The prospect of Trump as the New Speaker of the House does make me happy and tickles me pink. However, in all of the excitement from the MAGA forces, I didn't see any analysis of the downside of Gaetz nominating Trump as Speaker, so, I did my own in my head.
With all due respect to the community, I would like to make the Devil's Advocate argument that Gaetz's stunt of nominating Trump for the Speaker of the House office is dangerous and he's playing with fire.
It is my head-theory that Trump and MTG are weaponizing the Derangement Syndromes the Demonic Rats have towards the two of them against McCarthy. Had the both of them not said anything or endorsed MAGA candidates, the Demonic Rats will break ranks to vote McCarthy into office easily, which is not good for MAGA. By doing a pro-move and endorse McCarthy instead, much to the shock of the MAGA-men, this prevents the Demonic Rats from voting for McCarthy without intense backlash from the TDS monsters they raised so carefully. This prevents McCarthy from getting an easy ride and puts the MAGA group in a position to start forcing a lot of concessions from McCarthy, which is what I think Trump's goal really is.
Gaetz's stunt, while drawing a ton of support, might jeopardize Trump's plan. While the Demonic Rats have a reservation for appearing to support whomever Trump endorsed, the thought of Trump as the Speaker is disgusting to them, to the point that whatever reservations against supporting McCarthy might be overridden and they'll vote for him anyway, regardless of whatever backlash they might get. Heck, maybe the MSM can try to spin it as stopping The Bad Orange Man from rising again to defuse backlash.
As exciting as Trump being speaker might be, sometimes we NEED to think with our brains and think this through instead of letting our emotions to lead to our downfall...
I agree he’s endorsing McCarthy so that no Dems vote for him and now they’re just riding it out but I think there may actually be chance for Trump to become speaker. He did mention the 25th amendment would come back to haunt the Biden administration and if that happens then he would be get placed in presidency and still be able to run in ‘24, that would give us 10 years of Trump presidency
For the exact same reason McCarthy is being humiliated, Trump won't get in. Just need 4 naysayers and it's over. (1) Crenshaw; (2) Bacon; (3) Scalise; (4) McCarthy pretty much ends that idea. And there is a much longer list of sellouts than those 4.
Q+ did just re truth a pic of him being speaker FWIW
You make a good point, but keep in mind, all of this is part of the plan. If Trump wins, its part of the plan, if Trump doesn't win, its part of the plan. Whatever is coming has been planned, we just need to sit back and enjoy the ride.
I think that if Gaetz were endangering white hat plans, Trump would not play along.
I think Gaetz nominating Trump is just trolling. I doubt Trump wants anything to do with being Speaker and he would probably not be good at it. The Speaker needs to be a cat-herder, wrangling votes, getting concessions from different groups for their votes, etc. The Speaker also needs a deep understanding of the rules and how legislation is altered and crafted when moving through the process of becoming a law. Trump is a big picture, leader of the world type, not a wonk.
Lol Trump had no political experience and quickly became one of the top 2-3 presidents of all time (and there’s a very strong argument for number one). He’d learn anything he needs to (and doesn’t know already) within 24-48 hours of being elected speaker.
Your skills in risk analysis are impressive and this perspective is very interesting whether true or not, it is insightful as a train of thought , and I would want you on the planning team for sure.
IMHO I believe the precedent has been - it is considered a taboo and suicidal for legislators to cross parties in such a leadership vote. McCarthy would look like a complete whore if this happened. Could it happen? We live in strange days where everything seems to be turned on its head.
I didn't consider Trump as an alternative to McCarthy. I still believe it is a long shot for it to happen. After the 11th failure to elect a Speaker of the House, it is becoming more evident the 20 patriotic insurgents don't really have an alternative to McCarthy. IMHO, the insurgents are adamant about McCarthy meeting their demands. If you think this is just a handshake agreement, it's not. It's spelled out on paper as a contractual agreement. The second purpose of the 20 insurgents is to expose the swamp in the GOP. They are certainly succeeding in doing so. Trey Gowdy just came out of the woodwork 'reeeee-ing' about the 'clown show' the 20 hold outs are causing. Many more have now exposed themselves. Matt Gaetz is an interesting and charismatic character. I believe Kevin McCarthy tried to screw over Matt Gaetz and Gaetz knows it just like Madison Cawthorn knows. IMHO, I believe Gaetz is publicly mocking McCarthy for betraying Trump when he was president. McCarthy was caught on tape undermining the president and weighing his vote for impeachment. Gaetz is throwing this in McCarthy's face by nominating Trump instead of him. It's revenge and I think there's more of a history going on here with Gaetz and back-stabbing McCarthy.
Trump's likely scenario for supporting McCarthy is for gaining political capital. Consider Trump's actions [for supporting McCarthy] in terms of Las Vegas odds. I'll explain more about this later.
Trump has most likely considered and realized there are no other 'real' GOP contenders for the Speaker of the House position. Even Matt Gaetz just admitted this. Before people jump the gun and claim there is certainly other candidate for the Speakership, you are correct. There are other candidates like Byron Donalds, Andy Bigg and Jim Jordan. However, we have seen in Trump that he seems to pick 'winners' that are sometimes even contrary to his own ideals. Why? This is due to the realization that Trump knows he is most likely not going to affect the outcome of the vote anyway. Did you notice Trump became silent after McCarthy failed to garner the votes after the second round of voting? I believe Trump reevaluated the odds, studied the rules and became more familiar with the process. After this, it appears Trump has decided to remain endorsing McCarthy for Speaker. I'll get to this in a moment, but first correctly picking the winner, despite the ideology, has 'political capital'. This is really seeing Sun Tsu tactics in action. By supporting McCarthy, Trump in the least shows McCarthy that he supported him and can even claim he helped McCarthy to win. It positions Trump to be in better standing with the inevitable candidate. Do I agree with this tactic? No. I am far more ideological and could never be in politics. Have you noticed how public Trump is in supporting McCarthy? Even Don Trump Jr. after being off the radar map for a while has suddenly and very publicly joined his father endorsing McCarthy. It sure seems like a clarion signal that obsequiously says-- "Look, we Trumps are supporting you" in the hopes of getting political capital in return. From my involvement in politics, I found it to be detestable, slimy, and upsetting. I wanted to take a shower after every caucus. Unfortunately, being an idealist in politics never seems to work. It's all about cutting deals. IMHO, Trump already knows this.
McCarthy is still by far the most likely candidate to succeed. With the trickle of defectors going to Byron Donalds, it is not nearly enough momentum after 11 rounds of voting to prevent the inevitable. Trump's pause in supporting McCarthy was to see if McCarthy was still the best contender to win. After reviewing the rules and process, Trump reaffirmed his support for McCarthy. IMHO, this is the reason why Don Trump, Jr. was activated to help reaffirm this message publicly to McCarthy. I recently learned that 218 are not needed to win the Speaker's chair, only a majority is needed. This majority has to surpass Jeffries' 212 votes he has from the demonrats though. The likely scenario is McCarthy cuts major deals with the freedom caucus to garner the necessary votes to get him elected.
We can see that, at least for now, Trump does not have support to be Speaker.
Trump can use this, however, when he is President and/or running for President. He can say to all those R's who did not vote for him, "Hey, you didn't even support me for Speaker. Now, I need something extra from you."
They will all want his endorsement in '24.
Regarding the D's, they are good little slaves on the D plantation. They will do what they are told. So, it is only a few of them who will conspire to do whatever, and tell the others what to do.
They can't just leave or vote present because they would not have enough votes to get their D guy over the top. But they can do it to allow McCarthy to get it.
Maybe that is the uniparty's eventual plan.
The difference between us and them is they know the plan. Let them do their thing and as trump says, we will see what happens!
But yeah, I know I'm not the only one who has been pissed off for how long that as soon as Republicans gain power they turn around and give it all to the left, be grateful there are some people FINALLY standing up, plus the chaos is hilarious. And if McCarthy ends up with the seat trump still has leverage. We need to keep exposing the Rino's for who they are, 2023 is off to a good start.
Discussions have already been undertaken with 45 being Speaker.
https://youtu.be/PqgZN9_thhQ
Time stamp?
(slight tangent not worthy of it's own post) I think I just read Gaetz lips saying, "let's do two more, at least two more" with a gesture of two fingers. Could be a mis-read, but potential forecast.
and talking with two others, one of them said loudly, "I want to know when you do change" to Gaetz
Maybe
Not worried about it.
They wouldn’t even need to vote for McCarthy, if enough vote present the 200 or so votes he’s been getting could be enough.