Forget piddly 25-50 point interest rate hikes. The real pain will start June 1st. Fed will start reducing its balance sheet. (Explanation in comments)
(media.greatawakening.win)
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Runoff, or Quantitative Tightening is the opposite of what Fed has been doing for the past 2 years - printing money. Essentially, every month they will let ~$50 bil worth of bonds mature and do not reinvest it in the new Treasuries.
What does this mean? It pulls the cash from the market. Right now the entire economy is running on fumes, by the money printed by Fed (almost $80bil every month for the past 2 years).
Think of a bubble that has been blown bigger and bigger and the whole world is having a picnic on top of that bubble. What they are going to do is like bursting the bubble.
I hope Anons are prepared. I hope they have enough cash on hand, invested some of their savings in gold and silver (and crypto if you believe in that), stocked up on food and water and everything else required to survive the bumpy road.
I hope we only walk in darkness for 10 days, but my gut tells me we should be prepared for this to stretch for a month or two. It will be a near death experience.
On the bright side, I dont think things will get dire right away. Perhaps a couple months of tightening before things pop. No one knows, we have to wait and see.
i think they will attempt to keep things afloat thru november but yes june it starts in earnest
What's the worthless cash going to be good for? Is there going to be another run on toilet paper?
Purchase stuff from people who are stupid and don't understand what's ACTUALLY valuable. Gotta save those good resources. ;)
How does Jackson and the greenbacks play into this?
I'm just a layman, but my understanding is Jackson killed the central bank(the "fed"of the time period) at the time and introduced Treasury dollars, known as "greenbacks", which weren't debt banned the wayreserve dollars are. If there is some sort of "white hat" conspiracy to reform the system, wouldn't taking down the Fed and restoring Treasury dollars be an important step?
Blackrock is managing the Fed thru the treasury thanks to Trump's structural changes. On the surface it looks like a private investment bank controlling a semi private central bank controlling the dollar and all stock prices. Other theories exist, but on paper Larry Fink runs the show.
is it possible that's why the people puppeteering biden are trying to crash the economy?
I hope you are correct
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Do you know why the US Debt Clock shows credit card debt falling? I watched it fall 4 billion this week. Also, why is mortgage interest (received and paid) falling? Thanks for your insight.
The only thing I can imagine is people are defaulting...
Maybe. I can't wait to find out.
The runoff is 0.2% of the monthly GDP, do you think it will have that large of an impact? I know psychologically they markets will freak out for a little while. But will consumers even notice?
The run off is half of what the QE was every month. So whatever effect the QE had roughly half the effect every month. Take a look at the stock market during the QE and you will see how badly things will start crashing.
We’re in a system that has become dependent on virtually free money. They don’t even have to contract, just stopping the introduction of new credit and jacking up the interest rates on the rest of it will take the air out of everyone’s sails. What happens when businesses or people can’t access new capital, and many of those that have loans have their rates increase from 2% to 20%?
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The hard deadline I have in my mind is Nov 2024. Soft deadline is Nov 2022. This news is very heartening to me, because really, this is what we have all been waiting for. Whether they will follow through or not is an entirely different question.
Maybe it will all precipitate to a few months before the midterms.
The real deadline is Rev 14:8 and it says "And another angel followed, saying, “Babylon is fallen, is fallen, that great city, because she has made all nations drink of the wine of the wrath of her fornication".
That will be the fall of the economic system of the world with all its fiat currencies.
Amen to that my friend
Hard deadline. u/#q1233
well thats good, maybe we'll get an audit too. spent a couple minutes looking for the tweet, didnt find it, link would be appreciated
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Would you suggest selling stock before this starts happening? What kind of effect will this have on the market?
The post is saying it's going to be a bad year for the market.
You can sell some. So you have some cash to buy in when it drops big. But I wouldn’t take everything out of the market bc it could have a huge run up for no reason as well. Anything is possible. Although not highly likely. Hedge accordingly.
Risk missing out on a possible 20% run or lose your ass in the 80% fall. Depends how many years until retirement I gues.
That’s a good point. Depends on how many years to retirement. If it’s close I would protect the nest a bit more.
What does this mean fro someone buying a house in that time frame?
You can always refinance later, but if the dollar is collapsing any buying power you saved up will evaporate.
Best to keep some of the savings in precious metals and wait out the storm.
Heck, they're artificially holding down the silver prices. They're essentially subsidizing your cost to buy.
Yeah, btw when it goes too down the local mint mysteriously "runs out of silver" and refuse to sell 🤣
But seriously, the answer to "how to survive the storm" is right in front of our faces!
This is a very important question and the answer depends on so many factors.
Also, I am not a financial adviser and everything I say is pure speculation on my part.
The Fed was pumping money for the past 2 years, and using this money to buy, amongst other things, mortgage backed securities (MBS). (Yes the same ones that caused 2008 collapse).
This means the banks were making crazy loans to any tom dick and harry, since they could just bundle the mortgage, sell it to Fed and make a cool buck.
Now if FED indeed does QT, they will stop buying MBS and possible even start onloading them. A lot of bad loans will come to light, a lot of loans will default. A lot of people wont be able to get new loans, and overall there is a good chance that the house prices will take a massive correction (thats probably an understatement).
So in my opinion, buying a house right now is like buying a house in 2006/2007 just before the GFC. There are valid reasons to do it - like park your wealth in fixed assets, and you already have a lot of silver and gold, or you are selling existing property and need to purchase new ones for tax or whatever reasons.
But for the most people, it would be far better to hang tight and let the storm hit, and pick up properties at pennies on the dollar when the crash fully happens.
Also, taking a variable rate mortgage is extremely dangerous right now. Who knows how quickly interest rates will be hiked going forward?
Thanks for the info, I'm asking because I have been interviewing for jobs in Florida and may be making the move soon if something pans out.
Don't move away from family right now. No one knows how this is going to play out. But if it goes very bad you're going to need to consolidate with family and trusted friends. Even a 20k pay raise won't make up for having an extra pair of hands in a dire situation. Consolidate on all fronts!
Good luck fren! Not knowing anymore about your situation, I would say if I were you, I would find a job where I can easily afford the rent for at least a year, save up as much as I can during that time and hang tight for the storm.
Mortgage rates WILL go up, count on that at a minimum. However in the near term, maybe around 3 months give or take, expect the housing market to slow down some depending on where you are. Some of these crazy selling prices might get reined in, who knows.
The bigger issue for most I think will be that we will start seeing layoffs and businesses fail. QT ideally needs to be done slowly....remember how people say about central banks printing money out of thin air? Yes that's their job however in this case they will be deleting money out of thin air. You usually wouldn't want to do this at the same time interest rates are rising, but that's exactly what's been happening lately. I think it's going to be too much all at once and when you have economic/banking models that make sense on paper hit real markets with people, businesses and emotions involved, I believe it's going to get real messy.
Here's a video on quantitative tightening. I'm only just hearing about this from OP, so I'm no expert.
https://youtu.be/vToIXysEvQI
It does look like we going ino a recession. They're are allegedly attempting to controlledly deflate the bubble so it doesn't burst. We know they have more malicious intentions than that.
The video is only 7 mins long and the last slide he presents shows what It us all about, a giant central bank cash grab.
They inflated our currencies with the COVID stimulus make all their buddies rich and now are recalling other money back into the Rothschild's hands leaving us in a situation where everyone not wanting to spend their money.
Assets prices will decrease and you will own nothing and you will be very pissed off about it
I've had a feeling for awhile that things will start getting hairy in June.
Tell me why June? Just a feeling or did you see any other signs?
Just a feeling I've had for a few months. Sadly nothing more concrete than that.
No, there is nothing sad about it. Intuition is a powerful thing. I like to listen to my intuition and also know what others' intuition is saying.