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posted ago by Narg ago by Narg +20 / -0

https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/gold-is-plunging-for-all-the-wrong

. . . When I put together my 26 Stocks To Watch For 2026, I didn’t include many gold and silver names like I did in 2025. That wasn’t because I had turned bearish on the long-term case for hard assets. It was because the sector had already had a monster run in 2025, and I didn’t love chasing miners and precious-metals names after everybody had suddenly rediscovered inflation, currency debasement and safe havens all at once.

Gold had already gone vertical. Silver had already had a face-ripping move. A lot of the easy money had already been made. But six months later, today, I like the setup much better.

Why? Because the market is now selling gold and silver miners on what I believe are the wrong assumptions. The new narrative is that the Fed has rediscovered religion, quantitative easing is off the table, and the central bank is not only willing but able to keep policy tight long enough to let the economy “ride it out.”

Kevin Warsh can posture all he wants. The Fed can talk tough all it wants. It can even try to squeeze in another hike or two if it wants to cosplay as Paul Volcker for a quarter. But I think the market is making the same mistake it always makes when it takes central-bank theater at face value: it assumes the Fed has both the stomach and the room to stay hawkish when the real stress finally hits. I don’t think it does.

My view hasn’t changed: the endgame here is still intervention. Maybe we fake it for a while. Maybe the dollar keeps squeezing higher. Maybe gold and silver continue getting pushed around as traders price in one more round of hawkishness and tell themselves the Fed is going to normalize the system without anything breaking. But I don’t buy the idea that this ends with a clean landing, no QE, no emergency liquidity, and a disciplined central bank that simply holds the line while debt-laden markets calmly adjust. That’s fantasy and it defies what few tenets of basic math and economics we still have to cling to.

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