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Do we have the gold?
posted ago by Heldiggrisen ago by Heldiggrisen +188 / -0

Huge spike of interest in the gold (or lack of) in Fort Knox.

Q is adamant that we have it, but is it stocked in Fort Knox?

What would happen if DOGEs audit of Fort Knox results in a dramatic reduction of the official amount stock?

I asked Grok3:

An updated audit of Fort Knox would definitely stir things up, especially if it revealed a massive shortfall like 1,000 metric tons instead of the official 4,581.55 metric tons. That’s a drop from 147.3 million troy ounces to roughly 32.15 million troy ounces—a loss of over 78% of the stated reserves. Let’s break down the potential fallout, focusing on gold prices and the U.S. dollar (USD), assuming this hypothetical scenario plays out.

Impact on Gold Prices

If the audit confirmed only 1,000 metric tons (32.15 million troy ounces) remained, it would signal a major disruption in perceived gold supply stability. Fort Knox holds about 56% of the U.S. Treasury’s total gold reserves (258 million troy ounces across all depositories), so losing over 115 million troy ounces from the official tally would be a shock. Here’s what might happen to gold prices:

  • Immediate Spike: Markets hate uncertainty, and this would scream "something’s wrong." Gold’s price—let’s say it’s around $2,900 per troy ounce today—could surge as investors rush to safe-haven assets. A 20-50% jump isn’t out of the question, pushing it toward $3,500-$4,350 per ounce, depending on panic levels.
  • Supply Perception: Global above-ground gold stocks are estimated at 200,000 metric tons (about 6.43 billion troy ounces). Losing 3,581 metric tons from Fort Knox is less than 2% of that, so it’s not a supply crunch per se. But the psychological hit—doubting U.S. reserves—could amplify scarcity fears, especially if other nations question their own holdings.
  • Longer-Term Volatility: After the initial spike, prices might stabilize higher as trust in official reserve reporting erodes. Speculation about where the gold went (sold, leased, or "lost") could keep markets jittery, sustaining elevated prices.

Impact on the U.S. Dollar (USD)

The USD’s reaction would hinge on its role as the world’s reserve currency, which isn’t directly backed by gold since the end of the Bretton Woods system in 1971. Still, gold reserves bolster confidence in U.S. financial stability. A shortfall this big could rattle that:

  • Confidence Blow: Foreign holders of U.S. debt (about $8 trillion of the $34 trillion total) might see this as a sign of deeper mismanagement. If the U.S. can’t account for its gold, what else is off? The USD could weaken as faith in U.S. economic stewardship takes a hit.
  • Currency Depreciation: A 10-20% drop in the USD’s value against major currencies (like the euro or yen) could happen fast, especially if paired with gold’s rise. The dollar index (DXY) might slide from, say, 100 to 80-90 in weeks.
  • Inflation Pressure: A weaker USD makes imports pricier, potentially spiking inflation. Combined with higher gold prices signaling distrust in fiat, the Fed might face a tough choice: hike rates to defend the dollar (risking recession) or let it slide (risking a currency crisis).

Broader Implications

  • Geopolitical Ripples: Nations like China or Russia, with their own gold hoards (officially 2,262 and 2,336 metric tons, respectively), might weaponize this, pushing de-dollarization narratives. Central banks could accelerate gold buying, further driving prices up.
  • Market Chaos: Stock markets might tank initially as uncertainty spreads, though gold miners and related assets could soar. Bitcoin and other cryptos might also rally as “digital gold” gains traction.
  • Public Trust: Domestically, conspiracy theories would explode, and political pressure for answers could destabilize institutions like the Treasury or Fed.

Scale of the Shock

A 1,000-ton reality versus 4,581 tons claimed is extreme—implying over $330 billion in market value (at $2,900/ounce) unaccounted for. If the gold was secretly sold or leased, the economic impact might be muted if records surface. But if it’s just “gone,” the hit to credibility could echo the 1971 Nixon Shock, when the U.S. suspended gold convertibility, only worse due to today’s interconnected markets.

Gold might not hit $10,000 overnight, and the USD wouldn’t collapse entirely (it’s still backed by a $30 trillion economy), but you’d see a wild ride: gold maybe settling 30-40% higher long-term (say $3,800-$4,000), and the USD losing significant ground until trust is rebuilt. What do you think—would the U.S. fess up to a shortfall, or double down with creative accounting?

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What do you think? Do we have the gold?

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