Another query from Chat GPT gave me the following:
The US Dollar to Oil ratio refers to the relationship between the value of the US dollar and the price of crude oil. A high ratio means that the US dollar is strong compared to oil, and a low ratio means that oil is relatively more expensive. The ratio can be read as zero if the value of the US dollar becomes so low that it is equal to the price of a barrel of crude oil. This is highly unlikely and would likely be indicative of a major economic crisis.
Based upon this information, this is still not a non-happening. Unless this interpretation and conclusion is wrong.
I don't really understand the significance of the m2 supply lowering, I just thought it represent Quantative Tightening, rather than Quantative Easing.
i.e. they are printing less money this year than last, but not by a massive amount from the charts I looked at.
Well . . . Chat GPT could be totally off on all of this.
I asked it a follow up question about your statement:
Is the following true?
"If year on year increase of m2 is <0, then that divided by anything will be zero."
The output was:
"No, the statement is false. If the year-on-year increase of M2 (a measure of the money supply) is negative, then dividing it by anything will not necessarily be zero. It would depend on the value being divided by. For example, if the year-on-year increase of M2 is -5 and it is divided by 2, the result would be -2.5, not zero."
This didn't really give me a relevant answer, so I asked the following:
What would cause the value to be zero?
The output was:
The value being zero could occur if the year-on-year increase of M2 is zero. For example, if the increase in the money supply from one year to the next is exactly zero, then dividing that value by any number (including itself) would result in zero. In this case, the year-on-year increase of M2 would not be negative, but rather remain unchanged from one year to the next.
This seems to align with your explanation of the happening.
I inquired further though:
Could this indicate an economic crisis?
The last reply was:
No, a year-on-year increase of M2 of zero does not necessarily indicate an economic crisis. A flat growth rate in the money supply can have several causes, including changes in monetary policy or shifts in demand for money. However, in some cases, a persistent decline in the rate of growth of the money supply can be a sign of an economic slowdown or a decrease in economic activity. In this context, it could potentially be a warning sign of an impending crisis, but it is not a reliable indicator by itself. Other economic indicators, such as employment, inflation, and gross domestic product, would also need to be considered.
So I'm getting conflicting explanations from the GPT, unless I am not understanding the right terminology to specify to GPT, and therefor receiving inadequate or inaccurate feedback.
I think you might be right in your assessment after all, but it would still be worth keeping an eye on this situation. It also could be the case that GPT has algorithms in place to deliberately obfuscate certain subject matter, thereby producing inconclusive search results.
Why are you asking chatgpt for an interpretation instead of reading and understanding the charts yourself?
M2 is declining, i.e. Tight monetary policy, decrease in dollars available. When M2 is negative, the ratio of "newly printed money this year" to "silver ounces mined this year" is going to look like this:
(Amount of dollars printed this year)/(Silver ounces mined this year)
Let's say, for simplicity's sake. Zero money is printed and one ounce of silver is mined.
What is 0/1?
Result is 0.
That's all it means. Literally. Now, what are the implications of monetary tightening? That's tbe more interesting question.
Stop using apps and bs "AI", or you'll risk more than relying on google and GPS.
It doesn't mean what you think it means.
It's a ratio of year on year m2 supply vs. gold mined etc.
If m2 supply is lower than last year then this is effectively zero.
u/simon_says is probably the best inhouse expert who can tell us what is the significance of shrinking M2 supply.
Hmm . . .
Like I said, I'm no economist.
Another query from Chat GPT gave me the following:
Based upon this information, this is still not a non-happening. Unless this interpretation and conclusion is wrong.
That's interesting, thanks.
I don't really understand the significance of the m2 supply lowering, I just thought it represent Quantative Tightening, rather than Quantative Easing.
i.e. they are printing less money this year than last, but not by a massive amount from the charts I looked at.
Well . . . Chat GPT could be totally off on all of this.
I asked it a follow up question about your statement:
The output was:
This didn't really give me a relevant answer, so I asked the following:
The output was:
This seems to align with your explanation of the happening.
I inquired further though:
The last reply was:
So I'm getting conflicting explanations from the GPT, unless I am not understanding the right terminology to specify to GPT, and therefor receiving inadequate or inaccurate feedback.
I think you might be right in your assessment after all, but it would still be worth keeping an eye on this situation. It also could be the case that GPT has algorithms in place to deliberately obfuscate certain subject matter, thereby producing inconclusive search results.
I did say 'effectively' zero :)
I'm pretty sure the coders of the debt clock have just put something in there that says 'if {value} < 0 then {value} = 0'
Perhaps ask it what the m2 supply being less this year than last year means?
Why are you asking chatgpt for an interpretation instead of reading and understanding the charts yourself?
M2 is declining, i.e. Tight monetary policy, decrease in dollars available. When M2 is negative, the ratio of "newly printed money this year" to "silver ounces mined this year" is going to look like this:
(Amount of dollars printed this year)/(Silver ounces mined this year)
Let's say, for simplicity's sake. Zero money is printed and one ounce of silver is mined.
What is 0/1?
Result is 0.
That's all it means. Literally. Now, what are the implications of monetary tightening? That's tbe more interesting question.
Stop using apps and bs "AI", or you'll risk more than relying on google and GPS.