What we know: Archegos went under in 2021 because of their GME short position. That basket of swaps was passed on to Credit Suisse, who then collapsed in 2023, and has since been absorbed by Swiss banking behemoth UBS. So now UBS is in the hot seat. They're a "too big to fail" and the Swiss gov is sweating bullets.
We also know: Someone with deep pockets has been spending tens of millions of dollars the past few days, buying GME $20 call options with a June 21 expiration. There are 485k call option contracts (48.5 million shares) with expiration dates ranging from May 31 to July 19.
What we also know: GME executed an ATM 45 million share offering Friday. We don't know if those shares were sold on the open market, or sold in a private deal, to an undisclosed buyer.
Here's the speculative part, so grain of salt, etc: Supposedly, a UBS trader claims that UBS is the buyer for "more than 2/3" of those 485k contracts, and they're going to exercise them, to buy their way out of the Archegos>Credit Suisse>UBS black hole. He states that buying that many shares would put UBS above the SEC's insider limit of 10% ownership, so that's why GME issued the 45m share offering today, in a friendly deal, to increase the float just enough so that UBS can skirt under the 10% rule.
If this speculation is true, then what? Hard to say, but consider that UBS is just one of many big money players holding a GME toxic short position, and the MOASS thesis has always been that whoever acts quickly and gets out first (buys enough shares to close their short position) can survive. It will cost them greatly, but they can survive, while most of the rest are then screwed. Imagine Musical Chairs, but UBS wipes out most of the chairs in one fell swoop, in the first go around, and all the other players are left without a seat.
What that scenario could mean for shareholders: The large buys by UBS would raise the share price, which would then put the current (huge) option chain ITM (in the money) which would trigger a cascading series of higher price jumps (like going up stair steps) as each higher strike price then becomes ITM. And all this is very conveniently timed, because CAT (Consolidated Audit Trail) oversight goes into effect on May 31.
There's no way to know yet if this UBS rumor is legit, but from what's been happening the over the past few days it does seem very plausible, and if it's legit then we will know soon.
hodl
DRS is dynamite 🧨💥🍌🦍💎🤲🚀🪐🌌
Did you see that the GME stock price immediately jumped more than 10% after hours yesterday? This is very unusual.
This theory might account for that price move.
GME has 2 billion dollars cash in the bank. There's no stopping Gamestop. Can't stop won't stop.
And no debt. And a highly ethical, hard working, good natured board of directors that is actually working for their shareholders.
I sure hope so, these diamond hands are calloused.
AMC noob here, similarly on our side the current thesis is we have multi-year call options from the last run up that are set to expire soon. So they’d have to buy the entire float again for a 5th time+ to keep their scheme going.
AMC shares virtually nothing with GameStop in regard to conditions, community support, direct registration, or most importantly management/ownership.
Ryan Cohen of GameStop takes zero salary and instead chooses to get paid in stocks meaning if the company does good he makes money. The company does not do well he does not make money.
AMC on the other hand, when they're stock price went up there bored gave themselves all fat bonuses instead of putting that money back in towards the company and using it to innovate.
There's really not much of a path forward for movie theaters. GameStop on the other hand has a rapidly growing multi-billion dollar online gaming industry that it's actively tapping into plus some exciting partnerships currently and more on the horizon.
Dump the AMC and put everything into GameStop as soon as possible.
To add to this, AMC was never a part of the short basket that people have been talking about for years.
AMCX was. Look it up. Melvin Capital was short AMCX (American Classic Movies Channel), not AMC.
The media did a switcheroo on everyone when they noticed that their Apollo Group boy was the CEO of AMC.
People also did not realize that AMC was one of the biggest LONGS for Citadel from April 2021 (what happened in May 2021 to AMC?) until September 2022. They even congratulated AMC on the opening of Dr. Strange: Multiverse of Madness.
Also notice how whenever AMC was going to take off, AA would announce a dilution. Almost 100% of the time. He would not even wait for upward momentum. AMC begins to move? Dilute immediately.
I sold my AMC position for a huge profit when it spiked in 2021 and never looked back. That profit was rolled into GME.
Likewise, didn’t Trump waive, or donate, his salary as President, because he put saving our country above making money?
He wanted to waive it, but that would be illegal, so he donates it to various charities, or even to the government.
Something about Stocks and winning a crooked game.....
Rather than creating a parallel market in an already saturated field, I wish they' purchase an already profitable company like Steam. That'd be some good action to expand their operations and profitability!
AMC is designed to keep GME down. Sorry for your loss
I see the after hours movement. I see MSM trying to claim this is why the stock went UP!
Now, a non ape might believe that, but then you look at the AMC chart and it shot up in after hours too.
Do they think we're stupid?
Never heard of CAT before. Look who doesn't like it! https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/citadel-securities-trade-body-sue-us-sec-over-consolidated-audit-trail-3201372
Also, the securities market goes to 1 day settlement on May 28. The settlement time makes it harder for little people to trade all day like the big firms.
Check out this theory as well:
https://old.reddit.com/r/Teddy/comments/1d0dcko/could_this_alleged_deal_with_ubs_be_the_birth_of/
This may lead to Teddy the bank.
Does your post tie into the 4chan theory?
I see this post:
https://old.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/1d0997n/ubs_is_not_closing_their_position_here_is_why/
This stuff gets confusing for the layman (myself included.)
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/calloption.asp
A call option gives the buyer (owner) the right to buy the stock at the strike price.
The person who creates the call option and sells it is gambling that the stock price will not go up past the price.
If the price stays low when the option expires, then they make a bunch of free money.
If the price goes up, then they owe the difference between the strike price and the stock price if the buyer exercises the option. Suppose the stock price goes up to $21 and the strike price is $20. In this case, the seller needs to come up with $1 per option sold. But suppose it goes up to $30. In this case, the seller needs TEN TIMES as much money to cover the options. You can see where this is going -- every small increase over the strike price MULTIPLIES the amount of money the seller of the call option needs to cover it, and potentially, the price of the stock can go infinitely high!
However, for owners of the stock who believe the price will not go up, selling call options is a good way to generate money. If the price goes up past the strike price, you lose the shares of stock and thus the profits that would've been made if you simply held the stocks. But if it does not, you make money on the side.
If you are confident that the price will go up past the strike price before they expire, then you should buy them. At worst, you lose all the money you used to buy the options because it doesn't go up. At best, you make tons and tons of money.
FURTHERMORE -- THIS IS IMPORTANT: If you own a call option, you can exercise the option even if the price is LOWER than the strike price. You pay a premium for the right to buy a share of the stock versus just buying it on the market. NORMALLY, NO ONE WOULD EVER DO THIS BECAUSE IT IS STUPID. But for impossible to buy stocks like GME, this means that the buyers of the call options may just be super desperate to get a hold of shares of the stock, and are going to exercise those shares whether or not the price goes up past the strike price. Remember, the seller of the call option is promising that they are able to come up with shares of the company at the strike price when the option expires!
So possibly, what is happening is GME is selling call options, desperate investment banks are buying them up, and GME is going to be paid a premium price for shares of the company, ABOVE MARKET RATE, because that is the TRUE value of the stock. If GME were to issue call options at $50, $100, and $1,000 and people still bought them up and exercised them regardless of the price of the stock, then this is a way to bypass the market shenanigans and get a fair price for the stock. Unfortunately, it means those of us who are HODLING will get screwed, since the investment banks will get their stocks regardless of whether we sell or not. Once the banks get their stocks, then there will no longer be any pressure to push the stock price up, and whoever is HODLING will get screwed if the true value of the stock goes down.
Option contracts are not sold by the traded companies.
Secondly, your comments about shareholders getting screwed couldn’t be more off base. GME is a unique situation where bad actors (corrupt hedge funds) have “naked shorted” way more shares than actually exist. For lack of a better term, counterfeit shares. Because they weren’t able to achieve their goal of driving GME into bankruptcy, they are now trapped as it’s IMPOSSIBLE to buy back enough shares to close their short positions… because not enough (legitimate) shares exist. Long story short, they are fucked, and shareholders are in control.
Why would the investment banks buy call options above market rate when they can still buy genuine GME shares for 22 dollars each. Is it because they can't buy enough GME shares quickly enough?
IMO It is a planned operation. If the OPs theory is correct, USB will figure out a way to push GME stock higher, thus moving their options into the money. They can than sell those options to pay close out their naked shorts. It appears that this theory, which sounds plausible, can only be used for a limited amount of naked short covering. My thought is that USB, saving there butts, will drive GME stock skyward. USB will be ought of the naked short business for GME, and maybe a few others, but the rest will go the way of Archegos.
If someone is manufacturing call options when they do not own the shares directly, and the options are in the money, then they are screwed. They have to go to the marketplace, buy actual shares, driving up the price even higher...
If the banks are doing this, they are screwed doubly so, as they still have naked shorts they need to cover. Unless they had some form of a guarantee that the options will never ever be in the money... in which case there is massive fraud and cheating going on and heads will roll.
Call options are a zero sum market. The options themselves can always be sold back into the market. If the holder waits until the expiration date, and the options are in the money, than they will have to by the stock at the strike price and sell the stock back into the market. If the holder is out of the money, the options expire worthless.
Thanks fren!
That's the thing. Genuine GME shares don't exist in the wild. They manufactured fake shares, sold them, with the idea that they could easily buy them back when needed. The thing is, when they went to buy them back, there were not enough real shares in the world, and the price started to spike.
The true price of GME, I believe, is probably somewhere in the millions of dollar range. If the banks never sold shares that don't exist, they wouldn't be in this mess. But they did. Now they have to pay whatever people are willing to part with. For me, I think it's probably $15M a share. Inflation adjusted. HODL!
It could be part of the deal.
I have no idea what I just skimmed
Well, let' s think this through.
If this solved UBS' s woes then at a certain point, they will want to exit that market, dumping such shares on the market, causing the opposite effect, stock price decrease.
O, it would then come in handy if someone would have the options at a lower price, no?
To issue more stock to facilitate UBS, the question arises: Is GME in the business of investment banking? Why would UBS' s troubles be GME' s?
What does the SEC have on GME or it's officers that causes such a nicety?
In effect, it only seems that current actual stockholders may profit from a higher price temporarily.
Now what would happen? Are the HODLERS still HODLERS and in the game? Or are they being shafted by GME as a thank you for keeping the stock afloat?
They can’t dump the shares on the market they owe them to someone else…. Also debit Susie was short over 210 million shares 45million is not even 1/4 of what they need to return.
There’s 87billion with a b dollars worth of swap data for GME…. Billion
That’s not how shorting works. When you short a stock you borrow the share and sell it. To close the short you must buy back the share and return it to whom you borrowed it from. When UBS exercises these calls they will only be in possession of the shares until they close the short which is usually a short period of time. Whomever has lent out these shares has been holding for a long time and likely won’t be selling them while the price is squeezing.
Saying all this, those were highly probable naked shorts meaning the shares never existed in the first place. So when the naked shirt is closed out the share will just cease to exist.
Literally nothing can stop what is coming.
GME did NOT execute a r45 million share offering! get your facts straight! They filed a ‘MIXED SHELF OFFERING’ reserving the RIGHT to sell 45m shares in the next 3 years This is different from executing the sale. when you say this incorrectly it makes me doubt the entire validity of your post and the facts leading to your hypothesis. Here’s my receipts - where are yours? https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/s/TarRMiIUrF
Trust me, FuckNewsom pays very close attention to GME.
I mean damn, the company themselves announced it sold it's 45m share offering yesterday.
https://news.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gamestop-completes-market-equity-offering-program-1
But you were right yesterday morning.
edit: GameStop intends to use the net proceeds from the ATM Program for general corporate purposes, which may include acquisitions and investments.
Haha, yep 😂
Things are evolving so rapidly, that we can’t really blame him for being several hours behind on the news.
Facts
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326380/000119312524141200/d815176d424b5.htm
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1326380/000132638024000020/gme-20240524.htm
What I want to know is the who/what/when/where of this sale that legally had to be an "at the market offering", yet somehow landed at the commsy price of $20.741 per share?
I also think it's interesting that Jeffries is involved here as they are the firm that has that long-standing short position on deleted shares that they refuse to close.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-27/short-seller-s-winning-bet-means-permanent-payments-to-jefferies
I believe Jeffries is a good player in the GME/BBBY play.