A strategic withdrawal for a few months last year is far far from a defeat. Militarily a smart move—military history will show how the Russians approached this “war” the same as WW2. Withdraw and inflict mass casualties on your enemy and then push forward. Rinse and repeat. When the military pundits are largely in agreement of anywhere of a 7 to 1 up to a 16 to 1 kill ratio, Ukraine has largely ran out of troops thus the swiping of young kids and old men off the street to send to the front lines. War is hell. I believe that the tipping point will be realized by early summer. Time will tell. I just pray it ends.

In case you have never understood this, the Russians are not concerned to gain territory. They are concerned to destroy the Ukranian armed forces, which they are able to do at 1000 dead UKR per day as the Ukrainians throw themselves at Bakhmut like lemmings over a cliff. The Russian losses are only a tenth as much, and they are patient. The Ukrainians are now desperate for men, weapons, and ammunition, all of which are evaporating. The magic bullets from the West are highest on the list for Russian artillery to obliterate.

Bakhmut is the center of a crossroads of major highways that are crucial to holding the region, and are at the eastern side of four major defense fortification lines. One has been breached, and the Russians are working on the next two (they are adjacent). Once they have been breached, the third line is less fortified. After that, the steppe is open to them. Once the ground dries, they can burst forth. Right now, it probably has 0 people. The size of the town is irrelevant to its strategic significance.