Preface: I am not an economist, nor am I particularly smart.
Let's assume, for the sake of argument, that Trump wins in November. Let's also assume that he manages to enact all the various economic policies he's proposing:
- Reducing the size & scope of government
- Bringing jobs back to America by reducing corporate taxes for business making American goods
- Increased taxes (tariffs) for goods made outside America
- Various tax breaks for individuals (no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, etc.)
It seems to me like the tariffs will hit as soon as the law is put in place, whereas the tax breaks won't show until the next tax season. Reviving American manufacturing will take a few years, minimum; until then, the prices for things like semiconductors will be higher, since they're made outside the country.
To be clear, I'm not saying these are bad ideas -- I do think it will benefit the economy in the long term. I just want to know if I should prepare for a short-term crunch, or if I'm reading the tea leaves wrong.
Oil and gasoline might become cheaper overnight, thus a lot of things might go down in price due to cheaper transportation costs. Remember, cutting taxes are one thing but cutting the price of a gallon of gasoline has a lot more weight in our economy. Tax cuts will take effect whenever you gotta pay your tax bill, maybe in a year, IDK your state's particular pay schedule, but everyone across the nation will benefit when the price of gasoline goes down. Now that will necessitate the drilling for oil so more gasoline can be manufactured, or reopen closed down gasoline wells and begin pumping, that way you don't have to drill new wells. Plus there might have to be new oil refineries built to handle the added pressure of more folks using their own vehicles for transportation. And if Trump can get the price of new cars down to a reasonable price, then more folks will want to get out on the road. (<$20K/car) Certainly within six months after Jan 20, '25 everyone in America should see some sort of savings.
The cheaper gas sets in motion a cascade effect which ripples through all sectors of the economy. Ultimately driving up consumer spending, and starting the engine of a strong economy.
Newtons Law, Energy sector layoffs. Exploration will suffer, building rigs will suffer. The big boys will sit back and pump and leave the exploration to the small guys who work with investors just trying to make a slim buck. $85 was the magic number a few years back.
D'oh! I knew I forgot something. Thanks, and you're absolutely right that it should impact everything.
I saw a story this morning about Trump wanting to implement a tax break on car loan interest. Saw some people arguing that this would drive up the cost of cars. What do you think?
Toyota has a new pickup truck, it is currently being sold in 3rd world countries, and it is only $13K. If Toyota can get a barebones, basic pickup into the American market then it would sell zillions of them. Most Americans are tired of having to shell out $50K for a pickup truck to be used as a beater around a job site. If Ford and Chevy were smart they'd want to do the same thing. Isn't it better to sell a zillion $13K trucks than a few $50K trucks? It would keep their assembly lines running at full tilt, keep their employees EMPLOYED, and make the Americans want to purchase Ford and Chevy trucks, enmass, again. Pickup trucks should not cost the same amount as a 1980's house!
Could spur new purchases
A short term economic consequence is that prices will be higher due to tariffs while another one hurts the economy (not by much) by cutting the bloated government, but there will be increased roles for bounty hunters in order to round up illegals.
", but there will be increased roles for bounty hunters in order to round up illegals." America... FUCK YEAH
You can't have good decent paying manufacturing jobs in the US, while simultaneously buying everything from China.
The bogeymen billionaires get richer in the process. Using slave labor to sell you cheap crap you dont need, that causes cancer, instead of things you actually need, that are made right here safely.
You also remove a large pollution vector by reducing ocean transport vessels. While reducing the cost to produce sell goods by eliminating the high shipping costs.
It is also a matter of national security. To destroy your own industrial base presents opportunities for your enemies to poison your critical component supply lines, surpass your ability to create weapons, munitions, missiles, etc. And by weakening your manufacturing capacity it reduces your ability to effectively counter global threats, respond to natural disasters, and you essentially become dependent upon your chosen third world factory you've decided to let build your components in defense materials. Its treason.
These are all arguments that should pacify many liberal brained people
Lets make all interest tax deductible
Or better yet a credit
Trump's plan will increase the deficit and rebuilding infrastructure will call for increased spending BUT it won't be inflationary. When the government spends money and marshal resources that leads to better productivity and business activity it doesn't cause inflation. The competitive business environment is increases supplies and is a break on higher prices. This strategy offsets the fear of higher prices due to Trump's tariffs.
Trump's tax plan will also keep more money in people's pockets and circulating in the economy.
Years is optimistic. A few decades is probably more realistic. There’s quite a bit of expertise that either no longer exists domestically. Or exists in such small numbers that it’ll take years to start producing people with the know how again in sufficient quantities to meet the demand.
So how much and how fast Industry can grow is capped on the amount of expertise we have. Not to mention the lack of bodies to feed into the proverbial grinder for “Less Skilled” word. IE working the assembly line.
Economically Short term. You may see price increases on some “Luxury” goods. I’d imagine they’ll act to stabilize and deflate prices on ‘necessary’ items.
But there’s quite a bit that depends on the legal status of various individuals and companies. As quite a few Companies and Wealthy Corporate Leaders, Managers and Executives have been implicated in nefarious activities.
So if most of the Board, upper management, and Major Shareholders are in jail. Or dancing the Hempen Jig. That might cause some problems
AZ https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/06/tsmc-to-up-arizona-investment-to-40-billion-with-second-semiconductor-chip-plant.html
People will be able to afford living again