Russia really needs this war to end. Their economy is fast going in the tank and they are running out of manpower. The Russian people are also starting to turn. They also want this war to end. China is starting to cut them off - they are going broke as well. If Putin retains Crimea and the eastern territories, that is all he wanted to begin with as a buffer zone against NATO.
After any peace, I think NATO becomes entirely irrelevant, and fades away. Likely the EU as well. I suppose that's why they will do anything to hold off peace.
China has been a huge fly in the ointment in this war. With this peace deal, Trump is trying to realign Putin with the West to strip Russia out of Beijing's orbit. China saw it coming and quickly made two recent unplanned visits to Moscow. One public, one private. The public one sent Premier Li Qiang to make political and economic agreements - energy, trade, and investment. A continued life line to Putin. The second, more secret visit with no official fan fare, was by General Zhang Youxia, vice chairman of the CMC. In short, Russia has already taken delivery when it comes to military aid - so don't you even think about switching sides. Beijing has been the engine powering Putin's entire war machine from behind the curtain - regardless of how they publicly profess that they are neutral. The cost to Russia? Play nice with the West if you have to, but do not sell China out. If the CCP invades Taiwan, Russia must remain neutral or side with Beijing. The bottom line, China is not letting go of Putin and will not be left holding the bag.
China is the only thing that has been keeping Russia propped up. Putin has no guarantees of how far the sanctions will be removed. We shall see how far Trump gets with this. At the very least, the war in Ukraine can finally be over. But whether Trump is going to be able to break Russia away from Beijing so we can isolate China further on the world stage, remains to be seen. NATO, at least as it currently exists, I think its days are numbered.
You’re forgetting about BRICS. Russia and China see a future without the West and already they are achieving this. Neither country requires anything from the West or Europe for that matter. And don’t forget the backhand Trump gave Modi. Disgraceful behaviour.
BRICS is kind of dead in the water. The LME just dumped the Yuan - they will only trade in US dollars. Xi's vision of making the Yuan a competitor to the dollar pretty much has been evaporated. Nobody wants their currency unless they are forced to transact using Yuan. Even the Chinese are dumping Yuan if they can. The Chinese government had to set limits on exchange because of it. No one trusts their currency because is not market based and is easily manipulated.
China's economy is tanking - regardless of what the beautified official numbers say. Direct foreign investment is bailing and they are not quite sure how to stop the hemorrhage. What they are calling FDI is really just Chinese money rerouted through Hong Kong and then put back into China. Even Tesla is scaling back with regards to the Chinese market. International companies are heading for the exits. China is simply no longer worth the risks.
If you take a good look at the nations in BRICS, none of the main players trust each other. It sounded like a good idea at the time, but these countries, especially India, Russia, and China, all have ongoing border disputes that are not going to be rectified any time soon. China would throw any of them under the bus in a heartbeat - and they all know it. The CCP has never been an honest broker with anyone. Russia is dealing with them for the moment because they have to, in order to keep their own boat afloat - but it has cost them dearly. India? If you watch closely, India is playing things close to the vest, not wanting to upset either the West or the East. Don't forget, the US has the market everyone wants. That is a fact.
China may have seemed like a contender to the US led system over 10 years ago, but Xi has all but single handedly blown that up with one really bad policy after another. The Chinese market has lost its demographic dividend and the middle class will soon be none existent - they are returning to poverty. The Chinese dream is dying. Consumers have no money, jobs are scarce, they are drowning in debt and are in a deflationary spiral. Real estate, the main driver of their economy, has imploded. Now their last pillar, exports, are getting hit and they have competition - India and other countries is So East Asia.
BRICS has lost most of the steam it seemed to have when they first started. You could tell by the last summit they had. None of the big players even showed up and the smaller countries are loosing interest. China just is not as impressive as they once were, plus, too many countries have been burned doing business with them. Some of the BRI nations are booting the Chinese out of their countries. Africa is a good example. Several countries in Africa are rioting against the Chinese - looting their business and forcing them out. Many countries are beginning to see the CCP for who they really are.
It has NOTHING to do with the currency, but everything to do with TRADE! This is where Trump got it very wrong because he listens to the neocons. The BRICS nations - and many are joining by the day - realise that trading with the US and Europe is not worth it. And there is nothing they need anyway as they have adapted thru the sanctions which has strengthened manufacturing greatly in Russia. BRICS was set up to bypass this strangling system that doesn’t benefit them, but penalises them and they are not going down that rabbit hole again. Once again, people are gorging down on media lies and their propaganda instead of researching the truth. And just who is dumping US Bonds atm?? It will take America years to recover but hey, there’s another war to start and fight in Venezuela and I think Trump mentioned he wants to have a pot shot at Columbia as well. And the mid terms are rapidly approaching and the neocons and Democrats are chomping at the bit to put their boy Rubio in. Wasn’t it he that put forward the 19 point peace plan - a rabid Ukraine lover and he absolutely despises Trump and has told him so. The old adage - Keep your friends close but your enemies closer - comes to mind. Tell me. Why is JD very, very quiet atm?
Our conclusions obviously differ, especially on the economic and financial front. But I do agree with your assessment of the neocons. They have always been a bunch of war mongering knuckle draggers. They never met a war they didn't like. I am sure it is not easy for Trump to navigate around them considering there are just so many of them - most with their own fingers in the MIC.
China's economy is tanking. It started to show cracks in the mid 2010s. Zero Covid lockdowns drove it over the cliff. They have not recovered. The tariffs are the nail in the coffin. As I already stated, real estate drove about 25 to 30 percent of China's GDP. That market still has not hit bottom yet. China has spent years with a real estate debt economy that has now dried up. Most of the middle class Chinese had their wealth tied up in real estate. And a lot of that property was leveraged. Now they are holding the bag. Most of the property is valued far less than what the mortgages are. There are no jobs and there have been massive pay cuts for those still employed - even for Golden Rice Bowl government workers. Some people go months with no paychecks. There are no personal bankruptcy fixes in China.
Development companies are not fairing any better. Some of the larger companies are either bankrupt or are close to it. Money printed by the government is not flowing into the economy. It just circulates through the banks - used to pay old provincial debt with new loans.
The Yuan really has no value. If the central government did not fix the rate artificially, the Yuan would tank. That is why internationally, countries and other entities are pulling back from dealing in the Yuan. The latest was the LME - London Metals Exchange. As far as developing an alternative to SWIFT, BRICS Pay, it still has not advanced past the prototype stage. Challenges remain due to technical interoperability, divergent national interests, and the lack of a unified BRICS currency. The Yuan getting hit hard makes it seem less likely they will get it off the ground. The Yuan was supposed to be the backbone of BRICS to challenge the dollar based system. As I said, it appears as though that part of BRICS has pretty much evaporated as of late and I don't see that situation improving any time in the near future.
The last meeting of BRICS in Brazil was subdued as compared to years previous. Not a great deal of coverage - especially in the Chinese press. That speaks volumes if you know anything about CCP black box politics. Putin attended by video link and Xi was absent. He sent his lap dog Premier Li Qiang instead. Modi was the only one of the big three that was present. He timed it with a state visit to Brazil otherwise he may have not been there either. India is supposed to be the host country next year. Indonesia joined, but that was expected. They have been pretty roped in due to BRI - but there is some anti China backlash coming from the people and there have been riots. Indonesia tried to institute CCP style internet censorship and the people revolted.
As far as dumping US bonds. I have heard mixed reports on that. China using the nuclear option at this time seems to be unlikely because of their own dire economic situation. They are trying to hold as much foreign currency as they can. It had been speculated that China might try to offload treasuries because of some overnight yield spikes in April, but so far there is no evidence that confirms large-scale dumping.
Thank you for your opinions. All discussions should be on the table.
Nope. I don't watch any mainstream news source. I do my own research - and a lot of it. I don't form my opinions from a few headlines or what some talking head has to say. I have been a China watcher for years - so this is one topic I am very well versed in. I certainly don't buy into CCP propaganda that many in the West have swallowed hook line and sinker. As far as Russia, my own family escaped Russia and I grew up hearing the stories. So I think I have a little better understanding about them versus the average person. Russia is still very good at their own version of propaganda - and there is plenty of it out there.
But let me be clear. I don't buy into our own propaganda either that is pumped out on most news sources. They have their own BS narratives. The truth always lies somewhere in the middle of both sides and I certainly don't take the opinions of some influencer. There are a lot of paid trolls out there. I have been awake for decades. So, you do not have to agree with my own assessments of the situation. But your reply is not a difference of opinion.
LOL no offense Matilda J but that ship has sailed. It was a special military op for about a month to wipe out the biolabs. Then it went from SMO to SMQ—stupid meatgrinding quagmire. >: ^(
The Russian Gov. have not moved to a war footing, but that’s about to change. In the last few days Putin has been telling the world this. The Military and Putin’s patience has run out.
Ukraine has no choice. Their troops are being slaughtered and they lose territory every day. Russia will not budge re NATO and demilitirization. That us why the media is pushing that they must retain a large army and NATO like security gurentees.
Am I reading this right. Ukraine officials decided on the deal, and are sending Gaylord to Washington to finalize. Not Gaylord decided to the deal? Has Gaylord been given the boot?
Instead of spending half a million young men's lives in the Ukraine, Vlad could have ended this war—excuse me—special military operation—at any time, in any year, after taking a month or two to wipe the biolabs off the map.
Putin will not sign anything until the achievement of the SMO has been accomplished. 1. DeMILITARISE Ukraine (NATO/USA) and deNAZIFY it. They are moving very quickly now toward the Dneipa and Ukraine citizens are coming out of their hiding places and thanking the RUSSIAN Military for saving them from the Ukraine military who are systematically murdering their own people. There are fresh graves everywhere. BTW. You may have heard 1/2 million Ukraine KIA but it’s closer to 2 million. The Russian military document the bodies if possible and return identifying documents at prisoner exchanges. Ukraine leave the bodies to rot as they don’t have to pay the families if they are MIA. There have been many protests of wives, mothers etc. in Ukraine but these have gone very quiet due to bad publicity. And Once again, the likes of Zelensky as well as Kellogg and perhaps Whitkoff, Lindsey Graham and the traitor Rubio and other neocons are fooling and lying to Trump. It really is embarrassing. They have been since the beginning.
WINNING: This is a huge achievement.
Amen. 🕊️
Amazing how getting caught stealing $100M from the money provided to UKAtom(?) By the US will bring your ass to the table...
I wonder if Elon put a few tracers on those funds?
Remember the reunion last week?
This
"Blessed are the peacemakers, for they shall be called sons of God. (Matthew 5:9, ESV)
Russia doesn’t. Will go nowhere. ABC is not the most honest and reliable source regarding the SMO.
Russia really needs this war to end. Their economy is fast going in the tank and they are running out of manpower. The Russian people are also starting to turn. They also want this war to end. China is starting to cut them off - they are going broke as well. If Putin retains Crimea and the eastern territories, that is all he wanted to begin with as a buffer zone against NATO.
After any peace, I think NATO becomes entirely irrelevant, and fades away. Likely the EU as well. I suppose that's why they will do anything to hold off peace.
China has been a huge fly in the ointment in this war. With this peace deal, Trump is trying to realign Putin with the West to strip Russia out of Beijing's orbit. China saw it coming and quickly made two recent unplanned visits to Moscow. One public, one private. The public one sent Premier Li Qiang to make political and economic agreements - energy, trade, and investment. A continued life line to Putin. The second, more secret visit with no official fan fare, was by General Zhang Youxia, vice chairman of the CMC. In short, Russia has already taken delivery when it comes to military aid - so don't you even think about switching sides. Beijing has been the engine powering Putin's entire war machine from behind the curtain - regardless of how they publicly profess that they are neutral. The cost to Russia? Play nice with the West if you have to, but do not sell China out. If the CCP invades Taiwan, Russia must remain neutral or side with Beijing. The bottom line, China is not letting go of Putin and will not be left holding the bag.
China is the only thing that has been keeping Russia propped up. Putin has no guarantees of how far the sanctions will be removed. We shall see how far Trump gets with this. At the very least, the war in Ukraine can finally be over. But whether Trump is going to be able to break Russia away from Beijing so we can isolate China further on the world stage, remains to be seen. NATO, at least as it currently exists, I think its days are numbered.
You’re forgetting about BRICS. Russia and China see a future without the West and already they are achieving this. Neither country requires anything from the West or Europe for that matter. And don’t forget the backhand Trump gave Modi. Disgraceful behaviour.
BRICS is kind of dead in the water. The LME just dumped the Yuan - they will only trade in US dollars. Xi's vision of making the Yuan a competitor to the dollar pretty much has been evaporated. Nobody wants their currency unless they are forced to transact using Yuan. Even the Chinese are dumping Yuan if they can. The Chinese government had to set limits on exchange because of it. No one trusts their currency because is not market based and is easily manipulated.
China's economy is tanking - regardless of what the beautified official numbers say. Direct foreign investment is bailing and they are not quite sure how to stop the hemorrhage. What they are calling FDI is really just Chinese money rerouted through Hong Kong and then put back into China. Even Tesla is scaling back with regards to the Chinese market. International companies are heading for the exits. China is simply no longer worth the risks.
If you take a good look at the nations in BRICS, none of the main players trust each other. It sounded like a good idea at the time, but these countries, especially India, Russia, and China, all have ongoing border disputes that are not going to be rectified any time soon. China would throw any of them under the bus in a heartbeat - and they all know it. The CCP has never been an honest broker with anyone. Russia is dealing with them for the moment because they have to, in order to keep their own boat afloat - but it has cost them dearly. India? If you watch closely, India is playing things close to the vest, not wanting to upset either the West or the East. Don't forget, the US has the market everyone wants. That is a fact.
China may have seemed like a contender to the US led system over 10 years ago, but Xi has all but single handedly blown that up with one really bad policy after another. The Chinese market has lost its demographic dividend and the middle class will soon be none existent - they are returning to poverty. The Chinese dream is dying. Consumers have no money, jobs are scarce, they are drowning in debt and are in a deflationary spiral. Real estate, the main driver of their economy, has imploded. Now their last pillar, exports, are getting hit and they have competition - India and other countries is So East Asia.
BRICS has lost most of the steam it seemed to have when they first started. You could tell by the last summit they had. None of the big players even showed up and the smaller countries are loosing interest. China just is not as impressive as they once were, plus, too many countries have been burned doing business with them. Some of the BRI nations are booting the Chinese out of their countries. Africa is a good example. Several countries in Africa are rioting against the Chinese - looting their business and forcing them out. Many countries are beginning to see the CCP for who they really are.
It has NOTHING to do with the currency, but everything to do with TRADE! This is where Trump got it very wrong because he listens to the neocons. The BRICS nations - and many are joining by the day - realise that trading with the US and Europe is not worth it. And there is nothing they need anyway as they have adapted thru the sanctions which has strengthened manufacturing greatly in Russia. BRICS was set up to bypass this strangling system that doesn’t benefit them, but penalises them and they are not going down that rabbit hole again. Once again, people are gorging down on media lies and their propaganda instead of researching the truth. And just who is dumping US Bonds atm?? It will take America years to recover but hey, there’s another war to start and fight in Venezuela and I think Trump mentioned he wants to have a pot shot at Columbia as well. And the mid terms are rapidly approaching and the neocons and Democrats are chomping at the bit to put their boy Rubio in. Wasn’t it he that put forward the 19 point peace plan - a rabid Ukraine lover and he absolutely despises Trump and has told him so. The old adage - Keep your friends close but your enemies closer - comes to mind. Tell me. Why is JD very, very quiet atm?
Our conclusions obviously differ, especially on the economic and financial front. But I do agree with your assessment of the neocons. They have always been a bunch of war mongering knuckle draggers. They never met a war they didn't like. I am sure it is not easy for Trump to navigate around them considering there are just so many of them - most with their own fingers in the MIC.
China's economy is tanking. It started to show cracks in the mid 2010s. Zero Covid lockdowns drove it over the cliff. They have not recovered. The tariffs are the nail in the coffin. As I already stated, real estate drove about 25 to 30 percent of China's GDP. That market still has not hit bottom yet. China has spent years with a real estate debt economy that has now dried up. Most of the middle class Chinese had their wealth tied up in real estate. And a lot of that property was leveraged. Now they are holding the bag. Most of the property is valued far less than what the mortgages are. There are no jobs and there have been massive pay cuts for those still employed - even for Golden Rice Bowl government workers. Some people go months with no paychecks. There are no personal bankruptcy fixes in China.
Development companies are not fairing any better. Some of the larger companies are either bankrupt or are close to it. Money printed by the government is not flowing into the economy. It just circulates through the banks - used to pay old provincial debt with new loans.
The Yuan really has no value. If the central government did not fix the rate artificially, the Yuan would tank. That is why internationally, countries and other entities are pulling back from dealing in the Yuan. The latest was the LME - London Metals Exchange. As far as developing an alternative to SWIFT, BRICS Pay, it still has not advanced past the prototype stage. Challenges remain due to technical interoperability, divergent national interests, and the lack of a unified BRICS currency. The Yuan getting hit hard makes it seem less likely they will get it off the ground. The Yuan was supposed to be the backbone of BRICS to challenge the dollar based system. As I said, it appears as though that part of BRICS has pretty much evaporated as of late and I don't see that situation improving any time in the near future.
The last meeting of BRICS in Brazil was subdued as compared to years previous. Not a great deal of coverage - especially in the Chinese press. That speaks volumes if you know anything about CCP black box politics. Putin attended by video link and Xi was absent. He sent his lap dog Premier Li Qiang instead. Modi was the only one of the big three that was present. He timed it with a state visit to Brazil otherwise he may have not been there either. India is supposed to be the host country next year. Indonesia joined, but that was expected. They have been pretty roped in due to BRI - but there is some anti China backlash coming from the people and there have been riots. Indonesia tried to institute CCP style internet censorship and the people revolted.
As far as dumping US bonds. I have heard mixed reports on that. China using the nuclear option at this time seems to be unlikely because of their own dire economic situation. They are trying to hold as much foreign currency as they can. It had been speculated that China might try to offload treasuries because of some overnight yield spikes in April, but so far there is no evidence that confirms large-scale dumping.
Thank you for your opinions. All discussions should be on the table.
NATO is collapsing we speak.
Where do you get your garbage news?? CNN, MSNBC etc. My Lord does ANYONE do their OWN research?!
Nope. I don't watch any mainstream news source. I do my own research - and a lot of it. I don't form my opinions from a few headlines or what some talking head has to say. I have been a China watcher for years - so this is one topic I am very well versed in. I certainly don't buy into CCP propaganda that many in the West have swallowed hook line and sinker. As far as Russia, my own family escaped Russia and I grew up hearing the stories. So I think I have a little better understanding about them versus the average person. Russia is still very good at their own version of propaganda - and there is plenty of it out there.
But let me be clear. I don't buy into our own propaganda either that is pumped out on most news sources. They have their own BS narratives. The truth always lies somewhere in the middle of both sides and I certainly don't take the opinions of some influencer. There are a lot of paid trolls out there. I have been awake for decades. So, you do not have to agree with my own assessments of the situation. But your reply is not a difference of opinion.
LOL no offense Matilda J but that ship has sailed. It was a special military op for about a month to wipe out the biolabs. Then it went from SMO to SMQ—stupid meatgrinding quagmire. >: ^(
The Russian Gov. have not moved to a war footing, but that’s about to change. In the last few days Putin has been telling the world this. The Military and Putin’s patience has run out.
Ukraine has no choice. Their troops are being slaughtered and they lose territory every day. Russia will not budge re NATO and demilitirization. That us why the media is pushing that they must retain a large army and NATO like security gurentees.
Don't forget that The actor's buddies just got caught with $100m..
Zelensky was in it up to his eyeballs and those fingered are just scapegoats. Notice Zelensky is NOT in Ukraine? Where is he? On the run.
I’m betting Liddle Z will fly to Washington, sign the papers, then go to isreal as a hero, his mission complete.
Am I reading this right. Ukraine officials decided on the deal, and are sending Gaylord to Washington to finalize. Not Gaylord decided to the deal? Has Gaylord been given the boot?
He’s on the run.
Escaped Soviets or Russia?? Huge, huge difference.
Timing
Daily Reminder
Instead of spending half a million young men's lives in the Ukraine, Vlad could have ended this war—excuse me—special military operation—at any time, in any year, after taking a month or two to wipe the biolabs off the map.
Putin will not sign anything until the achievement of the SMO has been accomplished. 1. DeMILITARISE Ukraine (NATO/USA) and deNAZIFY it. They are moving very quickly now toward the Dneipa and Ukraine citizens are coming out of their hiding places and thanking the RUSSIAN Military for saving them from the Ukraine military who are systematically murdering their own people. There are fresh graves everywhere. BTW. You may have heard 1/2 million Ukraine KIA but it’s closer to 2 million. The Russian military document the bodies if possible and return identifying documents at prisoner exchanges. Ukraine leave the bodies to rot as they don’t have to pay the families if they are MIA. There have been many protests of wives, mothers etc. in Ukraine but these have gone very quiet due to bad publicity. And Once again, the likes of Zelensky as well as Kellogg and perhaps Whitkoff, Lindsey Graham and the traitor Rubio and other neocons are fooling and lying to Trump. It really is embarrassing. They have been since the beginning.