For those tracking precious metals, keep a close eye on the Russian Ruble rate in $USD over the next few days/weeks. Keep in mind that Putin has pegged the ruble exchange rate at 5000 rubles per gram of gold for the next couple of months.
There are 31.1034768 grams in one troy ounce. As such, the exchange rate for a one troy ounce of gold garnering you 155,517 Rubles.
After peaking at 145 Rubles to $1 dollar (145:1) a few weeks ago at the start of the conflict, it's now approaching where its stable range was prior at about around 72-77:1 range. The ratio went as low as 74:1 last night, creating a brief arbitrage opportunity for savvy traders to sell gold in rubles amounting to $2101 USD/oz versus the present CRIMEX spot price in the neighborhood of $1950/oz.
Today the ruble:$USD ratio has been fluctuating wildly in the 77-83 range. With Putin's most recent threat to cut off the gas to Europe tomorrow, I would imagine we can expect some more wild fluctuations as the international banksters fight to keep the ratio around 80:1, while sovereign western European nations scramble to get their hands on more Rubles.
Here's where banksters need to hold the ruble at to maintain the illusory CRIMEX spot price, somewhere in the 79-80:1 range.
155,517/83 = $1873.70
155,517/80 = $1943.97
155,517/79 = $1968.57
155,517/74 = $2101.58
Assuming the spot price of gold maintains the $1950 range, any slippage in the ratio below 79:1 will cause another arbitrage opportunity for international traders selling gold into Russia for rubles, than trading their highly in-demand rubles for Euros or $USD. Last night there was nearly a $150/oz profit margin at 74:1.
For those interested, most of the online currency converters are static, not reflecting the wildly fluctuating rates right now. Here's a good currency conversion tracker that provides up-to-the-minute values if you click the "1M" chart view -> https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/currency
If the CRIMEX, CME, LBMA, etc. continue their shenanigans with MASSIVE SUPPRESSION of the precious metals prices in order to maintain the fiat $USD value deception, then gold is going to start flowing to Russia in never before seen amounts. And if they don't, then the spot gold price is going to start rising like never before. This could get interesting!
Could this be how "Gold destroys the Fed"? Inquiring minds wanna know.
Morpheus11, What is your recommendation on playing this market?
Rabidred
It's a tough call. If the banksters defend the ruble:$USD price in the 79-80:1 range, there will certainly be cracks appearing somewhere else, which I can't guess.
For the next 3 months anyway, with Putin's guaranteed gold-to-ruble exchange rate, I'd say it's a no-brainer to own some gold and rubles. :)
I've been eyeing gold mining companies after hearing this news, AEM and the likes.
On another note u/Morpheus11 should post more market analysis here, this is a really good summary of market action.
Check out Ditch The Deepstat's posts on reddit wallstreetsilver he is super knowledgeable and a tremendous analyst of the metals banks and exchange place.
Here is his most recent
https://www.reddit.com/r/Wallstreetsilver/comments/tt9lm3/jp_morgan_after_being_the_biggest_silver_loser_in/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share
Nice link, thanks!
That guy posts daily, often even more detailed. Amazingly brilliant mind. Gotta love his username too.
Also want to shout out Wallstreetsilver and to say that even though gold looks to do well, silver still has plenty of fundamentals behind it pointing to an improving gold/silver ratio currently ~80:1 to head towards ~55:1 regardless of whether gold price rises
Been following the squeeze over a year. Have a few hundred Oz myself but the price is lower than it was all of last year, really. It's frustrating but the more people stack, the closer we get. It's the physical equivalent of GME
I am trying to understand his posts. Looks like I need to take a crash course in Comex terminology and process to fully understand what all the things like "gold arriving", "inactive month", etc means. Worth investing the time on it.
Inactive months are more tha that don't generally see as much volume in trade. They are usually the same year by year.
Gold arriving is usually when the metals banks move some of their stock into the COMEX vaults, usually to replace gold that has been delivered to customers demanding delivery of gold they are entitled to.
The ponsi scheme is that when people buy gold in "unallocated vaults" they don't buy actual gold, rather the promise that if they demand delivery they will get gold.
So if there are 100oz in unallocated pool, the banks will often sell that same gold to several customers and they all own it thinking it's theirs. Typically no one demands delivery of large amounts of metals because they want it to be "kept safe"
That fractional reserve dealing makes the price of gold be kept down because on paper it shows that so much has been sold (when in reality it's the same gold being sold again and again having multiple unwitting owners).
Banks also sell their own gold to each other (without ever moving it, just changing the owner of it on paper) to keep prices down.
However the last year, many people wisened up and have been demanding delivery of silver and gold, causing the banks to have to put in their own stock to replace what has been delivered. As people keep demanding delivery, banks are getting their bluff called.
Of course they can always default and settle for cash as per their contract to those demanding delivery of non existing stock, but that will blow the lid off the scheme.
For bullion buyers in the retail side (people buying coins, rounds, bars, etc) they aren't directly affecting the comex as the comex deals with contracts (5000oz of silver per contract) and they get supply from producers. The coin buyers are retail and its a different side of things, but the more goes to retailers, the less there is for COMEX and the British and Australian equivalents.
There were massive shortages on the retail end and the Perth Mint (Australia gov mint) was set back MONTHS and set limits on retail purchases but swore they had the supply. They resorted to buying silver from China at one point to keep up lmao.
Then they released a picture of some guy standing by some bars and used that as proof that they have plenty of silver. He became a meme.
HYMC
The mines own the rights but one plan I read said theybwould leave the gold in the ground. They can assay and account for most of rrh gold while it's still in the ground. Safest storage ever.
Got some gold, source for rubles?
Our benevolent leaders have banned FOREX trading of rubles for US Citizens. You'd have to look at alternative methods, like finding another trading brokerage in another country, for example.
I do believe owning either gold or rubles is equally beneficial in this next 90 day period. I can't say where the ruble value will go after the 90-day peg, but I can say that gold will ultimately maintain its value in the long run!
I don't think Russia by itself could break the fed. But BRICS could. By all jumping on the gold standard and tanking the petro-dollar to gold they could break the fed.
If the Fed does break, which I think we all want, then we must also prepare to survive the fall out from that as well.
Amen. All their wars and hurt and pain and heartache. All that evil??? To watch it all burn down to never come back? With them powerless? Are you kidding me????? To witness justice for the billions who couldn't? Lord LET ME EYES BEAR WITNESS FOR YOU TO SHARE TO ALL THE SOULS IN HEAVEN. ALL THE SOULS LORD. I WANT TO BE THEIR INFITNIYK RESOLUTION CAMERA, LORD, TO THE GREAT JUSTICE EVENT. II WANT THEM TO SEE IT TO KNOW IT. I WILL REQUIRE NO NOURISHMENT. OTHER THAN KNOWING I AM DELIVERING SWEET SWEET JUSTICE TO THOSE RIGHTEOUS WHO WERE SO VICIOUSLY ABUSED SO MIGHTILY. I ASK YOU THESE THINGS IN CHRIST'S NAME.
To put it another way, actually I think my high would be so high that at least for three months I wouldn't know what planet I was on. Could you imagine? Jesus' big old smile now shining down like the warm sun. Healing us. Healthy running laughing vibrant. Alive. Truly alive.
I LOVE YOU JESUS I SEE YOU SOON!
I have both the green and the red variety, we shall eat Dandelions, together. Strong.
If you want to be free, we have to endure this. I'd give my life to see them ended so my money of little value. Especially when it enslaves me to their system
With you Sir.
Keep stacking apes!
I agree, and well done on the calcs, to lay it all out.
I would like to add that this is buying opportunity, either in Gold, or Rubles.
GREAT analysis. PM market in the US is a total fraud, which is evident to anyone with any sense (not many). Imagine if Putin has pegged a higher Ruble rate per gram of cold. Could have made gold prices run, theoretically. Until derivatives of commodities are outlawed (they never will be), PMs will be a broken market. There are going to be some incredible arbitrage opertunities and possibly great options in the mining sector that could pay out insane amounts.
There's no way I'd sell my gold or silver at this point. If I had any that is. .
Me neither
Thank you for the simple Analysis. Been keeping an eye out on this for the last couple weeks. If you know how to or where to purchase Rubles would be great to know OR is it even legal in the States to purchase?
Pretty sure FOREX has been instructed by our benevolent leadership to halt ruble trading for US Citizens. Good times.
Buying gold is the way to go regardless...they both will rise in value together.
Nice research Pede. Bill Clinton is a rapist.
Ok I have an odd question I went to Russia in the late 90s and still have some rubles as cash left are they valued at current prices?
Yes. Cash which is legal tender has face value.
The current value of rubles compared to dollars is fluctuating wildly this past month. However the moves by Putin suggest the ruble is going to continue to gain value against the dollar, at least during the next 3 months while the 5000 rubles to a gram of gold peg remains in place. Who knows what will happen after that.
My advice would be to hold onto them at least through June.
This is very good post. I think they will do anything to keep fiat alive as long as possible. Russia will get gold but in the end FIAT is dead anyway. Gold shall destroy FED.
Cant buy Rubles anywhere. It’s BS.
Probably not. Probably have easy offshore access.
We want to break the Fed, but I don't think we want the Ruble, or Putin to gain ascendancy. He won't lead the world in freedom. Only the American people, along with freedom loving people everywhere, can do that. Don't sit around and hope Putin will do our dirty work for us. I remind you, they invented the system that is now trying to overtake us, and while they discontinued it themselves, it was because they realized from experience that communism simply doesn't work, and not because officials who worked under that system suddenly had a change of heart and wanted to spend the rest of their lives doing good.
I also want to see some consistency. If we are going to condemn our invasions of Iraq, and Afghanistan where we did actually overthrow evil dictatorships that were cruel to their people (yes I know we should not have been there for decades policing them, different issue), then I don't want to see celebration over Russia invading several of its neighbors over the same span. That is no better than use invading nations that did seek to harm us. It is clear that the Ukrainian people do not want their country carved up nor ruled by Russians.
Finally, yes I know our true battle is the people versus the Globalists, and Putin has been battling the globalists, while they have infiltrated our own government. We need to ally with Putin in that fight and respect his concerns regarding what has been happening in Ukraine, but don't root for or celebrate his ascendancy over the US. Prevent that. I know a lot of you seem to think we're being held captive by the dollar and its destruction will free you, but it is not so. You don't realize the benefits we get from the dollar being the world's reserve currency. We don't want that to end. Yes, let's end the Fed and get the globalists out or our country, but let's do it with strategic smart bomb strikes and not just drop a nuke on it so we don't also wipe out everything else around. Oh yea, and no matter what, you all are still going to have to make your mortgage payments.
I'm not a financial guy, but I buy a lot of silver every month and have for many years. What I'm seeing is that my family can replace the status quo. So be it. As my first order of business I would like to establish one thing... our mutha fkn right to party like it is 1585, cause we may have to back to that tech, but I'm down either way. Otherwise, carry on. Seriously, do not pay any attention to the dude behind the curtain. We don't.
;-) 1581................29th of July, to be precise.
How can they keep throwing paper money at gold and silver to suppress their breakout to the upside without killing themselves? Sure they can print more but it's too late for more printing.
The big banksters can invoke gold/silver contracts out of thin air, without needing any collateral on the CRIMEX. In the past year we've seen MASSIVE explosions in the total number of contracts being traded - to the tune or 100X+ what they've needed to suppress the markets in the past. So in short, there appears to be no limit to their ability to short the market.
However, what very few people talk about, for good reason, is that it's beyond obvious that all the big hedge funds, brokerage houses, mutual funds, etc. have CLEARLY all been given "an offer they can't refuse", to not purchase sizable amounts of gold/silver, lest they be, shall we say, not long for this world. This much is clear.
Warren Buffet purchased a sizable chunk of the silver market about 17 years ago. Not to long after, for no good reason, he unwound his position and nobody has dared do it again. The lesson was taught in 1980 when the Hunt brothers wisely cornered the silver market, only to see the SEC and COMEX change the rules on the futures markets in order to wipe the Hunt brothers out. Lesson learned.
The day the dam bursts is the same day us peon retail buyers will be forever closed-out of the market. It won't even take an hour. Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos could buy up the entire global retail gold & silver markets by themselves. Both retail gold and silver are minuscule markets in comparison to all the paper negotiable instruments out there. As Mike Maloney says, gold and silver will become "unafordium" and "unobtainium" for the majority. :)
1 million put-contracts at 1900 dollars + 950.000 call-contracts at 1850 dollars => down she goes.
Somebody is allowed to rollover .... finance, or find a well-intentioned FED window where some billions can be sourced.
However, there are only a couple of people who determine the price. Price discovery as mentioned above is a big big nono.
I agree that the question is valid: How long? We are moving into fiction economy territory.
It is strange. 30 years ago, the commie economy was a ghost and price discovery was impossible. Today we are at that point. Of course, one can expect the same outcome. A short but fast drop and a sudden stop.
oh yeah, the arbitrage will help sink the value of the dollar and euro,
How will this affect the price of bitcoin
Kek BTC is 90% speculation at this point and basically follows the market. It's a bubble.
Not a bubble. It’s highly volatile due to the relatively small market capitalization with zero market controls over it.
u/Zromrlhzrd , I don’t think this will affect the BTC directly, at least not yet. At the macro level, if BTC is used as a settlement layer, or at least ONE of the potential settlement methods (Russia said they would consider it), then BTC will blow up. Supply/Demand thing.
However, I think the best play right now for BTC, for the personal investor like yourself… try to get 1 BTC, and just hold it for 5-10 years.
I'm pissed I bought a BTC for 20k a while back and within some months it hit 60k. But I sold it the same night I bought it because I was drunk and was like "wait is this a bubble? I can't do this."
I also had btc when they were $2.50 over a decade ago for silk road purchases xD
Wow, $2.50! That’s OG-level fren… If only you bought $1000 worth and held it 🤣
Inwas gonna buy like 35 coins. I was like 18 and only interested in ordering LSD online xD
I asked my brother if I should throw $100 at BTC and hold. He's a wall street finance guy. He told me it's all BS, those crypto things are just a worthless fad.
🤬
Lmao bro we could've been friends. I was also ordering bomb needle point LSD and some dankkk purple haze off the Silk road using bitcoins i bought for around 100 to 200$ each, when i was 18 back in 2012-2013.
I was so mad I didn't keep at least one of those bitcoins...
Haha mah man!
Haha, I was wondering what shenanigans you were up to on Silk Road, but there you go.
It’s so ironic, and sad, how any freedom loving people — after over a decade of BTC being around, gaining momentum — STILL listen to the very assholes who they deem the enemy of our financial system = Wall Street suits.
Wall Street suits keep parading how BTC is a scam, ponzi, push FUD, constantly… then turn around and BUY into them for their wealthy clients.
The Trucker Movement in Canada, if that’s not proof enough BTC is anathema to the DS Financial System, I have no idea what it’ll take to wake pedes up.
I guess the fact that the banks are in on it so much makes people weary. They can sell off and trigger a huge drop, but will they want to relinquish that power?
I put 5 figured in 7 cryptos one year ago. It’s been up 40%, down 30% and now flat.
If you went in to be long, nothin really wrong with that. Even something like silver is flat over the past year. If you're playing the market though, 40% is a lot not to lock in gains!
Putin breaks the fed or the Apes do it.
Whatever happen win win win!
Multiple flanks, Apes & Ruskies!
Will this kill the USD or the fed?
Interesting post. We’re all thought oil would be the end of the fake Petro dollar. But this post shows that the USD is also susceptible to ahold and if Good flows into Russia then Putin is positioning Russia in a real assets economy. Interesting times ahead for certain.
I prefer SD Bullion as they are top 3 in the USA (along with APMEX and JM Bullion), so they're highly respected. What sets SD Bullion apart is that they don't hedge customer purchases by shorting the go/d/silver futures markets like all the others do - ostensibly pushing prices down. SD is also usually the price leader across the board, although every online dealer runs specials and sales on various products throughout the year, so sometimes others have better prices. I also like SD Bullion because they run two YouTube channels providing market updates and intel to everybody.
Thanks for asking!
Sure thing. Here's a good place to learn a lot about silver (the only sub left on Reddit worthwhile): https://www.reddit.com/r/Wallstreetsilver/
Silver has been suppressed since 1874, as "the people's money". Historically, the silver:gold ratio was always around 10:1 (8:1 to 12:1 range) all around the world. Prior to the Fed, it was around 20:1. In 1933, it was around 25:1. In modern times (last 100 years or so), the best we've seen is about 35:1. Today it is around 80:1. Basically, the banksters decided it was easier for them to stack and store gold, at silver's expense.
Considering gold is also MASSIVELY suppressed, you can only imagine what the real prices of precious metals might be. But suffice it to say, in an unsuppressed market with open price discovery, at a bare minimum, silver should be around $200/oz, assuming gold at $2000/oz, which puts us at the 10:1 ratio.
It's also worth noting that in like 27 different languages, the word "Silver" and "Money" were one and the same, e.g. Spanish -> "Plata". Like all of our language, they've subverted the meaning of "Money" over these past 150 years. Case in point, Americans think "Federal Reserve Debt Notes -> 'Dollars'" are "Money", which they are not, as one of the six attributes of "Money" is that it is a "Store of Value". Which clearly FedBux are not, as "inflation" (aka "theft) deteriorates the value of FedBux, now more than ever. Obviously this demonstrates the modern-day ignorance of humanity, thinking paper FedBux are actually "money".
Most people I follow think gold should really be closer to $100,000/oz, in relation to the fake fiat toilet paper that's been printed up around the world. That would put silver at $10,000/oz if a return to sanity every took place.
Needless to say, when the dam finally breaks, it's safe to say that silver will fall somewhere between $200/oz and $10,000/oz in relative terms. My own hunch is, once fiat finally crashes and we no longer price things in terms of FedBux, you'll be able to buy an attractive acre of land for 1oz of silver.
Net-Net - $25/oz spot price (with premiums, $30-$35/oz) is a steal any way you look at it. Stack and hold fellow patriot. Stack and hold!
I didn’t realize Putin pegged the exchange rate of the Ruble / g of Gold. That is quite interesting!
Great analysis btw, keeping an eye on this.
He hasn't, at least not yet. You can sell your gold to Russia in exchange for rubles, but that's just trading your hard metal for a paper currency that you can't spend on anything except Russian goods. It would be a peg if you could also exchange your rubles for gold so that a ruble would be literally as good as gold, but we aren't there yet.
Thank you!!
Not alone. But other nations will follow suit and some already are. How many holes in the dike can they plug before it fails? We are going to find out.