All other countries around the world are seeing 10% to 40% excess deaths… and those are huge anomalies from the norm. So I’m going to call 3000% bogus without some serious data.
To put this in perspective, 2.8 million U.S. Citizens die each year, about 0.8% of the populations. A 3000% increase would mean 24% of the population died in a single year. That would be 84 million people, or about one out of every 4 humans.
It's probably right but usiing misleading math. 3,000% is a factor of 300. "Excess deaths" is deviation from some arbitrary rolling average- in some cases it has just been a raw subtraction of this year minus the previous year. In that case if the excess in 2020 was 17 and excess in 2022 was 5000, 1:300 would be the correct ratio. Maybe the standard deviation in such a small country with a total population of 5 million people and it floats around 20. 3,000% is still a massive number.
You are right about it being a ratio based on an excess above a rolling average. Effectively, the 2.8 million people mentioned in the previous comment would be "zeroed out". That is, they would be expected deaths and so not "excess".
You could have a 3000% increase if the base year number was very very small. Stats should focus on the percentage of excess deaths each year vs. total deaths, not the increase or decrease between years.
All other countries around the world are seeing 10% to 40% excess deaths… and those are huge anomalies from the norm. So I’m going to call 3000% bogus without some serious data.
To put this in perspective, 2.8 million U.S. Citizens die each year, about 0.8% of the populations. A 3000% increase would mean 24% of the population died in a single year. That would be 84 million people, or about one out of every 4 humans.
So, no. Clickbait headline.
It's probably right but usiing misleading math. 3,000% is a factor of 300. "Excess deaths" is deviation from some arbitrary rolling average- in some cases it has just been a raw subtraction of this year minus the previous year. In that case if the excess in 2020 was 17 and excess in 2022 was 5000, 1:300 would be the correct ratio. Maybe the standard deviation in such a small country with a total population of 5 million people and it floats around 20. 3,000% is still a massive number.
POI: 3,000% is actually a factor of 30, not 300.
You are right about it being a ratio based on an excess above a rolling average. Effectively, the 2.8 million people mentioned in the previous comment would be "zeroed out". That is, they would be expected deaths and so not "excess".
Thanks for pointing that out, it was super late and I just spaced that obvious thing.
That's definitely discernment right there.
You could have a 3000% increase if the base year number was very very small. Stats should focus on the percentage of excess deaths each year vs. total deaths, not the increase or decrease between years.
That’s not how percentages work. Typically 0.8% of your population dies. 3000% is 30x so 24% of your population dies. That’s clearly not happening.