For the financially uninitiated, this means a billionaire financing expert is willing to bet 93% of all the money he has in stock markets that SHTF there, and soon.
MB is an Oracle. Dude has functional Aspergers. He is fearless, because his mind doesn't process fear like normal humans do. He is free from most irrational emotion which sets his mind free to become a living quantum computer. I was following him BEFORE the 2008 crash. He was crying foul in 2006-2007. If he puts 1.6 Billion in play … dont bet against him. Just dont. Its a very bad idea.
$886mm is 2mm shares represented by options x SPY price. ($443 as of June 30, 2023).
they might be $300 strike price in December. Those trade for $.78. So his actual investment in those puts is $1.5mm, not the $886mm. 13F reporting quirk.
I believe options trader call them 'units'
They might be long on individual stocks as a hedge fund, but then they will buy cheap 25% out of the money puts [units] as an insurance policy in case of a major correction or downturn
That guy said “might be” … It “might be” a strike of $900 that expires next week.
MB is likely not going to STRIKE more than 80% of current Close, and wont risk pissing away monster premium decay. I for one would love to know what it actually is.
A look back at The Big Short when Michael Burry was buying Credit Default Swaps.
Note: Right now he is not buying Credit Default Swaps, we are much farther ahead than that. He is putting his whole capital on the line to short NASDAQ and S&P 500
Gold and silver and crypto will still matter, you just want to get away from the city where you have runaway "joggers" burning down homes and businesses.
If he shorted the market, that means he borrowed shares of the market indexes and sold them immediately in anticipation of the price going lower in the future. If the stock market crashes, he can buy them up for cheap and make profit.
However I'm not exactly sure if he did this because if it's leveraged then it'll be more complicated than this.
Burry initiated short position(s) on Tesla before or around early December 2020, according to a now-deleted tweet[24][25] and likely added to his short positions[26][27] after the market cap of Tesla surpassed that of Facebook. Burry predicted Tesla stock would collapse like the housing bubble,[27] saying that "my last Big Short got bigger and Bigger and BIGGER" and taunted Tesla bulls to 'enjoy it while it lasts.'[26] In May 2021, it was reported that he held puts on over 800,000 shares of Tesla.[28] In October 2021, after a 100% rise in Tesla's stock value, he revealed he was no longer shorting it.[29] During the second quarter of 2021, he has reported to hold puts on almost 31 million dollars on the ARKK ETF innovation index managed by Ark Invest.[30]
This is a high conviction bet.
Options have an expiration date, meaning if the drop doesn't happen in a specific time frame, he loses.
By most metrics, markets are overvalued. However markets can remain irrational longer than even Michael Bury can remain solvent.
Let's see.
That is 100% correct. Quite frankly, I dont think we’ve had true price discovery of any asset in decades. The valuation models are inflated by artificially low ‘risk free rates’. Hell … the Fed can now open the window and let banks loan all they need to “investment banks” who then pump that free cash into equity markets (using any one of a hundred special purpose vehicles).
“…We live in an era of fraud…” — Mark Baum, The Big Short
And apparently it’s seeped into our political system, and courts. MSM is still the prostitute. Not much has gotten better, or safer, from fraud. It’s just gotten better at conning people.
Thanks! Post up any info you find interesting or send them to me, I'm pretty interested in those details.
I'm much more experienced on the crypto side. I haven't gone in the red at all but that's because I bought in before everyone else. If theres anything you want to learn about crypto lmk, especially Cardano. I'm learning to be a Dev in that ecosystem and I keep up to date with major projects, news, and technical details on how everything works.
Did you see the markets move, today? It has begun. Equity prices may recover back to about this level, in Minor wave 2, but other than that, we will not see these prices for years. Crypto should stay stable, but beware, DXY trades inverse to crypto, as they have historically been seen as risk assets. People who think dollar is dead might want to take a second look, over the next 12-18 months, bc I doubt it touches 102 again, soon.
Look at Cantillons Essay and Uneducated Economist
King Dollar The Destroyer, Proving Its Resilience | Uneducated Economist
Dollar will go up, up, up then fall hard.
Look for "dollar denominated debt in foreign non-banking entities". I forgot where I can find this but it is out there. This will dive hard before the dollar dives hard.
My guru tracks the indices and crypto. He says cardamom will be worth 30.
Did you mean Cardano?
Don't use Robinhood to buy crypto man and dont use your phone to trade crypto. Ive known hedge fund traders that lost their crypto dickin around on their phone.
Always store your crypto long term in a wallet. Hardware wallet is best. I expect the government will get rid of exchanges at some point and Robinhood has a history of screwing over its customers and freezing assets.
I'd recommend Kraken, Kucoin, or Coinbase for trading.
Cardano and Atala PRISM will change the financial industry completely. It will allow dapps implementing credit history's and credentials on wallet addresses while keeping users data private. It will be able to compete on loans with banks internationally. $30 is low, I expect much much higher though maybe not this bull run.
I can't tell you what to do with your money but I can say that means that the guy who correctly called the 2008 Housing Crisis is buetting all of his money on a market meltdown within the next few weeks or months.
Gold and silver and crypto like BTC and Cardano are.much better investments imo.
As a speculative gamble, sure. Bet some spending money on it.
As an investment, the position is a bet against the market as a whole. So the priority would be to take profit and lighten positions that you already hold.
tl;dr Shorting derivatives is not a game for newbies, so if you don't own stock yet, dont start your portolio with this play.
So you say betting on the complete collapse of the financial markets in 2 weeks is trying to fix it. Unlike a doomer who thinks the market is crashing in two weeks but isn't betting on it is a real doomer?
We don't know if he is betting on it happening in 2 weeks or a few months, you are dramatizing there.
The doomer is someone who bitches that NOTHING can ever be fixed and the human race is fucked.
A complete market crash won't end humanity, it will allow for a reset of elites. The ones in control today won't be the same ones in a couple of years.
You are also gonna feel it by not affording to go out to your favorite gay wine bar but you'll get your freedoms back.
A new market will be made and my bet is crypto will have a lot to do with it. Namely Cardano and Bitcoin. More freedoms and new types of business models can be made with these and can allow for the economy to expand further while putting a pin in a lot of the corruption.
Physical gold and silver will also spike up first and the payday from paper gold and silver popping will be glorious.
Quit being whiny and start planning for The Crash. NCSWIC
For the financially uninitiated, this means a billionaire financing expert is willing to bet 93% of all the money he has in stock markets that SHTF there, and soon.
MB is an Oracle. Dude has functional Aspergers. He is fearless, because his mind doesn't process fear like normal humans do. He is free from most irrational emotion which sets his mind free to become a living quantum computer. I was following him BEFORE the 2008 crash. He was crying foul in 2006-2007. If he puts 1.6 Billion in play … dont bet against him. Just dont. Its a very bad idea.
Whoa. Wait. This is the schizo that predicted the housing crisis in 2008 and made billions off it.
Yep, that's the guy
https://files.catbox.moe/he4yax.mp4
The Big Short (2015) - Dr Michael Burry analyzes Subprime MBSs (Feat. Margot Robbie) [HD 1080p]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-OzBI2r0Xb8
I just watched the movie an hour ago. If he was depicted accurately, this is big.
Conversely... A movie was made about him. Don't doubt he is cabal. Cabal destroys markets, like stealing the honey from the bees.
That is correct my good sir.
I'm seeing posts saying this is not what he did
https://twitter.com/fundiescapital/status/1691129332398206976?t=k7LIQAGpiDbVvLGJShclKA&s=19
$886mm is 2mm shares represented by options x SPY price. ($443 as of June 30, 2023).
they might be $300 strike price in December. Those trade for $.78. So his actual investment in those puts is $1.5mm, not the $886mm. 13F reporting quirk.
"notional" value is what that is called ;-)
I believe options trader call them 'units' They might be long on individual stocks as a hedge fund, but then they will buy cheap 25% out of the money puts [units] as an insurance policy in case of a major correction or downturn
That guy said “might be” … It “might be” a strike of $900 that expires next week.
MB is likely not going to STRIKE more than 80% of current Close, and wont risk pissing away monster premium decay. I for one would love to know what it actually is.
A look back at The Big Short when Michael Burry was buying Credit Default Swaps.
Note: Right now he is not buying Credit Default Swaps, we are much farther ahead than that. He is putting his whole capital on the line to short NASDAQ and S&P 500
https://files.catbox.moe/he4yax.mp4
Love that movie
when do the options expire?
Don't know, haven't seen that yet.
If SHTF then the stock market won’t matter. Only thing that will matter is food fuel ammo and etc
Gold and silver and crypto will still matter, you just want to get away from the city where you have runaway "joggers" burning down homes and businesses.
If it collapses that bad who would be leftto pay him what he is due? Again, financially illiterate here.
If he shorted the market, that means he borrowed shares of the market indexes and sold them immediately in anticipation of the price going lower in the future. If the stock market crashes, he can buy them up for cheap and make profit.
However I'm not exactly sure if he did this because if it's leveraged then it'll be more complicated than this.
Burry initiated short position(s) on Tesla before or around early December 2020, according to a now-deleted tweet[24][25] and likely added to his short positions[26][27] after the market cap of Tesla surpassed that of Facebook. Burry predicted Tesla stock would collapse like the housing bubble,[27] saying that "my last Big Short got bigger and Bigger and BIGGER" and taunted Tesla bulls to 'enjoy it while it lasts.'[26] In May 2021, it was reported that he held puts on over 800,000 shares of Tesla.[28] In October 2021, after a 100% rise in Tesla's stock value, he revealed he was no longer shorting it.[29] During the second quarter of 2021, he has reported to hold puts on almost 31 million dollars on the ARKK ETF innovation index managed by Ark Invest.[30]
93% of Michael Burry's portfolio is short market indexes 😬
https://nitter.1d4.us/FinanceLancelot/status/1691124635620855816
These aren't credit default swaps where you pay month fees. He's bet his firms entire holdings.
MICHAEL BURRY'S SCION ASSET MANAGEMENT DISSOLVES SHARE STAKE IN ALIBABA
https://nitter.nl/Fxhedgers/status/1691124149861961731
I trade options/futures, and hold a few long positions on a few index funds.
I thought I woke up in a dream seeing the headlines of MB moving against the market.
Now I'm sweaty.
I thought it was all piss until he took a position. Now Aug 22 doesn't seem so far away.
Going to be a hot August.
Why August 22 if I may ask? Is that when your options expire or Michael Burry, or something else?
BRICS currency meeting in SA is on the 22nd. GOLD WILL END THE FED
https://m.jpost.com/advisor/money/brics-summit-on-august-22nd-is-investing-in-gold-ira-a-wise-move-752060
Just a date I've been seeing being kicked around on back channels.
Ah yeah makes sense. I doubt it'll happen that day but we'll see.
China is also collapsing completely right now.
@FrogNews
This is a high conviction bet. Options have an expiration date, meaning if the drop doesn't happen in a specific time frame, he loses.
By most metrics, markets are overvalued. However markets can remain irrational longer than even Michael Bury can remain solvent. Let's see.
https://nitter.1d4.us/FrogNews/status/1691164802821849088
That is 100% correct. Quite frankly, I dont think we’ve had true price discovery of any asset in decades. The valuation models are inflated by artificially low ‘risk free rates’. Hell … the Fed can now open the window and let banks loan all they need to “investment banks” who then pump that free cash into equity markets (using any one of a hundred special purpose vehicles).
Michael Burry Loads Up On $1.6BN Notional Worth Of S&P, Nasdaq Puts; Goes Long Japan Stock Market
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/michael-burry-loads-16bn-notional-worth-sp-nasdaq-puts-goes-long-japan
Burry's holdings
https://nitter.1d4.us/zerohedge/status/1691176846300160001
Remember he called the housing bubble too soon and almost went bankrupt
Still a genius
“…We live in an era of fraud…” — Mark Baum, The Big Short
And apparently it’s seeped into our political system, and courts. MSM is still the prostitute. Not much has gotten better, or safer, from fraud. It’s just gotten better at conning people.
This is IMHO
SQQQ is a 3x leveraged eft that is SHORT the QQQ. Buying puts in SQQQ is a bullish position on the market not bearish.
The Puts are on QQQ
T:hat's what I get for reading this on my phone in dark mode. Sorry about that
So I haven't done enough stock trading to know what you're saying.
What is an 8/5 MES/MNQ split?
Reading some articles on this
FAQ: Options on Micro E-mini S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures - CME Group
https://www.cmegroup.com/education/articles-and-reports/faq-options-on-micro-e-mini-s-p-500-and-nasdaq-100-futures.html
Is it possible to have a somewhat even /MES & /MNQ pair?
https://www.reddit.com/r/FuturesTrading/comments/v379ic/is_it_possible_to_have_a_somewhat_even_mes_mnq/
Thanks! Post up any info you find interesting or send them to me, I'm pretty interested in those details.
I'm much more experienced on the crypto side. I haven't gone in the red at all but that's because I bought in before everyone else. If theres anything you want to learn about crypto lmk, especially Cardano. I'm learning to be a Dev in that ecosystem and I keep up to date with major projects, news, and technical details on how everything works.
Look at Cantillons Essay and Uneducated Economist
King Dollar The Destroyer, Proving Its Resilience | Uneducated Economist
Dollar will go up, up, up then fall hard.
Look for "dollar denominated debt in foreign non-banking entities". I forgot where I can find this but it is out there. This will dive hard before the dollar dives hard.
Did you mean Cardano?
Don't use Robinhood to buy crypto man and dont use your phone to trade crypto. Ive known hedge fund traders that lost their crypto dickin around on their phone.
Always store your crypto long term in a wallet. Hardware wallet is best. I expect the government will get rid of exchanges at some point and Robinhood has a history of screwing over its customers and freezing assets.
I'd recommend Kraken, Kucoin, or Coinbase for trading.
Cardano and Atala PRISM will change the financial industry completely. It will allow dapps implementing credit history's and credentials on wallet addresses while keeping users data private. It will be able to compete on loans with banks internationally. $30 is low, I expect much much higher though maybe not this bull run.
Does this mean I should be buying puts on spy and qqq?
i just reached out to my broker, lets see what he says.
I can't tell you what to do with your money but I can say that means that the guy who correctly called the 2008 Housing Crisis is buetting all of his money on a market meltdown within the next few weeks or months.
Gold and silver and crypto like BTC and Cardano are.much better investments imo.
As a speculative gamble, sure. Bet some spending money on it.
As an investment, the position is a bet against the market as a whole. So the priority would be to take profit and lighten positions that you already hold.
tl;dr Shorting derivatives is not a game for newbies, so if you don't own stock yet, dont start your portolio with this play.
Nice comms, Burry.
It's at least a week old news
Well no shit. I posted it 12 days ago.
This Doomer is gonna pay and does.
I wouldn't call someone betting against the stock market a doomer.
Someone that says everything is fucked and theres never going to be a way to fix it is a doomer.
So you say betting on the complete collapse of the financial markets in 2 weeks is trying to fix it. Unlike a doomer who thinks the market is crashing in two weeks but isn't betting on it is a real doomer?
We don't know if he is betting on it happening in 2 weeks or a few months, you are dramatizing there.
The doomer is someone who bitches that NOTHING can ever be fixed and the human race is fucked.
A complete market crash won't end humanity, it will allow for a reset of elites. The ones in control today won't be the same ones in a couple of years.
You are also gonna feel it by not affording to go out to your favorite gay wine bar but you'll get your freedoms back.
A new market will be made and my bet is crypto will have a lot to do with it. Namely Cardano and Bitcoin. More freedoms and new types of business models can be made with these and can allow for the economy to expand further while putting a pin in a lot of the corruption.
Physical gold and silver will also spike up first and the payday from paper gold and silver popping will be glorious.
Quit being whiny and start planning for The Crash. NCSWIC
u/#lightning
Elliott Wave Theory : Rules, Guidelines and Basic Structures
https://elliottwave-forecast.com/elliott-wave-theory/
This is what you mean by c-wave right? C-Wave stands for Corrective Wave?
Lol gay wine bar. You are choking on the D Doomer boi
What I'm saying is you're a faggot.
Lol. You mad Doomer.
Where did you get two weeks from??