⚠️ SOMEONE SOMEWHERE HAS TO PAY A HIGH PRICE FOR BANK OF JAPAN INCOMPETENCE ⚠️
https://twitter.com/DarioCpx/status/1717334125223538878
THINGS ARE SO BAD THAT $JPY WILL KEEP DEPRECIATING IF JAPAN RAISES RATES. Why? Because they created a giant system that can only survive on cheap and abundant liquidity, a system that includes both internal and foreign financial companies. So if the #BOJ increases the cost of funding, they will need to print even more $JPY to fill the larger hole created in banks' balance sheets both inside and outside Japan.
Part 2: the total amount outstanding lent overseas by Japanese Financial Institutions was equivalent to a mind-boggling 144,492,600,000,000 $JPY 😨
And that's only one part of the story. The second part is called "Cross Currency Swap"...
https://twitter.com/DarioCpx/status/1717725925125812613
...for every 1 $JPY borrowed to put in place a carry trade, you have at least 3.5X times (and not 4 because risk is never hedged completely) that volume on top of that in terms of derivative notional! Therefore, there are potentially 3.5 TRILLION $USD eqv. linked to the $JPY carry trade globally.
Part 3: 🚨WHILE INVESTORS DREAM OF SEASONALITY THEY DONT SEE THE BANK OF JAPAN #BOJ NIGHTMARE INCOMING! 🚨
https://twitter.com/DarioCpx/status/1719161799260676152
Furthermore, a good chunk of the global financial system is where it is today thanks to the endless $JPY money printing over the years and the insane scale of the $JPY carry trade. I have already pointed out many times how the #BOJ managed to create the worst possible environment for the $JPY Carry Traders, but now we are extremely close to the moment it all starts falling apart and people might begin to scramble to limit their losses.
How will a $JPY carry trade unwinding work? Follow me:
1 - First, the foreign assets in $USD $EUR but also $AUD , $NZD and $GBP will have to be liquidated. A good chunk of these are government bonds, but a big portion are megacap #stocks like $AAPL or $MSFT .
Imagine selling government bonds right now when most of them are trading at deep discounts below par and as a “seller”...
2 - After selling assets at a deep loss, now the carry trader needs to close its hedging. This means returning the same amount of $USD they borrowed at the very beginning of the trade to the broker that will deliver $JPY to them. Now, here is the big problem, carry traders are deep underwater on their hedging too at the moment because of $JPY (since they were “long” the currency as a hedge) and the Japan yields (since everyone didn't bother to pay extra to get a fixed rate $JPY funding while...
Woah! Great find anon!
I'm finishing up my last semester of grad school and looking for a job 🤞 so can't make it but definitely would be interested in 2025 onwards!
😆 The soyboys gotta eat too
Ah thank you! I found it!
Somebody posted up an old History Book of Lincolns that had Amendment XIII TONA. I can't find it anymore but I was wondering if it was you or would you know where to find it?
I believe the 2nd crash will be when the Reverse Repo is wiped out sometime January-February. The Reverse Repo is what is stopping Treasury Yields from shooting up faster and where the US Treasury is dumping all their debt.
George Gammon thinks there will be a crash by March 11, 2024 when the Federal Reserves Bank Term Lending Program ends (allows banks to borrow with Treasuries as collateral at 100% their initial value and not current market value).
The first crash is uncertain. My guess was end of October-November so it may still happen in November.
There is a
- lag effect from treasuries going under we haven't seen yet
- Japanese Yen going above 150 yen/dollar ending The Carry Trade and pushing them towards sellibg US Treasuries
- Record loans from people across the board
- Record delinquencies happening as well
- unknown factors with the war(s) in the middle east, Ukraine, and possibly China invading Taiwan
- Commercial real estate going bust for big banks
- A govt that has given every indication it intends to spend more.
The first crash i expect is gonna be wall street realizing the market is too risky and getting out. Banks will be selling stocks, gold/silver futures, and crypto to stay afloat (btw highly recommend looking at Cardano, there's more than Bitcoin out there and this one is very promising).
The time periods in speculating for the crash from FinTwit and Youtubers I've followed a few years have gone from "the crash will be a few months from now", to "a month from now", to "next week possibly next weekday".
This last Friday, you could easily argue the only thing keeping the S&P 500 up was the Amazon earnings report which drove the stock up 7%. Everything that wasn't tech (and even most of tech) is floundering or shooting lower.
98% of all gains in the s&p 500 in the last few years have been from the 13 biggest stocks right now. They are all tech and almost all on the AI craze which is centrally around Nvidia GPUs. New tech is also the thing your least likely to buy when your worried about food and having a roof over your head.
Also one other thing to think about: if money in the economy goes to treasury bonds because the treasury bond yields are so high compared to Federal Reserve base rate, there's little to no money in the economy for loans so it causes businesses to fail and the economy to crash. If the Federal Reserve keeps raising rates to be above the Treasury Bond yield, it will also crash the economy. Its a downward spiral all caused by government spending.
They go hand in hand up to a certain point.
The majority of the public (especially older folks) will choose gold/silver over bitcoin until they realize how much more convenient it is and that they can have the all the positives of our modern world without the negatives of fiat.
If you read my post "this is how I think the next Great Depression might start", I think both will take a tumble during the 1st crash.
Gold/silver will have their major spike up in the 2nd crash a few months later. Crypto will possibly go up as well but not so much.
Crypto will have its major spike up when the Federal Reserve starts buying Treasury Bonds directly from the Treasury (right now Treasury bonds have to be sold first before Federal Reserve buy on the bond market) and/or introduces CBDCs. Then it'll be a battle royale of which Cryptos are the best as deemed by the public.
Silver is definitely gonna give a crazy good return on investment, I don't think you can lose with it at the end of the day.
I do think there will be a bit more devaluing with paper silver price before the 2nd crash but the returns after paper silver disappears will be so enormous it's worth investing in now.
This to me just tells me he's gonna incorporate Dogecoin into Twitter, not necessarily CBDC platform but a crypto platform.
I added price change, do you know somewhere I can find overall volume of gold/silver sales?
Thank you for reading, I hope it's helpful!
Crypto doesn't need backing of something physical if it has all the properties of a sound currency.
-
Unit of Account - Consistency in measuring prices
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Medium of Exchange
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Store of Value
Fiat money does not have a good store of value.
Gold and silver can be said to be a poor medium of exchange because of transportation costs (unless local). Gold and silver is not good for long distance trading and a country doing business solely using precious metals as a currency will degrade dramatically because of all the extra resources in security, transportation, and time to process transactions.
Also, the stupidity of crypto or fiat being valuable because it is "backed by something physical" is that you have to trust a 3rd party is correctly reporting those numbers all the time. Unless you have a reasonable method, that 3rd party reporting is always centralized and at some point when given that kind of power, they always eventually fudge the numbers in some way to gain more power. This is also the biggest problem with trusting 3rd parties (aka Banks) with physical gold and silver.
A Crypto just has to be accepted by people to use for it to have value. It needs a finite amount, needs to be scalable, secure, decentralized, have low fees, and open source code for everyone to read.
Physical gold and silver will push our civilization and resources we can use backwards. Crypto propels us beyond our limits. You are about to find out what a difference that is.
Cmon mehn! I tot it was tha door handle.
- Bowman (2023)
Not sure about GME but silver will shoot up.
That's a pretty good plan and much harder to evaluate. Of course ideally being good in both is
How do you go about grading the different projects?
Glad I can contribute something 😁
The metal value would be worth more which is why they retain their value compared to paper.
If the physical metal of the coin retains its value or increases in value, the coin will also still be good too!
Ooh so lucky! I am envious of you, I think you will be relatively cozy during this time.
Food/Bullets/Resources for survival.
Yessir!
https://greatawakening.win/p/17rT26WWmt/jpy-carry-trade--the-biggest-fin/c/
The world js about to get really crazy really fast if Japan goes under