the security council.
I may be splitting hairs here, but I believe those facts are important. Communist China is the land of lies, fakes, and facades. They don't have much of anything substantial that was not stolen and copied from someone else - mostly the US. The rest is completely made up, but they promote it as something spectacular and people believe it - China is far ahead? What a crock.
The US and China have very little that can be used as a meeting point for purposes of cooperation and positive optics. The war is one of those points to have a meeting of the minds - but under the hood, even the war is fraught with problems. Trump was trying to find common ground and not be confrontational. Xi, however, was playing a different game altogether. Those that know how to read some of those CCP black box tea leaves saw lots of subtle signals. Some of it was ridiculous, but typical MO for the CCP. Ex: Last meeting of Trump and Xi - check out the photo and look carefully at the differences in the chairs and the cushions on those chairs and how it affected each's posture and sitting. Trump was definitely getting tired of the games - part of the reason the trip was so short.
Trump didn't need this meeting with Xi - but Xi desperately needed to meet with Trump. Trump threw Xi a huge lifeline because Xi's position in the Party is not firm. There is deadly factional infighting taking place within the CCP and has been for several years now. So, only time will tell whether that lifeline Xi was thrown was a mistake or not. As far as what Trump says, I don't take Trump literally - but I do take him seriously. I care far less about what they say versus what they actually do. So let's see what happens in the next few days and weeks to actually assess what shook out from the summit.
Thanks for hearing me out.
You have just summarized the “Israel” situation perfectly as well.
Indeed.
The problem is this: Marxist-Leninism, and its various variations, was pushed and promoted by Elite wannabe rulers under the principle of divide and conquer. They supported and sponsored Mao, to give rise to a communist China.
This is the application of Satanic Marxist theory, based on Hegel's dialectic, that development comes through conflict. In Hegel's idea, all progress occurs via conflict. Thesis exists, then anti-thesis arises, conflicts with the thesis to create the synthesis. Conflict >>>> Development (progress)
This is the basis for communism, Marxism and the Woke ideology.
But, its a lie. It's the ultimate inversion of the Truth. In God's creation, all things have a complementary partner (not really an opposite) and it is cooperation between those partners centering on a common purpose, that leads to existence and development.
Type one: internal (invisible) and external (visible): Our spirit/mind has a physical vehicle, the flesh (our body). Invisible laws (the laws physics, chemistry, etc) manifest on various levels, such as atoms and molecules, which are visible tangible forms of energy. Its the cooperation between our spirit and our flesh that allows us to exist, alive, in the universe. All matter exists through the invisible laws of physics, etc, directing tangible forms of energy.
Another type of complementary partnership also exists: + and -; male and female. Men and women enter into a relationship and together form a family, giving life to a new generation. Healthy families exist on the basis of the love between a man and a woman. Atoms and molecules exist through the interaction between a positive charge nucleus (+) and negatively charged electrons (-).
The evil world always wants to frame reality as unavoidable conflict, but in God's world, harmonious cooperation is what leads to existence and development.
And Xi, here, specifically quote the satanic framework presented by the "Thucydides Trap" and asks, "Can China and the USA avoid this?"
And, everything Trump is doing is to remove the USA and the world from the satanic Marxist model, where conflict is inevitable and one side MUST lose when the other side wins, and is pushing the USA and the world towards a world of mutual cooperation, where both sides progress together and benefit from their relationship.
Which is the basis for the idea of the Art of the Deal. If Marx or the satanic elites wrote a book, it would be the Art of Conflict.
Allison's premise that the real dynamic is between rising power and ruling power is pure Hegelian dialectic. And, its a very deceitful, but potent, lie.