Commercial ships have not completely stopped moving, but traffic is severely disrupted and effectively stalled for most commercial vessels.
As of June 20, 2026, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is characterized by conflicting reports and a near-total halt in visible commercial transit:
De Facto Blockade: Live tracking data indicates zero outbound commercial vessels (crude tankers, container ships, bulk carriers) have completed transit today. The main central route remains closed due to approximately 80 naval mines laid during the recent conflict, forcing ships to attempt dangerous alternative routes along the Omani or Iranian coasts.
Conflicting Claims:
Iran declared the Strait closed to all vessels on June 20, citing ceasefire violations by the U.S. and Israel.
The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) contradicts this, stating that 55 merchant ships transited safely on June 20 under U.S. naval escort, moving over 17 million barrels of oil.
Shipping Industry Reality: Despite U.S. claims, major tanker operators report that the risk of mines, grounding, and signal jamming makes transit "unacceptable." Consequently, over 500 vessels remain stranded on either side of the Strait, waiting for safe passage assurances.
While a few ships (mostly Iranian tankers or those moving "dark" without transponders) are managing to pass, normal commercial shipping has effectively ceased until the minefields are cleared and security guarantees are solidified.
Obviously Iranian leaders will shut down the Strait of Hormuz any time they want and for any reason. There is no deal making or treaty we can sign that guarantees they won't do it again at will.
I believe that President Trump foresaw this and is already 5 steps ahead. The MOU was very generous, and President Trump has been criticized for it, but soon that will not be the case. I think what President Trump is going to do is reveal that Venezuelan oil production is now ready to pump out 100 million barrels of oil a day. He will flood the market and bring oil down to $20-30 a barrel, making the straight of Hormuz meaningless. When Iran comes begging for any deal he can offer, he'll be fully justified in telling them that they had their chance and now are condemned to obscurity on the world stage.
OK, but Venezuela oil is only good for diesel-production. ME oil is good for making higher grade stuff, such as petrol, and helium, sulphuric acid etc.
So no, Venezuela coming online will not solve anything really.
Clustered along the US Gulf coast are some of the largest and most complex heavy-oil refineries in the world. These sprawling industrial hubs, owned by major US oil companies, stand ready to emerge as some of the major victors of Donald Trump’s swoop on Venezuela.
“Most of Venezuela’s crude supply is heavy, sour oil, which if you’re a US refiner is one of the most ideal grades of crude you could ask for,” said Janiv Shah, a vice-president at Rystad Energy, a global consultancy.
“At the moment, US refineries import heavy crude into the Gulf states via pipeline from Canada and there are also heavy crude options from Colombia and Mexico. But securing Venezuelan crude would be in addition to these, and the geographic proximity of Venezuela helps too.”
It could help to safeguard the US oil industry, which has struggled despite support from the White House against the steepest decline in global oil prices since before the 2020 pandemic, made worse by the economic impact of Trump’s trade war.
Oil can be used for all kinds of things. What big oil doesn't want you to know is that you can turn heavy oil into gasoline, they just have to further crack it to make lighter hydrocarbons. They don't want to do this, because it is easier to get lighter oil from the Middle East, but that's just laziness and wanting to take the easy way. Taking the easy way is what has gotten our country into the state it currently is in. We need to do what is difficult and stop taking in these easy oil sources and products, and instead, be willing to work for what we want.
Obviously Iranian leaders will shut down the Strait of Hormuz any time they want and for any reason. There is no deal making or treaty we can sign that guarantees they won't do it again at will.''
I mean one of the obvious solutions here would be to cut the Israelis loose. Considering they’ve been the sticking point in this whole fiasco and may or may not be the ones violating what does get signed more often than not. Though this latest violation is a case of he said and she said and yet another instance where everyone involved has both the incentive to lie, and a history of lying through their teeth, to justify whatever actions they seek to take. So whoever did or didn’t violate it is probably a moot point at this time.
Though given it’s now clearly become a pain point and point of leverage. Given the previous status quo has been upended. The Iranians will very likely keep doing it periodically any time they feel like they could potentially squeeze concessions out of the West and or their Gulf State neighbors. Regardless of whatever deals get signed or not. Given it, outwardly facing at least, appears to work in securing concessions that are at least somewhat favorable and or at the very least not entirely intolerable and an improvement over their previous status at the very least.
If they can’t justify it with the Israelis bombing someone. They’ll probably be able find another reason to do it in short order if they wanted to. It’s not like the Middle East is short of grudges and reasons for everyone to hate each other even before the U.S or Israelis started mucking about.
Now whether the constant talks and diplomatic outreach is some long and drawn out dance routine to some end not immediately obvious is a different albeit related matter. As it seems clear to many that no piece of paper that gets signed is ultimately going to hold in the long term. Or even the short term at this rate. Which would suggest the diplomatic outreach is ultimately a tactic that may mostly be for show and or cover for other stuff occurring that’s not so readily obvious.
All I know is I wouldn’t want to be on the Diplomatic Team at the moment. As it seems like it’d be an exceptionally stressful and or schizophrenic time. Given how rapidly stuff switches back and forth.
It’s not like the Middle East is short of grudges and reasons for everyone to hate each other even before the U.S or Israelis started mucking about.
Indeed - there are many tribes and families there fighting for supremacy.
The point is: Iran put Lebanon front and centre in the 'peace plan'. IF anyone bombs innocent civilians, the deal is off. So some bright spark thought to 'disrupt' the peace process? Deal's off. Simple.
Commercial ships have not completely stopped moving, but traffic is severely disrupted and effectively stalled for most commercial vessels.
As of June 20, 2026, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is characterized by conflicting reports and a near-total halt in visible commercial transit:
De Facto Blockade: Live tracking data indicates zero outbound commercial vessels (crude tankers, container ships, bulk carriers) have completed transit today. The main central route remains closed due to approximately 80 naval mines laid during the recent conflict, forcing ships to attempt dangerous alternative routes along the Omani or Iranian coasts. Conflicting Claims: Iran declared the Strait closed to all vessels on June 20, citing ceasefire violations by the U.S. and Israel. The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) contradicts this, stating that 55 merchant ships transited safely on June 20 under U.S. naval escort, moving over 17 million barrels of oil. Shipping Industry Reality: Despite U.S. claims, major tanker operators report that the risk of mines, grounding, and signal jamming makes transit "unacceptable." Consequently, over 500 vessels remain stranded on either side of the Strait, waiting for safe passage assurances. While a few ships (mostly Iranian tankers or those moving "dark" without transponders) are managing to pass, normal commercial shipping has effectively ceased until the minefields are cleared and security guarantees are solidified.
Obviously Iranian leaders will shut down the Strait of Hormuz any time they want and for any reason. There is no deal making or treaty we can sign that guarantees they won't do it again at will.
I believe that President Trump foresaw this and is already 5 steps ahead. The MOU was very generous, and President Trump has been criticized for it, but soon that will not be the case. I think what President Trump is going to do is reveal that Venezuelan oil production is now ready to pump out 100 million barrels of oil a day. He will flood the market and bring oil down to $20-30 a barrel, making the straight of Hormuz meaningless. When Iran comes begging for any deal he can offer, he'll be fully justified in telling them that they had their chance and now are condemned to obscurity on the world stage.
OK, but Venezuela oil is only good for diesel-production. ME oil is good for making higher grade stuff, such as petrol, and helium, sulphuric acid etc.
So no, Venezuela coming online will not solve anything really.
Clustered along the US Gulf coast are some of the largest and most complex heavy-oil refineries in the world. These sprawling industrial hubs, owned by major US oil companies, stand ready to emerge as some of the major victors of Donald Trump’s swoop on Venezuela. “Most of Venezuela’s crude supply is heavy, sour oil, which if you’re a US refiner is one of the most ideal grades of crude you could ask for,” said Janiv Shah, a vice-president at Rystad Energy, a global consultancy.
“At the moment, US refineries import heavy crude into the Gulf states via pipeline from Canada and there are also heavy crude options from Colombia and Mexico. But securing Venezuelan crude would be in addition to these, and the geographic proximity of Venezuela helps too.”
It could help to safeguard the US oil industry, which has struggled despite support from the White House against the steepest decline in global oil prices since before the 2020 pandemic, made worse by the economic impact of Trump’s trade war.
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jan/05/venezuelan-crude-oil-appeals-to-us-refineries
Oil can be used for all kinds of things. What big oil doesn't want you to know is that you can turn heavy oil into gasoline, they just have to further crack it to make lighter hydrocarbons. They don't want to do this, because it is easier to get lighter oil from the Middle East, but that's just laziness and wanting to take the easy way. Taking the easy way is what has gotten our country into the state it currently is in. We need to do what is difficult and stop taking in these easy oil sources and products, and instead, be willing to work for what we want.
Obviously Iranian leaders will shut down the Strait of Hormuz any time they want and for any reason. There is no deal making or treaty we can sign that guarantees they won't do it again at will.''
...answer the phone...
...the state department could use your insight...
just read their religious writings. they must lie cheat and steal, it is commanded of them. there is a reason they were banned from the US until 1952.
I think you have the wrong country. Or maybe it's not just the 'religion' that dictates the behaviour towards others in that part of the world?
I mean one of the obvious solutions here would be to cut the Israelis loose. Considering they’ve been the sticking point in this whole fiasco and may or may not be the ones violating what does get signed more often than not. Though this latest violation is a case of he said and she said and yet another instance where everyone involved has both the incentive to lie, and a history of lying through their teeth, to justify whatever actions they seek to take. So whoever did or didn’t violate it is probably a moot point at this time.
Though given it’s now clearly become a pain point and point of leverage. Given the previous status quo has been upended. The Iranians will very likely keep doing it periodically any time they feel like they could potentially squeeze concessions out of the West and or their Gulf State neighbors. Regardless of whatever deals get signed or not. Given it, outwardly facing at least, appears to work in securing concessions that are at least somewhat favorable and or at the very least not entirely intolerable and an improvement over their previous status at the very least.
If they can’t justify it with the Israelis bombing someone. They’ll probably be able find another reason to do it in short order if they wanted to. It’s not like the Middle East is short of grudges and reasons for everyone to hate each other even before the U.S or Israelis started mucking about.
Now whether the constant talks and diplomatic outreach is some long and drawn out dance routine to some end not immediately obvious is a different albeit related matter. As it seems clear to many that no piece of paper that gets signed is ultimately going to hold in the long term. Or even the short term at this rate. Which would suggest the diplomatic outreach is ultimately a tactic that may mostly be for show and or cover for other stuff occurring that’s not so readily obvious.
All I know is I wouldn’t want to be on the Diplomatic Team at the moment. As it seems like it’d be an exceptionally stressful and or schizophrenic time. Given how rapidly stuff switches back and forth.
Indeed - there are many tribes and families there fighting for supremacy.
The point is: Iran put Lebanon front and centre in the 'peace plan'. IF anyone bombs innocent civilians, the deal is off. So some bright spark thought to 'disrupt' the peace process? Deal's off. Simple.
...additional info to add to u/BerlinWallCrosser earlier post...
https://archive.ph/wip/zkMh8
...archived link, just because...