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WHAT TRUMP'S BLOCKADE WILL DO TO IRAN 💊 RED PILL 💊
posted ago by Narg ago by Narg +146 / -0

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/2043456536454836467.html

Miad Maleki @miadmaleki

1/10 The U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would cost Iran approximately $276M/day in lost exports and disrupt $159M/day in imports, a combined economic damage of ~$435M/day, or $13B/month.

Over 90% of Iran's $109.7B in annual trade transits the Persian Gulf. Oil/gas accounts for 80% of government export earnings and 23.7% of GDP. Kharg Island alone generates ~$53B/year, or as I noted to @TIME, "$78 billion a year in energy revenue.

2/10 CRUDE OIL: Iran was exporting ~1.5M barrels/day, earning $139M/day at wartime pricing (~$87/barrel), though with minimal proceed repatriation due to banking sanctions. A blockade zeroes this out overnight. Kharg Island, which handles 92% of crude exports, sits deep inside the Gulf with no viable alternative. That's $139M/day, gone.

3/10 PETROCHEMICALS: Iran exported $19.7B in petrochemicals in 9 months of 2024/25, ~$54M/day. Virtually all of it ships through Assaluyeh, Imam Khomeini, and Shahid Rajaee, all inside the blockade zone. No overland route can move these volumes. Another $54M/day, gone.

4/10 NON-OIL EXPORTS: Iran's non-oil trade hit $51.7B in 2025. After subtracting petrochemicals, ~$88M/day in goods (minerals, metals, etc.) flow through Persian Gulf ports. Roughly 90% would be blocked. That's another ~$79M/day in lost revenue.

5/10 PORTS: Over 90% of Iran's seaborne trade transits the Strait of Hormuz. Shahid Rajaee (Bandar Abbas) alone handles 53% of all cargo operations. Imam Khomeini handles 58% of basic goods imports. Bushehr ports moved 57M tons last year. All deep inside the Gulf.

6/10 ALTERNATIVES? Iran's options outside the Strait are negligible. Jask, the much-touted bypass, operates at a fraction of its 1M bbl/day design capacity. Only 10 of 20 storage tanks were built. Effective throughput: ~70K bbl/day. Chabahar handles just 8.5M tons/year. The five Caspian ports combined handle 11M tons, versus 220M+ through the Gulf.

7/10 IMPORTS: Iran imported $58B in goods in 2025, ~$159M/day. A blockade chokes off industrial inputs, machinery, and consumer goods. Food inflation already hit 105% by February 2026. Rice prices are up 7x. This gets dramatically worse under blockade. Blockade will hopefully allow offloading of the humanitarian cargos. 8/10 Extremely important topic is the storage clock: Iran has ~50-55M barrels of total onshore oil storage, roughly 60% full. Spare capacity: ~20M barrels. With 1.5M bbl/day of surplus production that normally exports, storage fills in ~13 DAYS. After that, Iran must shut in wells.

Why is this very important: when mature oil wells shut down, bottom water rushes in, a process called water coning. Oil droplets get permanently trapped in rock pores. This oil can never be recovered. Iran's fields already decline 5-8% annually. Forced shut-ins could permanently destroy 300,000-500,000 bbl/day of production capacity, that's $9-15B/year in revenue, gone forever.

9/10 CURRENCY COLLAPSE ACCELERANT: The rial has already cratered from 42,000 to 1.5M per dollar. Banks are limiting withdrawals to $18-30/day. Overall inflation: 47.5%. A blockade eliminating all forex earnings pushes the rial into terminal hyperinflation. The regime issued its largest-ever banknote, 10M rials, worth about $7.

10/10 BOTTOM LINE: A naval blockade imposes ~$435M/day in combined economic damage. Storage fills in 13 days, forcing well shut-ins that cause permanent reservoir damage. The rial enters terminal collapse. Iran's alternatives outside the Strait can replace less than 10% of Gulf throughput. The blockade makes continued resistance economically impossible.

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