Oh my god! GME is down to $150! It's down to $100! It's down to 30 cents! The hedgies are going to cover all their shorts at that 30cent price point! It's over!
Wrong.
No one is selling at these prices. Sure, maybe a few scared folk who don't know any better. Maybe they trigger a few stop losses. Maybe some margins get called. But it's not enough. Say it with me:
PRICE DOESN'T MATTER
WHAT?!
You heard me. 30cent GME? No problem.
They don't need a low price, they need your shares. If 10 people sell at 30c cents, and that's the only market activity, it's a "30 cent stock" but Melvin only netted ten shares. They are still fucked. They aren't buying 50 million shares at 30c, nor $100, nor $300, and that's their problem. It's an availability issue. Sometimes it's ALSO a price issue (too high for them) but primarily it's the availability.
All the activity driving down the listed share price are illegal ladder attacks (not that legality should be expected at this point, these folk are crooks). Those aren't actual sales though, it's just shares trading hands from hedgie to hedgie. They aren't gobbling up value. These people don't admit defeat, they are neither smart nor humble, they are crooks. They need 50 million+ shares. They need over 100% of the float to sell to them (that 50% float you hear about is accounting shennaigans, ignore it, they are still exposed). You can NOT close that many positions sniping a few shaky handed noobs. We aren't talking about a few shares they need to buy, we're talking about fucking ALL OF THEM.
I'll explain that in a second, but first let me repeat:
PRICE DOESN'T MATTER
So let's say you want to buy 50 million shares, let's look at what shares are being asked for in my hypothetical example market:
# of Shares - Price
x 20 - $0.30c
x 80 - $5
x 400 - $20
x 600 - $40
x 900 - $60
x 2,000 - $100
x 5,000 - $150
x 10,000 - $200
x 30,000 - $300
x 50,000 - $400
x 150,000 - $500
x 1 mil - $1,000
x 15 mil - $5,000
x 30 mil - $69,420
Get it? There are only a few people willing to sell at those low prices. By the time you've bought a quarter million shares (0.5% of what you need to buy) you're back up to the sustained highs. And these are just exaggerations to make a point. A stock price only reflects current trade values, not availability at those prices. If the hedgies are trading their shares back and forth to each other to drive down the price and they have ladder attacked down to a Nickel, that doesn't mean anyone's shares are only worth pocket change, that just means that that is what things are trading at in the moment. There's no volume to buy up at those costs. No one can force you to sell at a Nickel.
Get it?
PRICE DOESN'T MATTER
They need our shares, not a low price. The price does not reflect whether we are 'winning' or not. Their financial reserves indicate that, but there isn't a ticker for that. But be sure, every day the inevitable closes in. Sell out of fear if you like, but you'll just miss out in the end. People like me, as we shore up more funds, snipe these low prices, stealing away shares the hedgies use to ladder and taking shares away from shaky hands and putting them into steady ones.
This isn't financial advice, I just want to make sure people on this sub have the knowledge to not make fools of themselves in casual conversation.
This is a super high quality post. I hope you have put it everywhere.
All of my reddit accounts that had access to /r/wsb have been perma banned (surprise surprise) so the only places I can inject these analysis are here and /biz/
If you appreciate them, them consider yourself the blessed few. But of course, you're here so that was already true :)
Spread the word, sleep easy, and have the right knowledge in your in person conversations.
I am omw to a funeral atm. This evening when I get back I will post this on reddit. This is the type of information that needs to be fully understood in order to win this war.
I agree, this is a critical point everyone seems to be missing. Stock price is not the metric about whether the play is working, if we are winning or not. It's not a bubble, it's a squeeze.
I hope you can get this info spread far and wide.
And sorry about your loss. Sorry someone died before getting to see how this story plays out.
You Sir are a High IQ Individual. I think after this is all said and done. We all need to take the GME Money, and put it into Trump News. It'll be YUGE!
Post this in wsbets.win
This community.. honestly I love the rush of stockmarket.. love seeing the game of it play out. Very pissed to see how openly they cheat. You are off topic of the overall board, but at worst a post gets taken down. Just hoping this is part of collapsing the FED. Think we will find out where the money was borrowed. The SLV rush distraction popped quick. Wish I shorted the free dollar.
I'm still holding strong... ??
Graph of the Volkswagen short squeeze from 2008, as WSB reminded us of how it will likely shape up. https://i.ma.ga/wkaf9.jpeg
Texas here. Just checked my Schwab acct. shares still there (albeit bleeding heavily for now) and trading is not blocked.
The uglier it looks without any volume to justify the free fall, the whiter my knuckles get from holding on for dear life!
HODL
Don't worry, you didn't buy those shares to make a quick buck selling off with some measly 20% rise in value. You aren't chasing a bubble and lamenting missing the top. This isn't a normal position. You're holding for a squeeze - everything in between where you bought and the upcoming $10k/share squeeze is just noise. Ignore it, don't let meaningless fluctuations that change nothing about your original reasoning for buying in affect your mood.
Hedgefunds are going mad trying to not lose this game. All you have to do to win is forget all about it and go eat a sandwich!
Oh I'm holding. I ain't letting go for nuthin! This is my stand. This is my Custer moment.
Only this time, Custer wins.
Retarded Qtard here - I understand how the squeeze works but Explain the upcoming $10k/share squeeze pls.
Sooner or later, the hedge fonds will have to buy up the stock back (?).. and since no one will be willing to sell, they will have to offer more.. much more than thought possible (?)
That Makes sense!
New anal covid test?
I just bought 2 more shares. I now own 3 GME stonks! I’m a first time stock buyer and this shit is WILD! I could really care less if I lose it all. I see the big picture and I want to be able to say I played a role in all this.
HODL THE LINE!!
I just checked a stock chart for $GME and there looks to be quite a lot of volume in the sell orders.
Not really.
Even the laddering where the same thousand shares are bought and sold back and forth to and from the exposed hedgies thousands of times, it's really not much.
Not when they have 50 million shares they need to cover. You are looking for, and fearing, that they will cover their positions. But you need to understand that the hedgefunds have zero intention of ever covering. Not at $100 (even that bankrupts the fund) and not even at $10. They don't lose their house if the fund crashes, just their job and they'll get another in a heart beat. There's zero downside to gambling with other people's money, and that's exactly the kind of person these positions attract.
I wish I knew how better to assuage you all.
I get it.
I'm also seeing a lot of scare-mongering in the stock press as well, which is also a dead give-away.
They seem to have totally missed the point of all this because they're all money-grubbing bastards - they can't conceive of someone throwing away money (potentially) just to screw them over.
I think it's brilliant what people have done with the $GME stock.
Just to understand you correctly.. I am a complete rookie in actual trading but already registered at XTB (I live in Europe)..
Now that the price has falled below $90, I am willing to snipe at these low positions. I also understand I should not give fvck in to any actual fluctuations in order to win if I am looking for a short squeeze..
What is your expectation how the things will be playing out and in what timeframe? I definitely want to be a part of the history and also help the good cause.. I won't mind losing the money eventually..
But, OTOH, if the hedgies are gonna cash out, someone else is gonna end up a winner, right? Is it us? How long should we hold? A month, a year, 10 years, forever?
TIA for all tips and hints, Patriot
You did it right.
As for timeframe, I really don't know. This isn't my profession, I'm just a week into daily rabbit holes learning all this. System analysis and problem solving just happens to be my bread and butter.
Timeframe depends on trigger, and trigger depends on conditions. The trigger we are waiting for are the short sellers being forced to cover their positions. But what conditions make that necessary? Basically we are waiting for them being forced to cover from who they borrowed from. The conditions that we (I) expect are necessary for this is when they can no longer pay the interest (run out of money/people willing to loan them money).
Sustained high prices reduce the timeframe for this, sustained low prices increase the timeframe. But it will happen one way or another. There are also regulatory requirements being floated around that would give definitive dates, but I'm hesitant to repeat them simply because I don't understand them with absolute certainty.
But none of this helps you, so let me put it in actionable terms. Since it could be days, weeks, or even months (but not years, this isn't an infinite thing) my recommendation for your sanity is to become comfortable walking away from the scene anytime the not knowing starts to consume your thoughts. Just let your shares sit there and forget about them, you only need to hold after all. There's no danger of missing things either, when shit happens it's all anyone anywhere will be talking about.
But this isn't a play you should rely on to cover your rent end of month, or a play to make money to pay off the mob hit on you by friday. There is no definitive timeframe - everything the Hedgefunds are doing is to stretch things out so they can stay solvent longer than you can stay irrational. Their best successes simply buy them more time, never infinite.
This is OK.. What caught my attention was your remark about the hedgies not even trying to cover their positions.. this got me like WTF, if they are not forced to cover the shorts (either from the lenders or by legislation), then what sense does it make?
So, let me sum it up - they will need to cover ~120% of the shares.. that means they have to come and try to get my owned stock, sooner or later.. if we all hold, then they're fvcked.. now, my question, what exactly does it mean, fvcked? :)
What I mean is they aren't trying to cover their positions cheaply. If they don't it is true they'll be forced to cover at any cost. But they don't mind that option, they don't lose their house, just their job when the hedgefund collapses.
So their strategy is to wait out retial investors, make them think they lost, that they can't win, so they'll sell, and go away, and all the shares are in circulation again. They want to reset, and erase the last 3 months. They will never VOLUNTARILY cover, because their plan is to make you quit.
And when they fail, and they are fvcked, the price will shoot through the roof as they buy up all of our shares.
That is EXACTLY what I thought.. One more question... can't the hedgies somehow force/bribe/blackmail GameStop to start emission of new shares in order to make up for the missing stock? At least that is what I would try to achieve if I were a rogue player..
In theory yes, but in reality no. That isn't going to happen.
It's a $30 stock based on earnings
It's a $30,000 stock based on it's over shorted position
HOOOOOOOOOOLLLLLLLDDDD!!!!
I’m down 40% but I’m gonna HOOOOOOOOOOOOLD!
Remember what OP said, you haven’t lost anything until you SELL.
I heard they've shut down all Americans from trading these stocks. Is it reasonable to assume they're selling everyone's shares w/o their consent?
My shares are still in my acct. Bleeding profusely but not fatal. Im sure they will “build back better” soon.
Some of that has occurred. Lots of shady shit.
But Americans who were cheated and had their shares sold ... had them bought by others. Hedgies aren't buying shares to cover their positions, they literally can't afford it, that's their problem. Anything beyond what the hedgies need to operate their ladder attacks are all being bought by retail and others who have value bought those shares knowing that the squeeze is inescapable.
Bad for individuals who have been screwed, but hasn't affected the overall situation. Hedgies are as doomed now as ever.
Then it's not over yet, thanks fren.
My goodness no. Not over at all! I'm afraid people look at the stock price like it's the scoreboard in a game. But it's so wrong. Hedgefunds are getting their asses kicked right now, and nothing they are doing is really working - it's not prompting the sell off and abandonment of the stock. The scoreboard is their financial reserves and the float, which is still exactly where it was at the start. These hedgefunds don't have any intention of ever covering their shorts. They'll lose with that strat, but they don't know any other way. It's a shutout right now, no one on their side looks like they'll walk away from this.
There is going to be some craziness.. heads / shoulders , falling knife, dead cat bouncing. Resistance reestablished, supports being built. The stock market is such an addictive game.
Yes. Or, at the very least, making artificial "corrective adjustments, as [they] like to call it.
This makes me feel a little better. I was taking a look at my portfolio a few minutes ago and it isn't looking great...
You haven't lost money until you sell. That's more profound than it sounds though.
If you invested for the squeeze, and you still believe it's going to squeeze, because they still are over 100% float, and they still can't buy to cover their position, then it doesn't matter what the price is, because nothing has changed.
$200?
$100?
$69?
Doesn't matter, all your underlying reasons remain the same.
Here, let's do an example:
Imagine you're Nancy Pelosi and you've just learned that Biden is going to make the whole Federal Government's automobile fleet electric. Shit, Tesla is going to go WAY up once the public learns this! Buy Buy Buy!
So you buy. A lot.
Then Tesla's price dips. Oh no! But you're not worried, because the condition you bought for, the public release, hasn't come out yet. You're down 10%, 20%, 30%!! But you don't care. Nothing about why you bought has changed.
Then the release comes out and the stock rebounds. Tesla gets contracts and it goes higher. Just like you knew it would. Everything that happened in the middle was completely irrelevant.
Please make this its own post. Very helpful and relevant.
I get it. Please don't ever make me pretend to be NP again....
So let's pretend you're Hunter Biden and you've got a crack pipe hanging out of your mouth...
Yikes.
I don't disagree in principle, but I do disagree because of what these price differences actually represent. They can ladder down to a nickel, and I believe the squeeze will look largely the same from there as if it would if it had popped off during the parabolic highs last Thursday. It's all about volume - if you exhaust 50% of you shorted position climbing from a nickel back up to $400, your point stands. But if you only clear 0.5% of you obligation in that move, the squeeze will look the same.
That's why I'm adamant about the price not mattering. There's no volume at these low prices. They can try to normalize them, but no one agrees. It's a $30 stock by company metrics, and a $30k stock by the short position.
Stock price matters, but it shouldn't matter whether any of us makes a profit off of it. That's not the goal. The goal is the systematic and complete destruction of [their] money laundering empires, or which, the Stock Markets and the Central Banks are foundational to this system. We destroy that, the whole corrupt money temple comes crashing down in [their] fat, corrupt heads.
Moar popcorn please!
HODL THE LINE HERE!
Great analysis, thank you for the reassurance!
This.
The wanna play around? I have another paycheck to throw at them.
I'll eat fucking cold beans from a can for a while, the sting of their fraudulent election hasn't worn off and I'm still looking for a fight.
Buy only what you're comfortable walking away from and forgetting about.
If you buy so many that you start to worry, it's not good for your health.
Everyone's hands turn to jelly if they are in deep enough.
No one can diamond hand when they are in so deep that they put their child's insulin up as collateral to a pawn broker.
Buy to the point of comfort, don't buy to the point you start to quiver. Your mental health matters too.
*This IS financial advice
That being said, my goodness are these good prices.
If you're comfortable eating beans, like actually doing that, then the risk vs reward at these price points is really hard to pass up. But be sure you're actually comfortable doing it.
But you don't have to go all in, no one does. The phrase, "buy what you're comfortable losing" isn't wise because you might lose it all, it's wise because you need to be comfortable walking away and not worrying about it.
I'm down and am not phased at all. I sleep fine, and my days aren't distracted. It's not just because of how confident I am in the purchase, but because my purchases won't ruin me.
Two weeks ago people need to buy. A week ago people needed to buy. Now all people need to do is hold. That's it. If you have the diamond hands to scoop up some paper handed sells then great.
But don't budget two weeks of eating beans unless you have two weeks of tortillas, sour cream and guac in your budget as well ya dig?
If you're comfortable eating beans, like actually doing that, then the risk vs reward at these price points is really hard to pass up. But be sure you're actually comfortable doing it.
But you don't have to go all in, no one does. The phrase, "buy what you're comfortable losing" isn't wise because you might lose it all, it's wise because you need to be comfortable walking away and not worrying about it.
I'm down and am not phased at all. I sleep fine, and my days aren't distracted. It's not just because of how confident I am in the purchase, but because my purchases won't ruin me.
Two weeks ago people need to buy. A week ago people needed to buy. Now all people need to do is hold. That's it. If you have the diamond hands to scoop up some paper handed sells then great.
But don't budget two weeks of eating beans unless you have two weeks of tortillas, sour cream and guac in your budget as well ya dig?
I think the hedge fund bought a fraction of the amount they need, but still a lot, and then sold them at low prices to each other to drop the price and cause panic selling. What they don’t understand is that autists who are buying the stock to hurt them do not really panic sell. BTW they do the same thing on comex
This brotherhood of crayon eating retards is beautiful.
$10,000 or $0 I am there. Also, now I can see them sending some message or warning someone is pissed. They even halted GME..
Halts are pretty normal when a stock swings in either direction.
The unusual fuckery are things like the clearing houses changing the rules and requiring 100% deposits on a few stocks (rather than say, 2%) which means that traders like RH who don't have the liquidity must restrict buying because they can only cover x number of new buys.
Still confused. Does price matter?
In this case, only when you buy
boom
back and forth and back and forth and back and forth
hedgie to hedgie
(with a few value snipes along the way)
Essentially...its like paying 15k for a very specific type of car, then the car dealers start to flood craigslist with a bunch of same type of car to get the market to drive the price down. But, we crayon eating retards know this car is work every bit of 15k and we are going to FUCKING HOLD out until that buyer comes to pay what its worth.
Fuck it, I'm in! Buys a share as the ~100USD wasn't doing much for me at the moment.
I’m holding, trying to come up with more cash to buy more.
Don't invest more than you're comfortable. If you take out a payday loan and pawn your daughter's insulin to buy the dip, while it might be the right risk/reward strategy, you're going to have jelly for hands when what we need most are diamonds. Only find, and buy, with money you're comfortable losing. Because if you're comfortable losing it, you'll be comfortable a week from now if things dip to $60 when everyone you know is laughing at you.
The value of diamond hands isn't just that you don't sell, but that you're capable of making a rational decision rather than being swayed by emotions like worry, fear, guilt, self loathing and embarrassment. In a week if they are still above 100% float and still bleeding interest like a siv nothing will have changed, the squeeze is still coming and it's still a solid stock to hold at $500 let alone if it can be found for a $50 ask. But if you're jelly because you're in too deep not only might you sell off at a loss a lose the opportunity later, but you'll be a mental wreck.
Let the hedgies lose sleep, all we have to do is hold. So only buy up to the amount that lets you sleep comfortably and won't intrude your thoughts while you're spending sunday playing catch with your boy or making love to your gf.
If the price drops (but the fundamentals are the same) and you do more than shrug your shoulders that's a sign you may be over exposed relative to you current comfort level.
And if this doesn't apply to you, well, it might apply to a lurker who reads it, so don't worry.
I'm holding AMC till the bitter end!
Great post!
What is your opinion on AAG stock? Wait for the layoffs then purchase?
30 cent GME would be a Godsend for us late-arrivers.
Also, if the MSM is telling you to get into something, GTFO.
Not financial advice. Am monke.
Thank you for this. I'm perfectly fine with my 3 shares plummeting; HODL
3.18 @ $318 avg cost here. I'm a wee todd it. ?????
the fight is happening now in the stock market!
Buying the dips and holding!
soon
OP here, and you're 100% right.
I'm hearing more and more arguments about how they are using volatility to exit by closing out their old shorts for new shorts. It's ludicrous, as you clearly make. I might have to go in deeper on this if this argument persists.
It keeps falling under the same category of not really understanding what shorts at 100%+ float really is. You can't nibble your way out, and definitely not when the lowest price you can nibble is 5x what you sold your borrowed share for.
Can I ask where do you get that NASDAQ info about the shorts being (having been) on 121%?
OK.. I've seen those articles, as well, just can't comprehend where the authors get that info from..
Sorry for the dumb question but what happens on 21-Jan-2022?