His idea of "conservative investments" appears to be heavily government related. I would highly disagree with that assessment, meaning, SVB was not a conservatively structured financial institution.
Said poster assumes that the Venture Capitalist investitures that SVB held for others were low-risk (or at the very least, not high risk). We have no idea what the actual risk is of the people using SVB for their venture capitalizing.
OP also seems to take SVB's books as 100% honest, which is laughable these days. If you haven't learned how corrupt the financial institutions are these days, then you haven't learned much.
All that having been said, solid analysis of how much the financial world is in danger. Again, this analysis also ignores much of the finance world's shady dealing.
TLDR: SVB isn't necessary a good example of a solid financial institution. Things look riskier than OP says. Lastly, OP isn't taking into account the shadiness of the financial world and their cronies.
That's a tough question to answer, not so much because the results are tough to predict, but rather I don't know which one(s) will happen.
The first portion of speculation depends on whether or not this is a white hat or white hat controlled operation. If so, the bumpy ride will mostly be for the corrupt hedge fund managers and their Lehmen Brosesque brethren. Will there be potential backlash for the rest of us? Sure, but if the white hats are in control, we should see the system recover pretty nicely as they should have the smarts to set us in the right direction after placing the debt at the feet of those who are in the wrong. Will there be some collateral from those who aren't corrupt financial types (and the politicians in their pockets). This is likely our best case scenario, in which case: pass the popcorn, the cabal is finally about to fall (which could cause some dangerous waves, so be careful all)
Middle of the road scenario: white hats are somewhat in control, but not enough to let most damage remain on the cabal. In this particular situation, the white hats have done enough to initiate the collapse, but haven't necessarily done enough to put a replacement in place. This one also varies the most depending on how awake we are as a nation (and to some extent a world) and how crippled the cabal/deep state has become. In this situation, the government does some level of bailing out and finds ways to throw people under the bus (depending on how powerful the deep state/cabal still is, this could be some fairly big names or some nobodies). This situation is a bit of a buckle up, inflation could get even uglier than it is, some people might find their bank accounts under water (potentially temporarily, potentially permanently), supply chain issues due to financing problems from various entities. Credit Unions are typically safer than banks, but it is hard to predict which individual entities will have the most trouble. Again, depending on how much power the cabal/deep state still has, this is just more transferring of power and money to the wrong people or a prolonged fight where the awakened start to push back.
Last scenario: white hats are not in control. Government bails out the banks that they see as their preferred banks. Inflation goes out of control. Some banks bite the dust and the government mostly just helps out their corrupt friends. If inflation tends to go too far and the people start to turn on Biden, the cabal starts WW3. This has two potential outcomes: white hats use WW3 and the hemorrhaging of the financial system to finally take down the cabal. So we get some rough times while the white hats clean things up. Alternatively, the black hats escape once again and we find ourselves even closer to global authoritarianism.
Option 1 is essentially your white pill hopeful situation.
Option 2 is your red pill varying from optimistic to pessimistic
Option 3 is basically black pill (with potential white pill after cleanup)
Lastly, credit unions, local banks, physical commodities (silver, gold, etc), keeping money on hand, and diversification are always your best bet against any sort of financial downturn. Also, develop skills that you can use for bargaining and bartering. Depending on the timeline, some of these might be too late. Things could spark as soon as next week or as late as next year, but I'd guess sooner rather than later.
Thanks for the scenarios. I think you've really covered it well. If only this site could broker some betting... with fake money, and the fake money could be used to buy things like Pepe emojis, that kind of shit. haha.
Anyway, you've got me thinking, and I REALLY appreciate your time and insights.
This is, perhaps, the most difficult question to answer. If we look to the past (great depression) for precedent, they even made owning gold illegal (up until the 70s, if I am not mistaken). So, if the government really turns on us, then we best know how to hide our gold, silver, guns, and, to be safe, likely our bibles as well. I'm hoping enough people are awake that the government won't dare take our gold/silver again.
That having been said, cash on hand (it'll be worth less than before, but not necessarily worthless). Gold and silver, on hand is better than certificates, certificates are better than nothing. Larger sizes for longer term, smaller sizes for in case you run out of cash. Land is good for long term. Crypto is a hard one to predict. Bitcoin, being the most well-known is also one of the safest, but could also become a target for the same reason. Ethereum is also well-known, but could become a target. A lot depends on how bold Biden and co really are/how awake the country is. The government will continue to get away with as much as we allow.
Historically, CDs and bonds did well, but I'm not a huge fan of bonds because they're so tied to the government. Direct investments in companies, if you can find a local company that is well-run and needs the cash infusion. I've already said land, but even if you aren't able to produce on the land yourself, you might find others who are willing to work the land and give you some of the fruit of their labor. Art can be a solid investment, but it can also be tough to acquire. Up and coming artists are harder to find, but the value of their stuff can be solid. Antiques, if you can ensure they don't get damaged, aren't a bad investment. Though the opinions on what is a nice antique can change over time.
Oh, the irony. "Getting cash out now" is what CAUSES a run on the banks in the first place.
Herpa Derp.
SVB's collapse was predictable, and the result of an completely inappropriate mix of maturity dates on its assets. Frankly the incompetence shown by the SVB's leadership and CEO is staggering especially for someone who was on the board of the San Francisco Fed.
SVB was run by woke idiots, for woke idiots. They were a collection of diversity-hire buffoons, and the results were not only predictable but inevitable. Extrapolating from SVB to all the other financial institutions is simply not accurate.
If banks were merely a box in which people store their assets, there would be no issue in taking back your property from the box, just like if you check your coat at a restaurant or club, you wouldn't expect the restaurant/club to go bankrupt if everyone wanted their own property back at the end of the evening.
There's nothing wrong with that logic. If you have the time and flexibility, a cashier's check is pretty easy to do, but it might cost $10 or so. Thanks
Question for y'all who understand the financial world better than me: So if I have a 401k that has bonds and stocks in it, do I bite the bullet and withdraw now and face heavy taxation, or do I ride out the storm?
I don't know the answer to that. I'm keeping mine but I have stopped contributing to it. I've been buying silver and GME and DWAC stocks with the money I used to contribute. Not a lot, just a little each paycheck. FWIW
3 caveats on the OP's analysis.
His idea of "conservative investments" appears to be heavily government related. I would highly disagree with that assessment, meaning, SVB was not a conservatively structured financial institution.
Said poster assumes that the Venture Capitalist investitures that SVB held for others were low-risk (or at the very least, not high risk). We have no idea what the actual risk is of the people using SVB for their venture capitalizing.
OP also seems to take SVB's books as 100% honest, which is laughable these days. If you haven't learned how corrupt the financial institutions are these days, then you haven't learned much.
All that having been said, solid analysis of how much the financial world is in danger. Again, this analysis also ignores much of the finance world's shady dealing.
TLDR: SVB isn't necessary a good example of a solid financial institution. Things look riskier than OP says. Lastly, OP isn't taking into account the shadiness of the financial world and their cronies.
TLDR's TLDR: buckle up, bumpy road ahead
Nameless, thanks for the insights. Care to hypothecate regarding "bumpy road" ?
That's a tough question to answer, not so much because the results are tough to predict, but rather I don't know which one(s) will happen.
The first portion of speculation depends on whether or not this is a white hat or white hat controlled operation. If so, the bumpy ride will mostly be for the corrupt hedge fund managers and their Lehmen Brosesque brethren. Will there be potential backlash for the rest of us? Sure, but if the white hats are in control, we should see the system recover pretty nicely as they should have the smarts to set us in the right direction after placing the debt at the feet of those who are in the wrong. Will there be some collateral from those who aren't corrupt financial types (and the politicians in their pockets). This is likely our best case scenario, in which case: pass the popcorn, the cabal is finally about to fall (which could cause some dangerous waves, so be careful all)
Middle of the road scenario: white hats are somewhat in control, but not enough to let most damage remain on the cabal. In this particular situation, the white hats have done enough to initiate the collapse, but haven't necessarily done enough to put a replacement in place. This one also varies the most depending on how awake we are as a nation (and to some extent a world) and how crippled the cabal/deep state has become. In this situation, the government does some level of bailing out and finds ways to throw people under the bus (depending on how powerful the deep state/cabal still is, this could be some fairly big names or some nobodies). This situation is a bit of a buckle up, inflation could get even uglier than it is, some people might find their bank accounts under water (potentially temporarily, potentially permanently), supply chain issues due to financing problems from various entities. Credit Unions are typically safer than banks, but it is hard to predict which individual entities will have the most trouble. Again, depending on how much power the cabal/deep state still has, this is just more transferring of power and money to the wrong people or a prolonged fight where the awakened start to push back.
Last scenario: white hats are not in control. Government bails out the banks that they see as their preferred banks. Inflation goes out of control. Some banks bite the dust and the government mostly just helps out their corrupt friends. If inflation tends to go too far and the people start to turn on Biden, the cabal starts WW3. This has two potential outcomes: white hats use WW3 and the hemorrhaging of the financial system to finally take down the cabal. So we get some rough times while the white hats clean things up. Alternatively, the black hats escape once again and we find ourselves even closer to global authoritarianism.
Option 1 is essentially your white pill hopeful situation.
Option 2 is your red pill varying from optimistic to pessimistic
Option 3 is basically black pill (with potential white pill after cleanup)
Lastly, credit unions, local banks, physical commodities (silver, gold, etc), keeping money on hand, and diversification are always your best bet against any sort of financial downturn. Also, develop skills that you can use for bargaining and bartering. Depending on the timeline, some of these might be too late. Things could spark as soon as next week or as late as next year, but I'd guess sooner rather than later.
Thanks for the scenarios. I think you've really covered it well. If only this site could broker some betting... with fake money, and the fake money could be used to buy things like Pepe emojis, that kind of shit. haha.
Anyway, you've got me thinking, and I REALLY appreciate your time and insights.
So where is money safe right now? If you're in a bank that goes bust how long does it take to get your 250K? Are CDs at risk?
I have a neighbor that had a 450K check from a home sale. She's 86. Where can she put that money risk free.
Thanks in advance if you, or anyone replies.
This is, perhaps, the most difficult question to answer. If we look to the past (great depression) for precedent, they even made owning gold illegal (up until the 70s, if I am not mistaken). So, if the government really turns on us, then we best know how to hide our gold, silver, guns, and, to be safe, likely our bibles as well. I'm hoping enough people are awake that the government won't dare take our gold/silver again.
That having been said, cash on hand (it'll be worth less than before, but not necessarily worthless). Gold and silver, on hand is better than certificates, certificates are better than nothing. Larger sizes for longer term, smaller sizes for in case you run out of cash. Land is good for long term. Crypto is a hard one to predict. Bitcoin, being the most well-known is also one of the safest, but could also become a target for the same reason. Ethereum is also well-known, but could become a target. A lot depends on how bold Biden and co really are/how awake the country is. The government will continue to get away with as much as we allow.
Historically, CDs and bonds did well, but I'm not a huge fan of bonds because they're so tied to the government. Direct investments in companies, if you can find a local company that is well-run and needs the cash infusion. I've already said land, but even if you aren't able to produce on the land yourself, you might find others who are willing to work the land and give you some of the fruit of their labor. Art can be a solid investment, but it can also be tough to acquire. Up and coming artists are harder to find, but the value of their stuff can be solid. Antiques, if you can ensure they don't get damaged, aren't a bad investment. Though the opinions on what is a nice antique can change over time.
Get cash out now, there is going to be a run on the banks when the sheeple start panicking. You can always put it back in.
Oh, the irony. "Getting cash out now" is what CAUSES a run on the banks in the first place.
Herpa Derp.
SVB was run by woke idiots, for woke idiots. They were a collection of diversity-hire buffoons, and the results were not only predictable but inevitable. Extrapolating from SVB to all the other financial institutions is simply not accurate.
Ok, keep yours in. To each his own!
Getting YOUR cash out certainly isn't. What a stupid comment.
If you're not a billionaire, you don't matter to banks.
I don't doubt what you're saying. I think the point is more about domino effects.
If banks were merely a box in which people store their assets, there would be no issue in taking back your property from the box, just like if you check your coat at a restaurant or club, you wouldn't expect the restaurant/club to go bankrupt if everyone wanted their own property back at the end of the evening.
There's nothing wrong with that logic. If you have the time and flexibility, a cashier's check is pretty easy to do, but it might cost $10 or so. Thanks
Question for y'all who understand the financial world better than me: So if I have a 401k that has bonds and stocks in it, do I bite the bullet and withdraw now and face heavy taxation, or do I ride out the storm?
I don't know the answer to that. I'm keeping mine but I have stopped contributing to it. I've been buying silver and GME and DWAC stocks with the money I used to contribute. Not a lot, just a little each paycheck. FWIW
This wasn't triggered by a bank run though, the Fed raising the rates hurt their bond position big time.