Thirteen key indicators go into Lichtman's predition. Those key indicators include:
Party mandate - favors GEOTUS
No primary contest - favors Commulala
Incumbent seeking re-election - favors GEOTUS
No third party - favors Commulala
Strong short-term economy - favors Commulala
Strong long-term economy - favors Commulala
Major policy change - favors Commulala
No social unrest - favors Commulala
No scandal - favors Commulala
No foreign or military failure - Toss-up, likely favors GEOTUS
Major foreign or military success - Toss-up, likely favors Commulala
Charismatic incumbent - favors GEOTUS
Uncharismatic challenger - favors Commulala
His analysis says eight of the keys favor Commulala while three do not, with two toss-ups. Reading into this analysis, I don't see how either of the economy indicators go to Commulala. It is the number one issue for most voters and no one is happy about it. Every real economic indicator (not the fudged numbers from the fed.gov) show the economy is in the tank and getting worse. Record number of corporate bankruptcies, jobs numbers dropping, you name it. No primary contest goes to her by default only because she was selected. And the number of people who have walked away from her simply for this reason is significant, which I don't think Lichtman takes into account. And to claim that GEOTUS is an "uncharismatic challenger" is just bunk. I would also go as far as arguing there is a third party, RFKJr and his supporters, that have mostly swung to GEOTUS.
Flip those five keys, and Commulala is at three. GEOTUS is at eight, with two toss-ups.
"Significant issues would have to arise for Democrat to lose in November", Licthman said. I don't think he realizes they already have.
There is also this: "In 2016, Lichtman predicted a Trump victory using the Keys. However, Trump lost the popular vote, and Lichtman had previously clarified that the Keys only predicted the popular vote, not the Electoral College outcome."
Well, that might just be taken as a sort of proof that there were shenanigans during that election too, and Trump maybe actually won the popular vote then too, but still.
And of course there is still the question whether his predictions are truly based on those keys of his, or if he gets some "hints" from the uniparty and his predictions are one way to steer the voters into the right direction, the way polls can be used. And 2016 was maybe supposed to be his second failure (first seems to have been Gore vs Bush), with Trump maybe being allowed to get the popular vote but not the Electoral College.
Lichtman seems to be, besides a historian, a Democrat politician. Ran for senate 2006. So maybe not completely neutral when it comes to defining how his keys fall this time.
One thing missing:
God - favors Trump
Thirteen key indicators go into Lichtman's predition. Those key indicators include:
His analysis says eight of the keys favor Commulala while three do not, with two toss-ups. Reading into this analysis, I don't see how either of the economy indicators go to Commulala. It is the number one issue for most voters and no one is happy about it. Every real economic indicator (not the fudged numbers from the fed.gov) show the economy is in the tank and getting worse. Record number of corporate bankruptcies, jobs numbers dropping, you name it. No primary contest goes to her by default only because she was selected. And the number of people who have walked away from her simply for this reason is significant, which I don't think Lichtman takes into account. And to claim that GEOTUS is an "uncharismatic challenger" is just bunk. I would also go as far as arguing there is a third party, RFKJr and his supporters, that have mostly swung to GEOTUS.
Flip those five keys, and Commulala is at three. GEOTUS is at eight, with two toss-ups.
"Significant issues would have to arise for Democrat to lose in November", Licthman said. I don't think he realizes they already have.
There is also this: "In 2016, Lichtman predicted a Trump victory using the Keys. However, Trump lost the popular vote, and Lichtman had previously clarified that the Keys only predicted the popular vote, not the Electoral College outcome."
Well, that might just be taken as a sort of proof that there were shenanigans during that election too, and Trump maybe actually won the popular vote then too, but still.
And of course there is still the question whether his predictions are truly based on those keys of his, or if he gets some "hints" from the uniparty and his predictions are one way to steer the voters into the right direction, the way polls can be used. And 2016 was maybe supposed to be his second failure (first seems to have been Gore vs Bush), with Trump maybe being allowed to get the popular vote but not the Electoral College.
What a crock of #%^! I’m not sure why an economy on the brink or well into a depression favors cameltoe?!
“ Strong short-term economy - favors Commulala Strong long-term economy - favors Commulala Major policy change - favors Commulala No social unrest - favors Commulala No scandal - favors Commulala”
Lichtman seems to be, besides a historian, a Democrat politician. Ran for senate 2006. So maybe not completely neutral when it comes to defining how his keys fall this time.
Ikr what kind of parallel universe he dwell
With all due respect. Fuck that guy and the rainbow color dildo he rode in on
I wonder how much the democrats paid for this prediction. Hooey!
"nearly all"
well, every now and again, even the best are wrong
He's basing his prediction on media lies.
The economy is not strong...... The market is strong,but 1/2 of america don't have 401ks.
And he assumes Kamala can make it thru the debate. She will fuk it up worse than joe.
I think that he is a burnable media asset.
He has a great track record, now the cabal asks for the big favour which will end his career.
She will NOT WIN. She may get more ballots but not more votes.
Most of the time after two terms, that party takes a break. Trump wins.
Key word “Nearly”! Doesn’t mean all!!
I wonder if Lichtman ever visited Epstein Island?
So have I and I predict trump will win.
Nearly,,,, Nearly........BS
I guarantee Lichtman got something out of it. Plomo o plata.
Dudes filling out his own guidelines with lies to come to this conclusion