We knew the comex would run out. I belive they figured it out for sure when they smashed the price last week. Since they don't have to give out metal after it's gone,they want to settle the rest cheep.
The LBMA London main metal vault,is said to be even worse than the comex....
The LBMA London main metal vault,is said to be even worse than the comex....
Concerns regarding the transparency, inventory levels, and physical availability of precious metals in the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) vaults compared to the COMEX have intensified in recent years, with some analysts and market observers arguing the situation in London is more severe. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
Key issues highlighting the vulnerability of the LBMA vaults include:
• Shrinking Silver Inventories: LBMA silver holdings have experienced a long-term decline, with inventory levels falling over 30% from a peak of 1,180 million ounces (Moz) in June 2021 to 823 Moz by March 2024. As of early 2025, these stocks reached their lowest point since 2016, with sharp monthly declines reported.
• Massive Outflows to COMEX: In early 2025, a significant, "record" amount of gold and silver was moved from London vaults to the US (COMEX) to meet demand, which reduced liquidity in the London over-the-counter (OTC) market.
• "Unallocated" vs. "Allocated" Accounts: Over 90% of trading in London occurs through unallocated accounts, where investors do not own specific bars but hold an IOU from a bank. This system allows for the rehypothecation of metal, meaning multiple paper claims can exist for a single physical ounce.
• "Paper" vs. Physical Gap: Similar to the COMEX, the LBMA has been described as having a large gap between physical metal availability and the paper market, leading to concerns that a "short squeeze" could break the system.
• Cash Settlement Premiums: Due to shortages in physical gold to satisfy maturing contracts, an increasing number of London contracts are being settled for cash rather than physical delivery, sometimes at a high premium.
• Transparency Issues: While the LBMA has begun publishing monthly data for gold and silver, critics argue that the lack of real-time, granular reporting on who owns what in the unallocated system hides the true level of leverage. [2, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14]
While the LBMA emphasizes that its accredited bullion represents the highest standards of purity and that it continues to increase transparency, critics argue that the sheer volume of "paper" claims against the physical silver and gold held in London makes it highly vulnerable to a delivery failure. [15, 16, 17, 18, 19]
Conversely, some market analysts point out that the recent surge in silver prices in late 2025 has triggered inflows, suggesting the system is working, albeit with high volatility and severe market tightness. [20, 21, 22, 23, 24]
I think they see what's coming and are going to try to smash the price before/on that date. The vault might be drained, but they're still contracts. Those contracts settle the price on the date no matter what's in the vault. The strategy might be loss minimization. Draining the vault at $40oz is less of a loss than $120.
Ready and waiting! I hope it blows the bankers all up and goes to prices nobody has dared dream of! I've seen plenty of people predicting $200-$600 silver in 7+ years time. Don't get me wrong I would be very happy. But what are the chances that could be way to low an estimate?
COMEX Silver Delivery Crisis: 21 Days Until March First Notice Day
The COMEX silver market is showing unprecedented stress as we approach March 2026 delivery. Using official CME warehouse reports and delivery data, this analysis reveals a systematic draining of physical silver that may result in a delivery shortfall within weeks.
THE CORE PROBLEM:
As of February 5, 2026:
March 2026 open interest: 429 million ounces
COMEX registered silver inventory: 103.5 million ounces (and falling)
February 2026 delivery rate: 98% (18.72M oz delivered from 19.11M oz open interest)
Inventory drainage rate: 785,000 ounces per day
January 2026 deliveries: 49.4 million ounces (7.27x the 2024 level)
If March 2026 sees even 25% of contracts stand for delivery, COMEX would need 107 million ounces - potentially more than will be available by first notice day (February 27). If the delivery rate matches January-February intensity (50-70%), we're looking at demands for 200-300 million ounces against available inventory of 85-103 million ounces.
KEY FINDINGS:
The 2025 Acceleration:
Total COMEX silver deliveries doubled from 203 million ounces in 2024 to 474 million ounces in 2025. Every single month in 2025 saw higher deliveries than the same month in 2024. This wasn't a one-time event - it was a systematic shift toward physical delivery.
The January 2026 Warning:
January delivered 49.4 million ounces - 4.17 times January 2025's level and 7.27 times January 2024. This occurred in a historically minor delivery month, indicating front-running behavior as market participants secured physical silver before March.
The February 2026 Smoking Gun:
As of early February, 18.72 million ounces have been called for delivery from February open interest of 19.11 million ounces - a 98% delivery rate. This is not a functioning futures market where contracts typically roll forward. This is a physical allocation mechanism.
The Inventory Collapse:
COMEX registered silver has fallen from 167.7 million ounces in October 2025 to 103.5 million ounces in February 2026 - a 38% decline in just over three months. The drainage rate has accelerated to 785,000 ounces per day. If this continues through February 27 (March first notice day), only 85 million ounces may be available
I'm ready; works for me. Demand 4X Supply - HI HO SILVER!
Name checks out.
Clive is the best.
We knew the comex would run out. I belive they figured it out for sure when they smashed the price last week. Since they don't have to give out metal after it's gone,they want to settle the rest cheep.
The LBMA London main metal vault,is said to be even worse than the comex....
The LBMA London main metal vault,is said to be even worse than the comex....
Concerns regarding the transparency, inventory levels, and physical availability of precious metals in the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) vaults compared to the COMEX have intensified in recent years, with some analysts and market observers arguing the situation in London is more severe. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
Key issues highlighting the vulnerability of the LBMA vaults include:
• Shrinking Silver Inventories: LBMA silver holdings have experienced a long-term decline, with inventory levels falling over 30% from a peak of 1,180 million ounces (Moz) in June 2021 to 823 Moz by March 2024. As of early 2025, these stocks reached their lowest point since 2016, with sharp monthly declines reported.
• Massive Outflows to COMEX: In early 2025, a significant, "record" amount of gold and silver was moved from London vaults to the US (COMEX) to meet demand, which reduced liquidity in the London over-the-counter (OTC) market.
• "Unallocated" vs. "Allocated" Accounts: Over 90% of trading in London occurs through unallocated accounts, where investors do not own specific bars but hold an IOU from a bank. This system allows for the rehypothecation of metal, meaning multiple paper claims can exist for a single physical ounce.
• "Paper" vs. Physical Gap: Similar to the COMEX, the LBMA has been described as having a large gap between physical metal availability and the paper market, leading to concerns that a "short squeeze" could break the system.
• Cash Settlement Premiums: Due to shortages in physical gold to satisfy maturing contracts, an increasing number of London contracts are being settled for cash rather than physical delivery, sometimes at a high premium.
• Transparency Issues: While the LBMA has begun publishing monthly data for gold and silver, critics argue that the lack of real-time, granular reporting on who owns what in the unallocated system hides the true level of leverage. [2, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14]
While the LBMA emphasizes that its accredited bullion represents the highest standards of purity and that it continues to increase transparency, critics argue that the sheer volume of "paper" claims against the physical silver and gold held in London makes it highly vulnerable to a delivery failure. [15, 16, 17, 18, 19]
Conversely, some market analysts point out that the recent surge in silver prices in late 2025 has triggered inflows, suggesting the system is working, albeit with high volatility and severe market tightness. [20, 21, 22, 23, 24]
AI responses may include mistakes.
[1]Â https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/outflow-london-gold-vaults-us-slows-down-says-lbma-2025-03-07/
[2]Â https://www.lbma.org.uk/articles/latest-lbma-data-clearing-and-vault-data-february-2021
[3]Â https://qz.com/1803712/birmingham-shows-why-the-uks-hs2-plans-are-so-controversial
[4]Â https://www.gainesvillecoins.com/blog/bullion-brief-june-2nd-2025-gold-central-banks-fed-uncertainty
[5]Â https://seekingalpha.com/article/4854508-silver-not-silicon-why-the-next-market-leader-in-2026-wont-be-ai
[6]Â https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/outflow-london-gold-vaults-us-slows-down-says-lbma-2025-03-07/
[7]Â https://www.facebook.com/groups/336794456719727/posts/2572474766485007/
[8]Â https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2025-02-07/londons-gold-and-silver-markets-remain-robust-even-vault-holdings-decline
[9]Â https://ingoldwetrust.report/nuggets/breakout-or-fake-out-is-this-silvers-golden-moment/
[10]Â https://www.numismaticnews.net/coin-market/did-the-london-new-york-markets-default-on-gold-deliveries
[11]Â https://www.lbma.org.uk/prices-and-data/london-vault-data
[12]Â https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r85hdbKjgpg
[13]Â https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/outflow-london-gold-vaults-us-slows-down-says-lbma-2025-03-07/
[14]Â https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/29/silver-hit-record-highs-in-2025-and-still-has-further-to-run.html
[15]Â https://www.itmtrading.com/blog/blog/silver-stage-set-for-delivery-meltdown-comex-lbma-crisis
[16]Â https://learn.apmex.com/investing-guide/what-is-the-lbma/
[17]Â https://alchemist24.substack.com/p/the-vulnerability-of-etc-holders
[18]Â https://medium.com/@rtayli.naoufal/the-ecbs-gold-warning-why-central- banks-fear-physical-delivery-demand-2c184389ee55
[19]Â https://news.futunn.com/en/post/66651268/breaking-through-the-75-mark-the-momentum-behind-silver-s
[20]Â https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2T_MzCzGjdw
[21]Â https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-10/london-bullion-vaults-see-historic-inflows-after-silver-squeeze
[22]Â https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/silver-at-100-marks-the-shift-from-speculation-to-execution
[23]Â https://www.insidehalton.com/news/silver-gold-prices-canada/article_6e91f178-d54f-5732-825f-8b810a355782.html
[24]Â https://discoveryalert.com.au/silver-market-2025-tariffs-impacts-prices/
copied / pasted AI Overview
I agree with the AI.
If we all use AI more, the price of silver will go up. I asked the AI and it confirmed this is true.
I think they see what's coming and are going to try to smash the price before/on that date. The vault might be drained, but they're still contracts. Those contracts settle the price on the date no matter what's in the vault. The strategy might be loss minimization. Draining the vault at $40oz is less of a loss than $120.
Ready and waiting! I hope it blows the bankers all up and goes to prices nobody has dared dream of! I've seen plenty of people predicting $200-$600 silver in 7+ years time. Don't get me wrong I would be very happy. But what are the chances that could be way to low an estimate?
Summary from Clive Thompson's Video:
COMEX Silver Delivery Crisis: 21 Days Until March First Notice Day
The COMEX silver market is showing unprecedented stress as we approach March 2026 delivery. Using official CME warehouse reports and delivery data, this analysis reveals a systematic draining of physical silver that may result in a delivery shortfall within weeks.
THE CORE PROBLEM:
As of February 5, 2026:
March 2026 open interest: 429 million ounces COMEX registered silver inventory: 103.5 million ounces (and falling) February 2026 delivery rate: 98% (18.72M oz delivered from 19.11M oz open interest) Inventory drainage rate: 785,000 ounces per day January 2026 deliveries: 49.4 million ounces (7.27x the 2024 level)
If March 2026 sees even 25% of contracts stand for delivery, COMEX would need 107 million ounces - potentially more than will be available by first notice day (February 27). If the delivery rate matches January-February intensity (50-70%), we're looking at demands for 200-300 million ounces against available inventory of 85-103 million ounces.
KEY FINDINGS:
The 2025 Acceleration:
Total COMEX silver deliveries doubled from 203 million ounces in 2024 to 474 million ounces in 2025. Every single month in 2025 saw higher deliveries than the same month in 2024. This wasn't a one-time event - it was a systematic shift toward physical delivery.
The January 2026 Warning:
January delivered 49.4 million ounces - 4.17 times January 2025's level and 7.27 times January 2024. This occurred in a historically minor delivery month, indicating front-running behavior as market participants secured physical silver before March.
The February 2026 Smoking Gun:
As of early February, 18.72 million ounces have been called for delivery from February open interest of 19.11 million ounces - a 98% delivery rate. This is not a functioning futures market where contracts typically roll forward. This is a physical allocation mechanism.
The Inventory Collapse:
COMEX registered silver has fallen from 167.7 million ounces in October 2025 to 103.5 million ounces in February 2026 - a 38% decline in just over three months. The drainage rate has accelerated to 785,000 ounces per day. If this continues through February 27 (March first notice day), only 85 million ounces may be available
At this rate, silver will be sub $20 by end of Feb.
If it goes to 20, im buying 1500 ounces