The president and the government never had any real decision making power. They were just a face to make the Islamic Republic appear like somewhat of a functioning nation state. They are just as corrupt and evil as the rest of the regime. In reality, power always flowed from the supreme leader and the mullahs. With the supreme leader removed, along with some of the mullahs, that left the vacuum that the IRGC was quickly able to fill because they were always part of the regime power structure from the beginning. They have the guns and control a large majority of the nationalized infrastructure that they drain for personal gain and to fund proxies and terror. The "government" controlled almost nothing. The surviving mullahs were sidelined by the IRGC and forced to approve Ali's invisible son, the cardboard ayatollah, as supreme leader to give the appearance of legitimacy. Whether he is dead or alive at this point, doesn't really matter.
The IRGC was built to protect the regime - themselves. They always have been the muscle of the regime and its operational arm in projecting power and expanding the Islamic Revolution. Without Ali there to keep them on a leash, they stepped into that vacuum left by the death of Ali and the mullahs and seized control.
The Artesh, the national army, was always deliberately underfunded and minimally supplied so they would not be a challenge to the IRGC or the regime. They have been kept out of the regime loop. As conscripts, they were also less likely to turn their guns on the Iranian people. That is why the regime uses foreign proxies and their Basij forces to suppress the people.
How many Artesh still remain at their posts is hard to say. Some deserted or defected. Very few are actually getting paid. If they can be armed, many would stand with the people. However, there are pockets of regime loyal Artesh at key posts in the country that are mixed with IRGC. The regime tries to make sure at least they are paid. But with revenues quickly crumbling, that may become harder to pull off by the regime as the blockade continues.
"The Artesh, the national army, was always deliberately underfunded and minimally supplied so they would not be a challenge to the IRGC or the regime. They have been kept out of the regime loop. As conscripts, they were also less likely to turn their guns on the Iranian people."
It is clearly an illegal governance by the IRGC and the mullahs. The actual government with whom we should be negotiating is stating -- that it is now ineffectual. With its legitimate Army.
The IRGC is now clearly before the world an illegitimate power without the support of ITS OWN GOVERNMENT!
YEAH! An illegitimate power without the consent of its own government or its own people! What comes next??
Logically, a restoration of the actual government. I would not call that a coup. But a destruction of the revolutionaries who have no legitimate authority.
Is this when the Shah's son comes in with the official Army? or does the IRGC need to be further degraded? And of course we can do that.
From a legal standpoint, the legitimate government of Iran (using the term loosely) has been overthrown by pirates---who are willing to command, but not to govern. What does that mean? It means they do not care about relationships with other nations, only with power inside their own nation. And making imperious demands against their neighbors. They have de facto closed the door on negotiation, because---with them---there is no negotiation. The bomb-loving homicidal maniacs are fully in charge.
In retrospect, this was probably the only possible outcome. What led to this point was water floating on oil, inherently unstable. But it certainly clarifies to the world that Trump did everything humanly possible to attain a diplomatic closure to the situation. Now, force majeure is the only path remaining.
The force to reclaim the nation should come from the remnants of the legitimate government, and its Army, and its people! The IRGC is illegitimate, it is mostly leaderless, functioning independently of any coordinated nation state. We need to take more of them out, and the people have been telling us where they are.
We have been most prudent and most patient, but I have always thought the resistance has been in the back-channel.
It reminds me of the fall of Germany in World War II: the Fuhrer is dead and anyone else either doesn't really have the authority, doesn't know what to do with it, or is fleeing for their life. When a government collapses, there really isn't a government at all. An occupation force needs to set up a regime to provide order while the citizens compose a new government (or one is set up for them, with a constitutional convention and elections as the first order of business). Something like what happened with Japan.
When the Ottoman Empire had been defeated in World War I, T.E. Lawrence helped to lead the Arab tribes to Damascus to convene and form government in the middle east. Their lack of vision, tribal rivalries, and failure to agree made the conclave a futile disaster, and my impression is that it left Lawrence with a profound sense of failure.
Just saw video today out of Iran from members of the Artesh. They are working with the Immortal Guard and are preparing for when the Crown Prince gives them the order to act. When they come out, they will be joined by other citizens who are more activist. So, they are getting ready. Till the Crown Prince gives the order, we are all waiting. The Crown Prince will not return to Iran until the regime is overthrown and it is safe for him to return.
I follow closely events on the ground in Iran and in the diaspora community. This is coming from several well connected Iranians that know quickly what is taking place. I can tell you that what appears on the surface is a far cry from what is being planned and what is actually occuring. It is huge.
Even since yesterday things are changing rapidly. For example, it is appearing that the IRGC does not have as firm a grip on control as they tried to portray. Yes, they have money and guns, but loyalist public support is not in their hands. They have been trying to orchestrate a military coup of the government, but those plans are hitting some major roadblocks. At the moment, there appears to be 3 power blocks in the mix. None of them are acceptable to the Iranian people. So let them exhaust and destroy themselves fighting with each other over who rules Iran. Don Tzu knows what he is doing - defeat your enemy without engaging in battle.
Meanwhile, Trump keeps the pressure on by not taking the IRGC's bait to draw the US and Israel back into all out kinetic action. This is not what the regime wants. The regime is fractured and eating itself. So sit back and watch the show. Trump and his team are masters of strategic ambiguity.
I won't go into the details of what is being planned because it is very involved. But be assured, there are major happenings between Trump, Pahlavi, and some other nation states that cannot be broadcast publicly on the record for obvious more global reasons of diplomatic cover and aspects operational security. Just know there are things taking place and things are being planned - especially in regards to arming the Iranian people. And it will not be paid for by American taxpayers.
Continue to pray that God's hand guides all involved and that things unfold in a way that brings good outcome, not only for the people of Iran, but for all of us.
The president and the government never had any real decision making power. They were just a face to make the Islamic Republic appear like somewhat of a functioning nation state. They are just as corrupt and evil as the rest of the regime. In reality, power always flowed from the supreme leader and the mullahs. With the supreme leader removed, along with some of the mullahs, that left the vacuum that the IRGC was quickly able to fill because they were always part of the regime power structure from the beginning. They have the guns and control a large majority of the nationalized infrastructure that they drain for personal gain and to fund proxies and terror. The "government" controlled almost nothing. The surviving mullahs were sidelined by the IRGC and forced to approve Ali's invisible son, the cardboard ayatollah, as supreme leader to give the appearance of legitimacy. Whether he is dead or alive at this point, doesn't really matter.
The IRGC was built to protect the regime - themselves. They always have been the muscle of the regime and its operational arm in projecting power and expanding the Islamic Revolution. Without Ali there to keep them on a leash, they stepped into that vacuum left by the death of Ali and the mullahs and seized control.
The Artesh, the national army, was always deliberately underfunded and minimally supplied so they would not be a challenge to the IRGC or the regime. They have been kept out of the regime loop. As conscripts, they were also less likely to turn their guns on the Iranian people. That is why the regime uses foreign proxies and their Basij forces to suppress the people.
How many Artesh still remain at their posts is hard to say. Some deserted or defected. Very few are actually getting paid. If they can be armed, many would stand with the people. However, there are pockets of regime loyal Artesh at key posts in the country that are mixed with IRGC. The regime tries to make sure at least they are paid. But with revenues quickly crumbling, that may become harder to pull off by the regime as the blockade continues.
"The Artesh, the national army, was always deliberately underfunded and minimally supplied so they would not be a challenge to the IRGC or the regime. They have been kept out of the regime loop. As conscripts, they were also less likely to turn their guns on the Iranian people."
It is clearly an illegal governance by the IRGC and the mullahs. The actual government with whom we should be negotiating is stating -- that it is now ineffectual. With its legitimate Army.
The IRGC is now clearly before the world an illegitimate power without the support of ITS OWN GOVERNMENT!
YEAH! An illegitimate power without the consent of its own government or its own people! What comes next??
Logically, a restoration of the actual government. I would not call that a coup. But a destruction of the revolutionaries who have no legitimate authority.
Is this when the Shah's son comes in with the official Army? or does the IRGC need to be further degraded? And of course we can do that.
From a legal standpoint, the legitimate government of Iran (using the term loosely) has been overthrown by pirates---who are willing to command, but not to govern. What does that mean? It means they do not care about relationships with other nations, only with power inside their own nation. And making imperious demands against their neighbors. They have de facto closed the door on negotiation, because---with them---there is no negotiation. The bomb-loving homicidal maniacs are fully in charge.
In retrospect, this was probably the only possible outcome. What led to this point was water floating on oil, inherently unstable. But it certainly clarifies to the world that Trump did everything humanly possible to attain a diplomatic closure to the situation. Now, force majeure is the only path remaining.
The force to reclaim the nation should come from the remnants of the legitimate government, and its Army, and its people! The IRGC is illegitimate, it is mostly leaderless, functioning independently of any coordinated nation state. We need to take more of them out, and the people have been telling us where they are.
We have been most prudent and most patient, but I have always thought the resistance has been in the back-channel.
It reminds me of the fall of Germany in World War II: the Fuhrer is dead and anyone else either doesn't really have the authority, doesn't know what to do with it, or is fleeing for their life. When a government collapses, there really isn't a government at all. An occupation force needs to set up a regime to provide order while the citizens compose a new government (or one is set up for them, with a constitutional convention and elections as the first order of business). Something like what happened with Japan.
When the Ottoman Empire had been defeated in World War I, T.E. Lawrence helped to lead the Arab tribes to Damascus to convene and form government in the middle east. Their lack of vision, tribal rivalries, and failure to agree made the conclave a futile disaster, and my impression is that it left Lawrence with a profound sense of failure.
Just saw video today out of Iran from members of the Artesh. They are working with the Immortal Guard and are preparing for when the Crown Prince gives them the order to act. When they come out, they will be joined by other citizens who are more activist. So, they are getting ready. Till the Crown Prince gives the order, we are all waiting. The Crown Prince will not return to Iran until the regime is overthrown and it is safe for him to return.
I have been hoping that!
So have we all sister.
I follow closely events on the ground in Iran and in the diaspora community. This is coming from several well connected Iranians that know quickly what is taking place. I can tell you that what appears on the surface is a far cry from what is being planned and what is actually occuring. It is huge.
Even since yesterday things are changing rapidly. For example, it is appearing that the IRGC does not have as firm a grip on control as they tried to portray. Yes, they have money and guns, but loyalist public support is not in their hands. They have been trying to orchestrate a military coup of the government, but those plans are hitting some major roadblocks. At the moment, there appears to be 3 power blocks in the mix. None of them are acceptable to the Iranian people. So let them exhaust and destroy themselves fighting with each other over who rules Iran. Don Tzu knows what he is doing - defeat your enemy without engaging in battle.
Meanwhile, Trump keeps the pressure on by not taking the IRGC's bait to draw the US and Israel back into all out kinetic action. This is not what the regime wants. The regime is fractured and eating itself. So sit back and watch the show. Trump and his team are masters of strategic ambiguity.
I won't go into the details of what is being planned because it is very involved. But be assured, there are major happenings between Trump, Pahlavi, and some other nation states that cannot be broadcast publicly on the record for obvious more global reasons of diplomatic cover and aspects operational security. Just know there are things taking place and things are being planned - especially in regards to arming the Iranian people. And it will not be paid for by American taxpayers.
Continue to pray that God's hand guides all involved and that things unfold in a way that brings good outcome, not only for the people of Iran, but for all of us.